Oklahoma State at Iowa State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Iowa State -3.5 (36.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa State 34 - Oklahoma State: 27 (Big 12)

Cowboys (10 - 4) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (158 - 76)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (10 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 8.4 (#86)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ISU is playing their 4th straight game
OKST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -6.5 (SP+ ISU -3)
Projected Score: OKST: 18 - ISU: 25 (43)
ISU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
OKST Travel: 446 miles

Cyclones (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (47 - 42)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OKST Players
ISU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas	-25.5	59.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/9	Oklahoma State at Arizona State	-2.5	53.5	W 27 - 15	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oklahoma State vs South Alabama	-7.0	49.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oklahoma State at Iowa State	+3.5	36.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6	Oklahoma State vs Kansas State	+11.5	53.5	W 29 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Oklahoma State vs Kansas	+3.0	54.0	W 39 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oklahoma State at West Virginia	+3.0	48.0	W 48 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	53.0	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma	+6.0	61.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Oklahoma State at UCF	-2.5	63.5	L 3 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oklahoma State at Houston	-6.5	56.5	W 43 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Oklahoma State vs BYU	-15.5	55.5	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/2	Oklahoma State vs Texas	+14.0	55.0	L 21 - 49	O	N
Wed 12/27	Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	56.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa State vs Northern Iowa	-7.0	40.5	W 30 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Iowa State vs Iowa	+3.5	35.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/16	Iowa State at Ohio	-1.5	42.0	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Iowa State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	36.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Iowa State at Oklahoma	+19.5	48.5	L 20 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa State vs TCU	+6.5	52.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa State at Cincinnati	+4.0	42.5	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Iowa State at Baylor	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	53.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa State at BYU	-7.5	40.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa State vs Texas	+7.5	43.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	Iowa State at Kansas State	+9.5	46.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Iowa State vs Memphis	-10.5	58.0	L 26 - 36	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	.14	40%	14.2	40%	2.86	126	40%	280	4.08	.2	40%	33.3	41%	39%	3.77	33.5	1.8	1.5
ISU	.12	39%	27.4	37%	2.57	107	42%	262	3.51	.11	40%	20.2	39%	41%	3.26	45.7	1.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Offense	13	14.2	10.2	39.6%	4.08	1.8	22	405	126	280	3.4	45%	54%	40%	40%	18%	.14
ISU Defense	12	20.2	18.8	39.8%	3.26	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	39%	41%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Defense	13	33.3	41.4	39.5%	3.77	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	41%	39%	16%	.2
ISU Offense	12	27.4	32.3	39.2%	3.51	1.8	20	369	107	262	3.3	41%	58%	37%	42%	15%	.12

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma State	13	27:46	22.2	35%	31%	3.5	33.5	1.8	1.5	6.6	1.9	2	28.8
Iowa State	12	32:07	20.4	42%	56%	5.6	45.7	1.8	1.8	5.3	1.5	0	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Offense	13	45%	40%	36.6	125.6	3.4	20	.07	2.86	73%	9%	0.89
ISU Defense	12	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.86	70%	11%	0.75

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Defense	13	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.92	57%	10%	1.12
ISU Offense	12	41%	37%	32.8	107.2	3.3	10	-.02	2.57	60%	10%	0.81

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Offense	13	54%	40%	22.5	40.3	279.5	6.9	12.5	24	18	.21	1.6	33%	31%	.32	9%	2.2
ISU Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.24	1.4	31%	23%	.17	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Defense	13	52%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.29	1.7	35%	32%	.48	6%	2.3
ISU Offense	12	58%	42%	26.1	39.9	261.8	6.6	10	19	15	.26	1.5	34%	32%	.31	5%	1.9

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -0.67 #67
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 14.94 #82
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 10.18 #75
2023 Talent Rating: 649.79 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Oklahoma State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.60 - 8.40
Oklahoma State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #31
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -0.67 Iowa State: 9.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: 5.9 Iowa State: 8.6

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 9.04 #39
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #87
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 4.14 #23
2023 Talent Rating: 638.87 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Iowa State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Iowa State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.6 #34
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #70
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #18

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.2
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.4

Oklahoma State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 25
Oklahoma State 18

Projected Total Points: 43

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Oklahoma State	13	Iowa State	20	Iowa State -13.5	Oklahoma State	47.5	Under
2023	09/23	Iowa State	34	Oklahoma State	27	Iowa State -3.5	Iowa State	36.0	Over
2022	11/12	Oklahoma State	20	Iowa State	14	Iowa State -2.5	Oklahoma State	47.5	Under
2021	10/23	Iowa State	24	Oklahoma State	21	Iowa State -7.5	Oklahoma State	47.0	Under
2020	10/24	Oklahoma State	24	Iowa State	21	Oklahoma State -3.0	Push	54.0	Under
2019	10/26	Iowa State	27	Oklahoma State	34	Iowa State -11.5	Oklahoma State	64.5	Under
2018	10/06	Oklahoma State	42	Iowa State	48	Oklahoma State -10	Iowa State	55.0	Over
2017	11/11	Iowa State	42	Oklahoma State	49	Oklahoma State -7.5	Iowa State	61.0	Over
2016	10/08	Oklahoma State	38	Iowa State	31	Oklahoma State -16.5	Iowa State	68.5	Over
2015	11/14	Iowa State	31	Oklahoma State	35	Oklahoma State -13.5	Iowa State	56.5	Over
2014	10/04	Oklahoma State	37	Iowa State	20	Oklahoma State -17	Push	0
2013	10/26	Iowa State	27	Oklahoma State	58	Oklahoma State -14	Oklahoma State	0
2012	10/20	Oklahoma State	31	Iowa State	10
2011	11/18	Iowa State	37	Oklahoma State	31
2009	11/07	Iowa State	8	Oklahoma State	34
2008	11/01	Oklahoma State	59	Iowa State	17
2005	10/22	Iowa State	37	Oklahoma State	10
2004	10/02	Oklahoma State	36	Iowa State	7
2001	10/20	Iowa State	28	Oklahoma State	14
2000	10/13	Oklahoma State	26	Iowa State	33

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	8	5	5 Overs
Oklahoma State	12	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 8	5 - 5	1 - 4	4 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 12	5 - 5	1 - 4	4 - 1

(#67) OKST at (#39) ISU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKST	ISU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#67	#39
SP+SP+	#42	#34
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#54
OffenseOff	#42	#79
DefenseDef	#97	#36
Spec TeamsST	#16	#35
TalentTal	#56	#60
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#59

Oklahoma State Injury Report

Iowa State Injury Report

Oklahoma State on Offense


CategoryCat	OKST Off	ISU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#42	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#82	#23
SP+SP+	#31	#18
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oklahoma State Run Game


CategoryCat	OKST Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#33	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#104	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#85

Oklahoma State Pass Game


CategoryCat	OKST Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#52	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Iowa State on Offense


CategoryCat	ISU Off	OKST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#79	#97
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#87	#75
SP+SP+	#70	#75
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Iowa State Run Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	OKST Def
Run GameRun	#78	#86
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#79

Iowa State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	OKST Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#133	#61
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Iowa State -3.5 (36.0)
Iowa State won vs Oklahoma State this year (34-27)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat Oklahoma State last year (20-13)
Iowa State beat Oklahoma State in 2023 (34-27)

OKST's OC Kasey Dunn (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alan Bowman (Tr)	304	501	61%	3460	15	14	6.9
Gunnar Gundy	21	34	62%	202	1	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ollie Gordon	285	1731	21	6.1	75
Jaden Nixon	50	197	1	3.9	34
Elijah Collins (Tr)	30	142	2	4.7	26
Gunnar Gundy	15	49	1	3.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Presley	100	988	6	9.9	29
Rashod Owens	63	895	5	14.2	45
Leon Johnson III (Tr)	33	539	1	16.3	67
Jaden Bray	30	382	2	12.7	45

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Jim Bob Clements (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nickolas Martin	140	16	6	8	0
Kendal Daniels	105	6	2	0	1
Trey Rucker	100	4	0	0	1
Collin Oliver	73	16	6	9	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nickolas Martin	140	16	6	8	0
Collin Oliver	73	16	6	9	5
Anthony Goodlow (Tr)	42	7	3	1	0
Nathan Latu	31	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Collin Oliver	73	16	6	9	5
Dylahn McKinney	38	0	0	0	5
Korie Black	17	1	0	0	5

ISU's OC Nathan Scheelhaase (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	231	367	63%	3120	23	8	8.5
J.J. Kohl	9	11	82%	23	0	0	2.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Abu Sama III	84	614	6	7.3	77
Eli Sanders	102	477	4	4.7	29
Cartevious Norton	87	343	3	3.9	49
Carson Hansen	22	67	0	3.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Higgins	53	983	6	18.5	75
Jaylin Noel	66	820	7	12.4	82
Benjamin Brahmer	28	352	2	12.6	48
Daniel Jackson	16	260	2	16.3	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	106	4	1	0	5
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Malik Verdon	47	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	22	4	4	8	0
Zach Lovett	11	4	3	6	0
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Trent Jones II	19	3	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Jeremiah Cooper	45	2	0	1	10
T.J. Tampa	44	3	0	1	7