Cincinnati at Houston - 2023 Matchup Preview
Cincinnati logo

Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars

Houston logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (7:00 PM EST)
Houston -3.5 (53.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Cincinnati 24 - Houston: 14  (Big 12)

 
Bearcats (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (31 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
HOU is playing their 5th straight game
CIN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Cincinnati -0  (SP+ CIN -1)
Projected Score: CIN: 27 - HOU: 27 (55)
HOU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
CIN Travel: 895 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Cougars (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dana Holgorsen (28 - 22)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#122)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Cincinnati's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Cincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky-21.5W66–1357.5W66–13OY
Sat 9/9Cincinnati at Pittsburgh+6.5W27–2144.5W27–21OY
Sat 9/16Cincinnati vs Miami (OH)-14.5L24–3144.5L24–31ON
Sat 9/23Cincinnati vs Oklahoma+13.0L6–2058.0L6–20UN
Fri 9/29Cincinnati at BYU+1.0L27–3547.5L27–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14Cincinnati vs Iowa State-4.0L10–3042.5L10–30UN
Sat 10/21Cincinnati vs Baylor-2.5L29–3251.5L29–32ON
Sat 10/28Cincinnati at Oklahoma State+7.0L13–4553.0L13–45ON
Sat 11/4Cincinnati vs UCF+3.5L26–2859.5L26–28UY
Sat 11/11Cincinnati at Houston+3.5W24–1453.5W24–14UY
Sat 11/18Cincinnati at West Virginia+4.5L21–4252.5L21–42ON
Sat 11/25Cincinnati vs Kansas+7.5L16–4959.5L16–49ON
Record: 3–9ATS: 4–8O/U: 8–4Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
Houston's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2Houston vs UTSA+2.5W17–1459.5W17–14UY
Sat 9/9Houston at Rice-7.5L41–4351.0L41–43ON
Sat 9/16Houston vs TCU+7.5L13–3664.0L13–36UN
Sat 9/23Houston vs Sam Houston-11.5W38–737.0W38–7OY
Sat 9/30Houston at Texas Tech+8.5L28–4952.0L28–49ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/12Houston vs West Virginia+3.0W41–3949.5W41–39OY
Sat 10/21Houston vs Texas+24.0L24–3160.5L24–31UY
Sat 10/28Houston at Kansas State+17.5L0–4161.0L0–41UN
Sat 11/4Houston at Baylor+3.0W25–2458.5W25–24UY
Sat 11/11Houston vs Cincinnati-3.5L14–2453.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/18Houston vs Oklahoma State+6.5L30–4356.5L30–43ON
Sat 11/25Houston at UCF+15.5L13–2761.5L13–27UY
Record: 4–8ATS: 6–6O/U: 5–7Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CIN.1840%30.339%3.0113041%2433.8.0937%25.640%35%3.5264.41.11.8
HOU.3347%29.146%3.3814249%3144.76.2243%22.842%44%3.8669.91.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CIN Offense1330.330.839.5%3.81.119372130243446%53%39%41%17%.18
HOU Defense1322.824.243%3.861.2 - - - - - 47%53%42%44%18%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CIN Defense1325.635.337.2%3.521.8 - - - - - 54%45%40%35%20%.09
HOU Offense1329.125.747.5%4.761.5234561423144.642%57%46%49%14%.33

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Cincinnati1328:1418.536%65%7.564.41.11.86.72.7329.2
Houston1329:5223.545%67%7.869.91.51.26.82.2330.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CIN Offense1346%39%32.8129.7419.13.0168%10%0.96
HOU Defense1347%42% - - - - .132.7983%12%1.08
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CIN Defense1354%40% - - - - .13.0182%13%1.01
HOU Offense1342%46%30.8142.14.617.193.3869%9%1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CIN Offense1353%41%19.232.1242.77.612.7228.281.635%32%.376%1.9
HOU Defense1353%44% - - - - - - 7.331.634%35%.386%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CIN Defense1345%35% - - - - - - 11.121.634%28%.37%2.1
HOU Offense1357%49%25.938.53148.212.14010.481.630%40%.645%2

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: -2.44  #80
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 18.94  #45
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 14.72  #117
2023 Talent Rating: 688.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #51
Cincinnati's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Cincinnati's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2  #88
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #95
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #82

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 617.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: -2.44   Houston: -4.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: -7.2   Houston: -8.3




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: -4.895  #97
Houston's Offense Rating: 13.48  #95
Houston's Defense Rating: 14.57  #113
2023 Talent Rating: 440.00  #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 8  #53
Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 3.80 - 8.20
Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3  #95
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #73
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.5  #104

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 617.61


Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Cincinnati's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Cincinnati 27
Houston 27

Projected Total Points: 55
Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/21Cincinnati34Houston0Cincinnati -4Cincinnati47.5Under
202311/11Houston14Cincinnati24Houston -3.5Cincinnati53.5Under
202112/04Cincinnati35Houston20Cincinnati -10.5Cincinnati52.5Over
202011/07Cincinnati38Houston10Cincinnati -12.5Cincinnati51.5Under
201910/12Houston23Cincinnati38Cincinnati -10Cincinnati50.5Over
201609/15Cincinnati16Houston40Houston -7.5Houston63.0Under
201511/07Houston33Cincinnati30Houston -9Cincinnati70.5Under
201412/06Cincinnati38Houston31Cincinnati -7Push0
201311/23Houston17Cincinnati24Houston -2.5Cincinnati0
200211/16Cincinnati47Houston14
200110/20Houston28Cincinnati29
200010/06Cincinnati48Houston31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston212 Overs
Cincinnati1075 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 53 - 53 - 30 - 2
Road Teams5 - 75 - 32 - 03 - 3

(#80) CIN at (#97) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCINHOU
Game ControlGC #34 #63
Momentum ControlMC #12 #63
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #80 #97
SP+SP+ #88 #95
Perf GradeGrade #89 #99
OffenseOff #43 #72
DefenseDef #127 #113
Spec TeamsST #123 #111
TalentTal #52 #103
Blue ChipsBC% #51 #53
Cincinnati on Offense
CategoryCat
CIN OffHOU Def
Game ControlGC #40 #63
Momentum ControlMC #39 #52
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #113
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #45 #113
SP+SP+ #95 #104
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Cincinnati Run Game
CategoryCat
CIN OffHOU Def
Run GameRun #33 #92
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #34 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #101
Cincinnati Pass Game
CategoryCat
CIN OffHOU Def
Pass GamePass #92 #114
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #58 #122
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Houston on Offense
CategoryCatHOU OffCIN Def
Game ControlGC #64 #32
Momentum ControlMC #72 #9
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #127
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #95 #117
SP+SP+ #73 #82
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Houston Run Game
CategoryCat
HOU OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #102 #120
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #62 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #80
Houston Pass Game
CategoryCatHOU OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #63 #127
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #46 #64
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
Houston -3.5 (53.5)
Cincinnati won at Houston this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat Houston in 2024 (34-0)
Cincinnati beat Houston in 2023 (24-14)

  
CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Emory Jones (Tr)19732261%221918106.9
Brady Lichtenberg193456%252217.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Kiner192104755.568
Emory Jones (Tr)15556043.625
Myles Montgomery6642836.563
Ryan Montgomery5432916.129
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xzavier Henderson (Tr)58782313.555
Braden Smith (Tr)43557413.048
Chamon Metayer23258511.235
Dee Wiggins (Tr)20246212.339

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshawn Pace8011265
Byron Threats573116
Dorian Jones (Tr)563112
Taj Ward554102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Grzesiak (Tr)467433
Dontay Corleone397321
Eric Phillips146251
Jowon Briggs276220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Byron Threats573116
Jordan Young (Tr)341006
Justin Harris313016

HOU's OC Dana Holgorsen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Donovan Smith (Tr)25539664%280022137.1
Ui Ale4850%69108.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Parker Jenkins9946434.731
Donovan Smith (Tr)13842963.135
Stacy Sneed4828215.958
Tony Mathis (Tr)4117004.123
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Sam Brown61815313.453
Joseph Manjack46577612.549
Matthew Golden38404610.639
Stephon Johnson Jr.23269311.749

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Doug Belk (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
A.J. Haulcy901012
Malik Robinson732021
Jamal Morris592025
Isaiah Hamilton (Tr)462014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nelson Ceaser3610730
Jamaree Caldwell269700
David Ugwoegbu (Tr)416323
Anthony Holmes Jr.205330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamal Morris592025
Malik Fleming (Tr)392005
Isaiah Hamilton (Tr)462014