UCF at Cincinnati - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -3.5 (59.5) (-185) Open: -4.5
UCF 28 - Cincinnati: 26 (Big 12)

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CIN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UCF -6.5 (SP+ UCF -11.5)
Projected Score: UCF: 33 - CIN: 26 (59)
UCF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UCF Travel: 752 miles

Bearcats (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (25 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
CIN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Cincinnati's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Cincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky	-21.5	57.5	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	+6.5	44.5	W 27 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Cincinnati vs Miami (OH)	-14.5	44.5	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/23	Cincinnati vs Oklahoma	+13.0	58.0	L 6 - 20	U	N
Fri 9/29	Cincinnati at BYU	+1.0	47.5	L 27 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Cincinnati vs Iowa State	-4.0	42.5	L 10 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/21	Cincinnati vs Baylor	-2.5	51.5	L 29 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/28	Cincinnati at Oklahoma State	+7.0	53.0	L 13 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/4	Cincinnati vs UCF	+3.5	59.5	L 26 - 28	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Cincinnati at Houston	+3.5	53.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Cincinnati at West Virginia	+4.5	52.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Cincinnati vs Kansas	+7.5	59.5	L 16 - 49	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#16 (.31)	45% (41)	31.3	47% (27)	3.28 (36)	228	43% (57)	259	3.76 (80)	#58 (.16)	47% (125)	25.8	51% (128)	43% (80)	3.79 (69)	50.1	1.4	1.2
CIN	#63 (.2)	43% (51)	24.1	46% (40)	3.36 (18)	217	41% (73)	209	3.91 (68)	#129 (.32)	41% (56)	30	42% (56)	41% (66)	4.03 (89)	52.6	1.4	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
CIN	#59 (.21)	45% (43)		44% (67)	3.03 (69)	185	45% (32)	237	3.33 (118)	#75 (.18)	42% (76)		46% (94)	39% (43)	3.51 (40)	44.4	1.5	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	13	31.3	25.2	44.9%	3.76	1.4	23	487	228	259	5.6	56%	43%	47%	43%	15%	.31
CIN Defense	12	30	29	41.2%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	41%	19%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	13	25.8	32	46.6%	3.79	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	51%	43%	12%	.16
CIN Offense	12	24.1	25.3	43.4%	3.91	1.4	22	426	217	209	5	56%	43%	46%	41%	15%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	13	28:52	23.1	49%	57%	6.1	50.1	1.4	1.2	4.2	1.7	0	26.6
Cincinnati	12	31:58	22.3	42%	45%	5.7	52.6	1.4	1.1	5.7	1.5	0	25.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	13	56% (24)	47% (27)	40.7	228.2	5.6	28 (25)	.24 (19)	3.28 (36)	71% (93)	9% (48)	1.14 (10)
CIN Defense	12	50% (68)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.26 (125)	2.99 (47)	75% (82)	12% (25)	1.38 (133)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	13	56% (121)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.23 (110)	3.39 (117)	81% (111)	7% (127)	0.99 (62)
CIN Offense	12	56% (26)	46% (40)	43.1	217.1	5	14 (106)	.24 (24)	3.36 (18)	63% (124)	10% (60)	1.08 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	13	43% (111)	43% (57)	17.6	28.2	258.8	9.2	14.7	24 (41)	11 (68)	.48 (12)	1.9 (5)	30% (30)	37% (15)	.52 (17)	6% (51)	2.2 (27)
CIN Defense	12	49% (66)	41% (66)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.41 (121)	1.8 (120)	35% (26)	34% (118)	.42 (115)	7% (34)	2 (42)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	13	43% (11)	43% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.17 (17)	1.4 (4)	29% (120)	34% (113)	.23 (33)	5% (120)	1.7 (1)
CIN Offense	12	43% (108)	41% (73)	18.2	30	209	7	11.5	21 (65)	11 (68)	.2 (93)	1.5 (94)	30% (35)	34% (41)	.46 (30)	5% (45)	2.1 (61)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 3.43 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 3.43 Cincinnati: -2.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.5 Cincinnati: -7.2

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: -2.32 #80
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 18.94 #45
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 14.72 #117
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #51
Cincinnati's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Cincinnati's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UCF Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 33
Cincinnati 26

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
UCF 30
Cincinnati 30

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
UCF 29
Cincinnati 27

Total Points: 56

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Cincinnati's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Cincinnati	20	UCF	11	Cincinnati -10	UCF	55.5	Under
2024	10/12	UCF	13	Cincinnati	19	UCF -2	Cincinnati	58.0	Under
2023	11/04	Cincinnati	26	UCF	28	UCF -3.5	Cincinnati	59.5	Under
2022	10/29	UCF	25	Cincinnati	21	UCF -1.5	UCF	55.5	Under
2021	10/16	Cincinnati	56	UCF	21	Cincinnati -21.5	Cincinnati	56.0	Over
2020	11/21	UCF	33	Cincinnati	36	Cincinnati -4.5	UCF	66.0	Over
2019	10/04	Cincinnati	27	UCF	24	UCF -3.5	Cincinnati	64.0	Under
2018	11/17	UCF	38	Cincinnati	13	UCF -7.5	UCF	60.0	Under
2017	10/07	Cincinnati	23	UCF	51	UCF -15	UCF	52.5	Over
2016	11/12	UCF	24	Cincinnati	3	UCF -10	UCF	55.0	Under
2015	10/31	Cincinnati	52	UCF	7	Cincinnati -20.5	Cincinnati	61.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Cincinnati	6	5	3 Overs
UCF	5	6	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	8 - 3	5 - 2	3 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	3 - 8	1 - 3	2 - 5

(#46) UCF at (#80) CIN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	CIN
Power RatePwr	#46	#80
SP+SP+	#48	#88
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#89
OffenseOff	#21	#43
DefenseDef	#87	#127
Spec TeamsST	#109	#123
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#51

UCF Injury Report

Cincinnati Injury Report

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
Perf GradePerf	#21	#127
SuccessSuc	#41	#56
ExplosiveExp	#3	#132
PPAPPA	#16	#129
PowerPwr	#23	#117
SP+SP+	#35	#82
Pts POPPO	#80	#89
HavocHav	#47	#20

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
Run GameRun	#10	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#56
Run ExplRExp	#10	#133
PPAExp	#19	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#47
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#5
TackleTak	-	#80

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	CIN Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#66
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#120
PPAExp	#12	#121
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#14	#64
F7 HavocF7	#48	#25
DB HavocDB	#51	#34

Cincinnati on Offense


CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#43	#87
SuccessSuc	#51	#125
ExplosiveExp	#85	#7
PPAPPA	#63	#58
PowerPwr	#45	#89
SP+SP+	#95	#54
Pts POPPO	#68	#69
HavocHav	#58	#128

Cincinnati Run Game


CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#33	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	#40	#128
Run ExplRExp	#26	#62
PPAExp	#24	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#41	#78
TackleTak	-	#88

Cincinnati Pass Game


CategoryCat	CIN Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#73	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#94	#4
PPAExp	#93	#17
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#58	#94
F7 HavocF7	#60	#127
DB HavocDB	#45	#120

Program Comparison
CIN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 65° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 10
UCF 3.5 (59.5)
UCF won at Cincinnati this year (28-26)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat UCF last year (19-13)
UCF beat Cincinnati in 2023 (28-26)
UCF beat Cincinnati in 2022 (25-21)

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Rhys Plumlee	161	256	63%	2271	15	8	8.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)	64	102	63%	1065	9	3	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	226	1416	16	6.3	92
Johnny Richardson	87	573	1	6.6	79
John Rhys Plumlee	106	505	5	4.8	32
Xavier Townsend	15	163	0	10.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Baker	52	1139	7	21.9	86
Kobe Hudson	44	900	8	20.5	75
Xavier Townsend	33	325	3	9.8	37
Alec Holler	24	244	2	10.2	38

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Walter Yates	68	1	0	0	2
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1
Malachi Lawrence	24	9	6	5	1
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Corey Thornton	22	0	0	6
Quadric Bullard	28	0	0	3
Brandon Adams	19	1	1	2

CIN's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Emory Jones (Tr)	197	322	61%	2219	18	10	6.9
Brady Lichtenberg	19	34	56%	252	2	1	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Corey Kiner	192	1047	5	5.5	68
Emory Jones (Tr)	155	560	4	3.6	25
Myles Montgomery	66	428	3	6.5	63
Ryan Montgomery	54	329	1	6.1	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xzavier Henderson (Tr)	58	782	3	13.5	55
Braden Smith (Tr)	43	557	4	13.0	48
Chamon Metayer	23	258	5	11.2	35
Dee Wiggins (Tr)	20	246	2	12.3	39

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn Pace	80	11	2	6	5
Byron Threats	57	3	1	1	6
Dorian Jones (Tr)	56	3	1	1	2
Taj Ward	55	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daniel Grzesiak (Tr)	46	7	4	3	3
Dontay Corleone	39	7	3	2	1
Eric Phillips	14	6	2	5	1
Jowon Briggs	27	6	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Byron Threats	57	3	1	1	6
Jordan Young (Tr)	34	1	0	0	6
Justin Harris	31	3	0	1	6