Iowa State at Ohio - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#14)Iowa State Cyclones at Ohio Bobcats

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -1.5 (42.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Ohio 10 - Iowa State: 7

Cyclones (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (47 - 42)
Avg Score : 26 - 23 (29 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Iowa State -3.5 (SP+ ISU -11)
Projected Score: ISU: 25 - OHIO: 21 (46)
ISU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ISU Travel: 632 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bobcats (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (16 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 16 (25 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.8 - 3.2 (#15)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ISU Players
OHIO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa State vs Northern Iowa	-7.0	40.5	W 30 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Iowa State vs Iowa	+3.5	35.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/16	Iowa State at Ohio	-1.5	42.0	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Iowa State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	36.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Iowa State at Oklahoma	+19.5	48.5	L 20 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa State vs TCU	+6.5	52.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa State at Cincinnati	+4.0	42.5	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Iowa State at Baylor	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	53.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa State at BYU	-7.5	40.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa State vs Texas	+7.5	43.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	Iowa State at Kansas State	+9.5	46.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Iowa State vs Memphis	-10.5	58.0	L 26 - 36	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule

Ohio's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Ohio at San Diego State	+2.0	48.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/2	Ohio vs Long Island University	-34.5	58.0	W 27 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Ohio at Florida Atlantic	+3.5	61.5	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ohio vs Iowa State	+1.5	42.0	W 10 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Ohio at Bowling Green	-13.0	45.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Ohio vs Kent State	-24.5	45.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Ohio at Northern Illinois	-5.5	45.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/21	Ohio vs Western Michigan	-16.5	52.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/28	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	-7.5	39.0	L 16 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/7	Ohio at Buffalo	-9.5	45.5	W 20 - 10	U	Y
Wed 11/15	Ohio vs Central Michigan	-11.5	48.5	W 34 - 20	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Ohio at Akron	-13.5	41.5	W 25 - 14	U	N
Sat 12/16	Ohio vs Georgia Southern	+1.5	48.5	W 41 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU	#57 (.21)	37% (119)	26.2	32% (132)	2.34 (133)	120	41% (72)	245	3.72 (83)	#32 (.13)	39% (36)	22.8	41% (46)	39% (35)	3.35 (27)	43.5	0.8	1.5
OHIO	#76 (.18)	45% (33)	24.3	44% (61)	2.99 (90)	144	48% (17)	204	3.61 (92)	#3 (.02)	35% (8)	15.8	35% (9)	36% (12)	2.45 (2)	51.8	1	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ISU	#62 (.2)	40% (99)		40% (106)	2.83 (102)	150	41% (77)	236	4.23 (37)	#79 (.18)	43% (81)		46% (101)	38% (41)	3.44 (29)	25.9	1.1	1.5
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Offense	13	26.2	29	36.8%	3.72	0.8	16	365	120	245	4.1	48%	52%	32%	41%	14%	.21
OHIO Defense	13	15.8	16.8	35%	2.45	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	35%	36%	21%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ISU Defense	13	22.8	22.7	39.2%	3.35	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	41%	39%	16%	.13
OHIO Offense	13	24.3	24.8	45.2%	3.61	1	21	348	144	204	3.9	52%	47%	44%	48%	15%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Iowa State	13	29:09	16.3	39%	63%	4.8	43.5	0.8	1.5	4.8	1.6	1	30.2
Ohio	13	33:23	20.8	46%	50%	5.6	51.8	1	1.8	7.4	2.8	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Offense	13	48% (87)	32% (132)	29.4	119.9	4.1	16 (89)	.01 (126)	2.34 (133)	59% (130)	9% (44)	1.18 (5)
OHIO Defense	13	44% (10)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (3)	2.54 (8)	70% (47)	15% (3)	1.07 (101)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ISU Defense	13	48% (43)	41% (46)	-	-	-	-	.05 (20)	2.77 (20)	68% (38)	8% (123)	0.9 (28)
OHIO Offense	13	52% (46)	44% (61)	37.3	144.4	3.9	18 (77)	.1 (95)	2.99 (90)	73% (75)	9% (39)	0.81 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Offense	13	52% (44)	41% (72)	18.5	29.3	245	8.4	13.2	23 (51)	8 (30)	.42 (25)	1.8 (11)	37% (132)	30% (76)	.26 (91)	5% (44)	2 (100)
OHIO Defense	13	54% (123)	36% (12)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.14 (14)	1.5 (30)	36% (15)	23% (5)	.19 (15)	5% (94)	1.9 (27)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ISU Defense	13	50% (84)	39% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.28 (74)	1.7 (116)	34% (41)	28% (35)	.23 (24)	8% (9)	2 (60)
OHIO Offense	13	47% (91)	48% (17)	18.4	29.5	203.6	6.9	11.1	16 (92)	9 (40)	.31 (57)	1.4 (123)	30% (31)	35% (30)	.32 (72)	6% (84)	1.7 (131)

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 4.48 #39
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #87
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 4.14 #23
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #59
Iowa State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Iowa State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.6 #34
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #70
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #18

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 4.48 Ohio: 3.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa State: 8.6 Ohio: -2.2

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: 3.225 #42
Ohio's Offense Rating: 16.43 #68
Ohio's Defense Rating: -0.96 #5
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Ohio's 2023 Expected Record: 9.80 - 3.20
Ohio's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #74
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #115
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6 #13

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.7

Iowa State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 25
Ohio 21

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio 36
Iowa State 15

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Ohio 24
Iowa State 22

Total Points: 46

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 15.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Ohio's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Ohio	10	Iowa State	7	Iowa State -1.5	Ohio	42.0	Under
2022	09/17	Iowa State	43	Ohio	10	Iowa State -20	Iowa State	48.0	Over
2003	09/06	Iowa State	48	Ohio	20
2001	09/22	Ohio	28	Iowa State	31
2000	09/01	Iowa State	25	Ohio	15

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio	1	1	1 Overs
Iowa State	4	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#39) ISU at (#42) OHIO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ISU	OHIO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#39	#42
SP+SP+	#34	#74
Perf GradeGrade	#54	#42
OffenseOff	#79	#36
DefenseDef	#36	#30
Spec TeamsST	#35	#135
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#59	#75

Iowa State Injury Report

Ohio Injury Report

Iowa State on Offense


CategoryCat	ISU Off	OHIO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#79	#30
SuccessSuc	#119	#8
ExplosiveExp	#1	#77
PPAPPA	#57	#3
PowerPwr	#87	#5
SP+SP+	#70	#13
Pts POPPO	#83	#2
HavocHav	#35	#9

Iowa State Run Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#78	#41
Run SuccessRSuc	#132	#9
Run ExplRExp	#5	#101
PPAExp	#126	#3
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#8
Stuff RateStuff	#133	#8
TackleTak	-	#92

Iowa State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#72	#12
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#30
PPAExp	#25	#14
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#133	#19
F7 HavocF7	#44	#3
DB HavocDB	#44	#94

Ohio on Offense


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	ISU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#36	#36
SuccessSuc	#33	#36
ExplosiveExp	#129	#88
PPAPPA	#76	#32
PowerPwr	#68	#23
SP+SP+	#115	#18
Pts POPPO	#92	#27
HavocHav	#53	#76

Ohio Run Game


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#89	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	#61	#46
Run ExplRExp	#131	#28
PPAExp	#95	#20
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#90	#20
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#20
TackleTak	-	#85

Ohio Pass Game


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	#17	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#116
PPAExp	#57	#74
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#8	#128
F7 HavocF7	#39	#123
DB HavocDB	#84	#9

Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 76°

Rematch from Week 3
Iowa State 1.5 (42.0)
Ohio won vs Iowa State this year (10-7)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Iowa State in 2023 (10-7)
Iowa State beat Ohio in 2022 (43-10)

ISU's OC Nathan Scheelhaase (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	231	367	63%	3120	23	8	8.5
J.J. Kohl	9	11	82%	23	0	0	2.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Abu Sama III	84	614	6	7.3	77
Eli Sanders	102	477	4	4.7	29
Cartevious Norton	87	343	3	3.9	49
Carson Hansen	22	67	0	3.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Higgins	53	983	6	18.5	75
Jaylin Noel	66	820	7	12.4	82
Benjamin Brahmer	28	352	2	12.6	48
Daniel Jackson	16	260	2	16.3	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	106	4	1	0	5
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Malik Verdon	47	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	22	4	4	8	0
Zach Lovett	11	4	3	6	0
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Trent Jones II	19	3	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Jeremiah Cooper	45	2	0	1	10
T.J. Tampa	44	3	0	1	7

OHIO's OC Scott Isphording (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kurtis Rourke	195	307	64%	2207	11	5	7.2
CJ Harris	25	49	51%	248	2	3	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sieh Bangura	178	811	7	4.6	26
O'Shann Allison	139	452	3	3.3	30
Kurtis Rourke	67	219	4	3.3	25
Parker Navarro	25	178	0	7.1	52

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Wiglusz	55	664	3	12.1	38
Miles Cross	47	599	5	12.7	42
Tyler Walton	37	349	2	9.4	27
Will Kacmarek	22	243	2	11.0	36

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Houston	128	13	3	5	1
Keye Thompson	94	10	2	4	2
Walter Reynolds (Tr)	67	2	0	0	1
Austin Brawley	41	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Bradley Weaver	34	13	6	7
Vonnie Watkins	33	8	5	11
Shane Bonner	29	9	5	6
Rayyan Buell	30	13	5	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Justin Birchette	29	3	0	8
Jeremiah Wood	26	3	2	4
Austin Brawley	41	1	0	2