New Mexico at Massachusetts - 2023 Matchup Preview

New Mexico Lobos at Massachusetts Minutemen

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UMass -3.5 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
New Mexico 34 - Massachusetts: 31

Lobos (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (8 - 26)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS is playing their 4th straight game
UNM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -0.5 (SP+ UNM -1)
Projected Score: UNM: 25 - UMASS: 24 (49)
UMASS Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNM Travel: 1892 miles, 2 hrs behind

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
UMASS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	New Mexico at Texas A&M	+37.5	48.5	L 10 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/9	New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech	-16.0	51.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-2.5	52.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/23	New Mexico at Massachusetts	+3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/30	New Mexico at Wyoming	+14.5	40.5	L 26 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	New Mexico vs San José State	+6.5	55.0	L 24 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/21	New Mexico vs Hawai'i	+1.5	60.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	New Mexico at Nevada	-1.0	50.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	New Mexico vs UNLV	+10.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+27.5	58.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	New Mexico at Fresno State	+22.5	58.5	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	New Mexico vs Utah State	+4.5	58.5	L 41 - 44	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	-.06	33%	27.1	39%	2.97	121	25%	106	3.04	.17	43%	22.3	47%	40%	3.55	51.2	1.2	1.9
UMASS	.01	32%	11.1	34%	2.8	150	31%	117	2.26	.2	40%	38.6	42%	38%	3.6	66.2	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	27.1	27.5	33%	3.04	1.2	13	227	121	106	3.3	57%	41%	39%	25%	24%	-.06
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	34.7	40.1%	3.6	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	42%	38%	20%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	22.3	26.3	43.2%	3.55	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	47%	40%	17%	.17
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	12.8	32.4%	2.26	1.6	15	267	150	117	3.5	60%	39%	34%	31%	20%	.01

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	28:57	13.1	22%	29%	6.1	51.2	1.2	1.9	5.2	2.1	2	28.8
Massachusetts	12	31:55	14.6	28%	48%	7.6	66.2	1.6	1.6	6.1	1.6	1	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	57%	39%	36.5	121.3	3.3	12	.06	2.97	56%	17%	0.92
UMASS Defense	12	60%	42%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.17	70%	13%	1.14

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	55%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.17	77%	10%	0.92
UMASS Offense	12	60%	34%	43.3	150.3	3.5	10	.03	2.8	69%	14%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	41%	25%	11.5	21.3	105.5	5	9.2	3	9	-.15	1.2	35%	18%	.01	6%	1.9
UMASS Defense	12	39%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.29	1.9	33%	28%	.28	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.24	1.6	27%	23%	.1	7%	1.9
UMASS Offense	12	39%	31%	11.3	23.1	116.9	5.1	10.3	4	14	.01	1.6	37%	19%	.1	6%	2.1

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -5.50 #94
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
2023 Talent Rating: 375.35 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
New Mexico's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -5.50 Massachusetts: -11.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -16.8 Massachusetts: -17.7

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.895 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 565.65 #76
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 25
Massachusetts 24

Projected Total Points: 49

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Massachusetts	31	New Mexico	34	UMass -3.5	New Mexico	48.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Massachusetts	0	0	1 Overs
New Mexico	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#94) UNM at (#121) UMASS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	UMASS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#94	#121
SP+SP+	#124	#125
Perf GradeGrade	#121	#132
OffenseOff	#30	#97
DefenseDef	#136	#135
Spec TeamsST	#133	#136
TalentTal	#117	#76
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

New Mexico Injury Report

Massachusetts Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense


CategoryCat	UNM Off	UMASS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#135
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#12	#129
SP+SP+	#88	#124
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico Run Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#24	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#11	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#113

New Mexico Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#79	#130
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#28	#114
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	UNM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#136
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#59	#130
SP+SP+	#99	#128
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#59	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#135

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#106	#129
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	#135
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'23 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Massachusetts -3.5 (48.5)
New Mexico won at Massachusetts this year (34-31)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Massachusetts in 2023 (34-31)

UNM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dylan Hopkins (Tr)	157	282	56%	2074	11	9	7.4
Devon Dampier	40	64	63%	525	6	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacory Merritt	189	1185	17	6.3	55
Andrew Henry (Tr)	52	350	3	6.7	64
Devon Dampier	59	333	4	5.6	37
Sherod White	37	155	1	4.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caleb Medford (Tr)	30	551	2	18.4	59
Jeremiah Hixon	39	482	5	12.4	59
D.J. Washington	29	336	3	11.6	35
Andrew Erickson	20	263	1	13.2	52

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Troy Reffett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alec Marenco	64	4	1	2	3
Christian Ellis	58	0	0	0	4
Dereck Moore	51	0	0	0	0
Syaire Riley	48	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kyler Drake	25	6	4	1	0
Gabriel Lopez (Tr)	27	4	2	1	0
Hunter Rapolla	19	4	2	1	1
Mihalis Santorineos	20	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Zach Morris	33	2	7
Donte Martin	23	2	6
Christian Ellis	58	0	4

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	139	227	61%	1507	6	6	6.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)	62	101	61%	886	6	3	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	236	1157	12	4.9	47
Gregory DeRosiers	37	301	4	8.1	60
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	11	93	1	8.5	17
Ahmad Haston	16	54	0	3.4	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	57	792	3	13.9	71
George Johnson	35	421	3	12.0	32
Mark Pope (Tr)	33	420	1	12.7	54
Gino Campiotti	21	289	4	13.8	30

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Te'Rai Powell	59	1	0	2	3
Nahji Logan	59	3	1	1	1
Gerrell Johnson	51	2	0	0	0
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1
JB Brown (Tr)	38	5	3	4	1
Derrieon Craig	24	5	2	1	1
Zukudo Igwenagu	29	3	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Juan Lua	23	0	0	0	5
Tyler Rudolph	40	2	1	1	4
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)	31	0	0	1	4