TCU at Iowa State - 2023 Matchup Preview

TCU Horned Frogs at Iowa State Cyclones

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
TCU -6.5 (52.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa State 27 - TCU: 14 (Big 12)

Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (15 - 3)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (26 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#71)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ISU is playing their 6th straight game
TCU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Iowa State -3.5 (SP+ ISU -1)
Projected Score: TCU: 24 - ISU: 28 (52)
TCU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TCU Travel: 675 miles

Cyclones (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (47 - 42)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TCU Players
ISU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

TCU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	TCU vs Colorado	-20.5	59.5	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	TCU vs Nicholls	-41.5	59.5	W 41 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	TCU at Houston	-7.5	64.0	W 36 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	TCU vs SMU	-7.0	63.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	TCU vs West Virginia	-14.0	52.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/7	TCU at Iowa State	-6.5	52.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	TCU vs BYU	-5.0	52.5	W 44 - 11	O	Y
Sat 10/21	TCU at Kansas State	+5.5	60.0	L 3 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2	TCU at Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	TCU vs Texas	+13.0	56.0	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/18	TCU vs Baylor	-13.0	62.0	W 42 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	TCU at Oklahoma	+12.5	66.5	L 45 - 69	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule

Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa State vs Northern Iowa	-7.0	40.5	W 30 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Iowa State vs Iowa	+3.5	35.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/16	Iowa State at Ohio	-1.5	42.0	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Iowa State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	36.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Iowa State at Oklahoma	+19.5	48.5	L 20 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa State vs TCU	+6.5	52.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa State at Cincinnati	+4.0	42.5	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Iowa State at Baylor	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	53.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa State at BYU	-7.5	40.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa State vs Texas	+7.5	43.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	Iowa State at Kansas State	+9.5	46.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Iowa State vs Memphis	-10.5	58.0	L 26 - 36	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU	.3	44%	30.7	47%	3.15	193	40%	262	4.28	.17	41%	25.3	45%	38%	4.36	49.6	1.1	1.5
ISU	.12	39%	27.4	37%	2.57	107	42%	262	3.51	.11	40%	20.2	39%	41%	3.26	45.7	1.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Offense	15	30.7	25.5	43.5%	4.28	1.1	21	455	193	262	5.1	52%	48%	47%	40%	13%	.3
ISU Defense	12	20.2	18.8	39.8%	3.26	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	39%	41%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TCU Defense	15	25.3	26.2	41.3%	4.36	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	38%	16%	.17
ISU Offense	12	27.4	32.3	39.2%	3.51	1.8	20	369	107	262	3.3	41%	58%	37%	42%	15%	.12

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
TCU	15	30:25	21	40%	52%	4.8	49.6	1.1	1.5	4.7	2	6	30.6
Iowa State	12	32:07	20.4	42%	56%	5.6	45.7	1.8	1.8	5.3	1.5	0	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Offense	15	52%	47%	37.7	193.3	5.1	37	.22	3.15	72%	8%	1.07
ISU Defense	12	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.86	70%	11%	0.75

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TCU Defense	15	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.18	2.99	72%	8%	0.98
ISU Offense	12	41%	37%	32.8	107.2	3.3	10	-.02	2.57	60%	10%	0.81

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Offense	15	48%	40%	19.5	30.3	261.7	8.7	13.5	33	8	.38	1.9	30%	32%	.45	5%	2.4
ISU Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.24	1.4	31%	23%	.17	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TCU Defense	15	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.2	1.8	32%	27%	.3	7%	2.3
ISU Offense	12	58%	42%	26.1	39.9	261.8	6.6	10	19	15	.26	1.5	34%	32%	.31	5%	1.9

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 3.50 #44
TCU's Offense Rating: 20.84 #32
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.76 #97
2023 Talent Rating: 768.25 #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 31% #24
TCU's 2023 Expected Record: 6.40 - 5.60
TCU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #40
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #27
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 3.50 Iowa State: 9.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 7.5 Iowa State: 8.6

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 9.04 #39
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #87
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 4.14 #23
2023 Talent Rating: 638.87 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Iowa State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Iowa State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.6 #34
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #70
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #18

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

TCU's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa State 28
TCU 24

Projected Total Points: 52

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	TCU	17	Iowa State	20	TCU -7.5	Iowa State	58.5	Under
2023	10/07	Iowa State	27	TCU	14	TCU -6.5	Iowa State	52.5	Under
2022	11/26	TCU	62	Iowa State	14	TCU -9.5	TCU	46.0	Over
2021	11/26	Iowa State	48	TCU	14	Iowa State -16	Iowa State	61.5	Over
2020	09/26	TCU	34	Iowa State	37	Iowa State -4.5	TCU	43.5	Over
2019	10/05	Iowa State	49	TCU	24	Iowa State -3	Iowa State	45.0	Over
2018	09/29	TCU	17	Iowa State	14	TCU -11	Iowa State	44.5	Under
2017	10/28	Iowa State	14	TCU	7	TCU -7	Iowa State	48.5	Under
2016	09/17	TCU	41	Iowa State	20	TCU -23.5	Iowa State	60.5	Over
2015	10/17	Iowa State	21	TCU	45	TCU -18	TCU	68.0	Under
2014	12/06	TCU	55	Iowa State	3	TCU -33	TCU	0
2013	11/09	Iowa State	17	TCU	21	TCU -8	Iowa State	0
2012	10/06	TCU	23	Iowa State	37
2005	12/31	Iowa State	24	TCU	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	7	8	5 Overs
TCU	7	4	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 6	8 - 4	4 - 3	4 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 8	4 - 8	1 - 4	3 - 4

(#44) TCU at (#39) ISU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TCU	ISU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#44	#39
SP+SP+	#40	#34
Perf GradeGrade	#51	#54
OffenseOff	#38	#79
DefenseDef	#73	#36
Spec TeamsST	#61	#35
TalentTal	#19	#60
Blue ChipsBC%	#24	#59

TCU Injury Report

Iowa State Injury Report

TCU on Offense


CategoryCat	TCU Off	ISU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#38	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#32	#23
SP+SP+	#27	#18
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

TCU Run Game


CategoryCat	TCU Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#41	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#85

TCU Pass Game


CategoryCat	TCU Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#44	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#56	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Iowa State on Offense


CategoryCat	ISU Off	TCU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#79	#73
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#87	#97
SP+SP+	#70	#57
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Iowa State Run Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#78	#42
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#75

Iowa State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#133	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
TCU 6.5 (52.5)
Iowa State won vs TCU this year (27-14)

Previous Matchups
Iowa State beat TCU last year (20-17)
Iowa State beat TCU in 2023 (27-14)

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	186	299	62%	2210	15	9	7.4
Chandler Morris	132	202	65%	1528	12	5	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emani Bailey	223	1209	8	5.4	74
Chandler Morris	45	249	3	5.5	32
Trey Sanders (Tr)	48	176	6	3.7	18
Savion Williams	11	62	0	5.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Savion Williams	41	573	4	14.0	42
John Paul Richardson	46	536	3	11.7	59
Jared Wiley	47	520	8	11.1	81
Jaylon Robinson (Tr)	32	397	1	12.4	29

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Joe Gillespie (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamoi Hodge	80	7	3	7	2
Namdi Obiazor	75	6	4	3	2
Shadrach Banks	57	9	1	2	0
Nook Bradford	53	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Namdi Obiazor	75	6	4	3	2
Paul Oyewale	21	5	3	1	0
Jamoi Hodge	80	7	3	7	2
Caleb Fox	25	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Josh Newton	29	0	5
Nook Bradford	53	0	5
Mark Perry	52	2	4

ISU's OC Nathan Scheelhaase (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	231	367	63%	3120	23	8	8.5
J.J. Kohl	9	11	82%	23	0	0	2.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Abu Sama III	84	614	6	7.3	77
Eli Sanders	102	477	4	4.7	29
Cartevious Norton	87	343	3	3.9	49
Carson Hansen	22	67	0	3.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Higgins	53	983	6	18.5	75
Jaylin Noel	66	820	7	12.4	82
Benjamin Brahmer	28	352	2	12.6	48
Daniel Jackson	16	260	2	16.3	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	106	4	1	0	5
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Malik Verdon	47	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	22	4	4	8	0
Zach Lovett	11	4	3	6	0
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Trent Jones II	19	3	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Jeremiah Cooper	45	2	0	1	10
T.J. Tampa	44	3	0	1	7