Iowa State at Cincinnati - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#22)Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati Bearcats

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Cincinnati -4 (42.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa State 30 - Cincinnati: 10 (Big 12)

Cyclones (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (47 - 42)
Avg Score : 26 - 23 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 15 MPH
CIN coming off BYE
ISU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -9 (SP+ ISU -16)
Projected Score: ISU: 27 - CIN: 18 (45)
CIN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ISU Travel: 518 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bearcats (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (25 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ISU Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa State vs Northern Iowa	-7.0	40.5	W 30 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Iowa State vs Iowa	+3.5	35.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/16	Iowa State at Ohio	-1.5	42.0	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Iowa State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	36.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Iowa State at Oklahoma	+19.5	48.5	L 20 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa State vs TCU	+6.5	52.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa State at Cincinnati	+4.0	42.5	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Iowa State at Baylor	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	53.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa State at BYU	-7.5	40.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa State vs Texas	+7.5	43.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	Iowa State at Kansas State	+9.5	46.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Iowa State vs Memphis	-10.5	58.0	L 26 - 36	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Cincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky	-21.5	57.5	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	+6.5	44.5	W 27 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Cincinnati vs Miami (OH)	-14.5	44.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/23	Cincinnati vs Oklahoma	+13.0	58.0	L 6 - 20	U	N
Fri 9/29	Cincinnati at BYU	+1.0	47.5	L 27 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Cincinnati vs Iowa State	-4.0	42.5	L 10 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/21	Cincinnati vs Baylor	-2.5	51.5	L 29 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/28	Cincinnati at Oklahoma State	+7.0	53.0	L 13 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/4	Cincinnati vs UCF	+3.5	59.5	L 26 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Cincinnati at Houston	+3.5	53.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Cincinnati at West Virginia	+4.5	52.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Cincinnati vs Kansas	+7.5	59.5	L 16 - 49	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU	#57 (.21)	37% (119)	26.2	32% (132)	2.34 (133)	120	41% (72)	245	3.72 (83)	#32 (.13)	39% (36)	22.8	41% (46)	39% (35)	3.35 (27)	43.5	0.8	1.5
CIN	#63 (.2)	43% (51)	24.1	46% (40)	3.36 (18)	217	41% (73)	209	3.91 (68)	#129 (.32)	41% (56)	30	42% (56)	41% (66)	4.03 (89)	52.6	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU	#62 (.2)	40% (99)		40% (106)	2.83 (102)	150	41% (77)	236	4.23 (37)	#79 (.18)	43% (81)		46% (101)	38% (41)	3.44 (29)	25.9	1.1	1.5
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)		44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)		46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Offense	13	26.2	29	36.8%	3.72	0.8	16	365	120	245	4.1	48%	52%	32%	41%	14%	.21
CIN Defense	12	30	29	41.2%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	41%	19%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Defense	13	22.8	22.7	39.2%	3.35	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	41%	39%	16%	.13
CIN Offense	12	24.1	25.3	43.4%	3.91	1.4	22	426	217	209	5	56%	43%	46%	41%	15%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Iowa State	13	29:09	16.3	39%	63%	4.8	43.5	0.8	1.5	4.8	1.6	1	30.2
Cincinnati	12	31:58	22.3	42%	45%	5.7	52.6	1.4	1.1	5.7	1.5	0	25.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Offense	13	48% (87)	32% (132)	29.4	119.9	4.1	16 (89)	.01 (126)	2.34 (133)	59% (130)	9% (44)	1.18 (5)
CIN Defense	12	50% (68)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.26 (125)	2.99 (47)	75% (82)	12% (25)	1.38 (133)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Defense	13	48% (43)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.05 (20)	2.77 (20)	68% (38)	8% (123)	0.9 (28)
CIN Offense	12	56% (26)	46% (40)	43.1	217.1	5	14 (106)	.24 (24)	3.36 (18)	63% (124)	10% (60)	1.08 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (72)	18.5	29.3	245	8.4	13.2	23 (51)	8 (30)	.42 (25)	1.8 (11)	37% (132)	30% (76)	.26 (91)	5% (44)	2 (100)
CIN Defense	12	49% (66)	41% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.41 (121)	1.8 (120)	35% (26)	34% (118)	.42 (115)	7% (34)	2 (42)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Defense	13	50% (84)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.28 (74)	1.7 (116)	34% (41)	28% (35)	.23 (24)	8% (9)	2 (60)
CIN Offense	12	43% (108)	41% (73)	18.2	30	209	7	11.5	21 (65)	11 (68)	.2 (93)	1.5 (94)	30% (35)	34% (41)	.46 (30)	5% (45)	2.1 (61)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 4.48 #39
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #87
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 4.14 #23
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Iowa State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Iowa State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.6 #34
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #70
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #18

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 4.48 Cincinnati: -2.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 8.6 Cincinnati: -7.2

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: -2.32 #80
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 18.94 #45
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 14.72 #117
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #51
Cincinnati's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Cincinnati's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.7

Iowa State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 27
Cincinnati 18

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Cincinnati 23
Iowa State 22

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Iowa State 29
Cincinnati 24

Total Points: 53

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Cincinnati's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Cincinnati	38	Iowa State	30	Cincinnati -1.5	Cincinnati	55.5	Over
2024	11/16	Iowa State	34	Cincinnati	17	Iowa State -7	Iowa State	52.5	Under
2023	10/14	Cincinnati	10	Iowa State	30	Cincinnati -4	Iowa State	42.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	1	1	1 Overs
Iowa State	2	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0	1 - 2

(#39) ISU at (#80) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ISU	CIN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#39	#80
SP+SP+	#34	#88
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#89
OffenseOff	#79	#43
DefenseDef	#36	#127
Spec TeamsST	#35	#123
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#59	#51

Iowa State Injury Report

Cincinnati Injury Report

Iowa State on Offense


CategoryCat	ISU Off	CIN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#79	#127
SuccessSuc	#119	#56
ExplosiveExp	#1	#132
PPAPPA	#57	#129
PowerPwr	#87	#117
SP+SP+	#70	#82
Pts POPPO	#83	#89
HavocHav	#35	#20

Iowa State Run Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#78	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#132	#56
Run ExplRExp	#5	#133
PPAExp	#126	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#5
TackleTak	-	#80

Iowa State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#120
PPAExp	#25	#121
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#64
F7 HavocF7	#44	#25
DB HavocDB	#44	#34

Cincinnati on Offense


CategoryCat	CIN Off	ISU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#36
SuccessSuc	#51	#36
ExplosiveExp	#85	#88
PPAPPA	#63	#32
PowerPwr	#45	#23
SP+SP+	#95	#18
Pts POPPO	#68	#27
HavocHav	#58	#76

Cincinnati Run Game


CategoryCat	CIN Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#33	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#46
Run ExplRExp	#26	#28
PPAExp	#24	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#41	#20
TackleTak	-	#85

Cincinnati Pass Game


CategoryCat	CIN Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	#73	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#116
PPAExp	#93	#74
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#58	#128
F7 HavocF7	#60	#123
DB HavocDB	#45	#9

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 61° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Cincinnati -4.0 (42.5)
Iowa State won at Cincinnati this year (30-10)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Cincinnati last year (34-17)
Iowa State beat Cincinnati in 2023 (30-10)

ISU's OC Nathan Scheelhaase (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	231	367	63%	3120	23	8	8.5
J.J. Kohl	9	11	82%	23	0	0	2.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Abu Sama III	84	614	6	7.3	77
Eli Sanders	102	477	4	4.7	29
Cartevious Norton	87	343	3	3.9	49
Carson Hansen	22	67	0	3.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Higgins	53	983	6	18.5	75
Jaylin Noel	66	820	7	12.4	82
Benjamin Brahmer	28	352	2	12.6	48
Daniel Jackson	16	260	2	16.3	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	106	4	1	0	5
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Malik Verdon	47	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	22	4	4	8	0
Zach Lovett	11	4	3	6	0
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Trent Jones II	19	3	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Jeremiah Cooper	45	2	0	1	10
T.J. Tampa	44	3	0	1	7

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Emory Jones (Tr)	197	322	61%	2219	18	10	6.9
Brady Lichtenberg	19	34	56%	252	2	1	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	192	1047	5	5.5	68
Emory Jones (Tr)	155	560	4	3.6	25
Myles Montgomery	66	428	3	6.5	63
Ryan Montgomery	54	329	1	6.1	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson (Tr)	58	782	3	13.5	55
Braden Smith (Tr)	43	557	4	13.0	48
Chamon Metayer	23	258	5	11.2	35
Dee Wiggins (Tr)	20	246	2	12.3	39

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn Pace	80	11	2	6	5
Byron Threats	57	3	1	1	6
Dorian Jones (Tr)	56	3	1	1	2
Taj Ward	55	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daniel Grzesiak (Tr)	46	7	4	3	3
Dontay Corleone	39	7	3	2	1
Eric Phillips	14	6	2	5	1
Jowon Briggs	27	6	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Byron Threats	57	3	1	1	6
Jordan Young (Tr)	34	1	0	0	6
Justin Harris	31	3	0	1	6