UCF at Cincinnati - 2023 Matchup Preview
UCF logo UCF Knights at Cincinnati BearcatsCincinnati logo
Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
UCF -3.5 (59.5) (-185)  Open: -4.5
UCF 28 - Cincinnati: 26  (Big 12)

 
Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
CIN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UCF -6.5   (SP+ UCF -11.5)

Projected Score: UCF: 32 - CIN: 26 (58)
UCF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UCF Travel: 752 miles
Bearcats (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Scott Satterfield (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (25 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
UCF's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 UCF vs Kent State-35.054.0W 56 - 6OY
Sat 9/9 UCF at Boise State-3.058.5W 18 - 16UN
Sat 9/16 UCF vs Villanova-26.554.0W 48 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 UCF at Kansas State+6.053.5L 31 - 44ON
Sat 9/30 UCF vs Baylor-8.056.5L 35 - 36ON
Sat 10/7 UCF at Kansas-2.065.0L 22 - 51ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 UCF at Oklahoma+17.067.5L 29 - 31UY
Sat 10/28 UCF vs West Virginia-6.559.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 11/4 UCF at Cincinnati-3.559.5W 28 - 26UN
Sat 11/11 UCF vs Oklahoma State+2.563.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 11/18 UCF at Texas Tech+2.059.0L 23 - 24UY
Sat 11/25 UCF vs Houston-15.561.5W 27 - 13UN
Fri 12/22 UCF vs Georgia Tech-6.066.5L 17 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Cincinnati's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Cincinnati vs Eastern Kentucky-21.557.5W 66 - 13OY
Sat 9/9 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh+6.544.5W 27 - 21OY
Sat 9/16 Cincinnati vs Miami (OH)-14.544.5L 24 - 31ON
Sat 9/23 Cincinnati vs Oklahoma+13.058.0L 6 - 20UN
Fri 9/29 Cincinnati at BYU+1.047.5L 27 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Cincinnati vs Iowa State-4.042.5L 10 - 30UN
Sat 10/21 Cincinnati vs Baylor-2.551.5L 29 - 32ON
Sat 10/28 Cincinnati at Oklahoma State+7.053.0L 13 - 45ON
Sat 11/4 Cincinnati vs UCF+3.559.5L 26 - 28UY
Sat 11/11 Cincinnati at Houston+3.553.5W 24 - 14UY
Sat 11/18 Cincinnati at West Virginia+4.552.5L 21 - 42ON
Sat 11/25 Cincinnati vs Kansas+7.559.5L 16 - 49ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#16 (.31)45% (41)31.347% (27)3.28 (36)22843% (57)2593.76 (80)#58 (.16)47% (125)25.851% (128)43% (80)3.79 (69)50.11.41.2
CIN#63 (.2)43% (51)24.146% (40)3.36 (18)21741% (73)2093.91 (68)#129 (.32)41% (56)3042% (56)41% (66)4.03 (89)52.61.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9
CIN#59 (.21)45% (43)44% (67)3.03 (69)18545% (32)2373.33 (118)#75 (.18)42% (76)46% (94)39% (43)3.51 (40)44.41.51.2



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1331.325.244.9%3.761.4234872282595.656%43%47%43%15%.31
CIN Defense12302941.2%4.031.1 - - - - - 50%49%42%41%19%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1325.83246.6%3.791.2 - - - - - 56%43%51%43%12%.16
CIN Offense1224.125.343.4%3.911.422426217209556%43%46%41%15%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1328:5223.149%57%6.150.11.41.24.21.7026.6
Cincinnati1231:5822.342%45%5.752.61.41.15.71.5025.8
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1356% (24)47% (27)40.7228.25.628 (25).24 (19)3.28 (36)71% (93)9% (48)1.14 (10)
CIN Defense1250% (68)42% (56) - - - - .26 (125)2.99 (47)75% (82)12% (25)1.38 (133)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1356% (121)51% (128) - - - - .23 (110)3.39 (117)81% (111)7% (127)0.99 (62)
CIN Offense1256% (26)46% (40)43.1217.1514 (106).24 (24)3.36 (18)63% (124)10% (60)1.08 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1343% (111)43% (57)17.628.2258.89.214.724 (41)11 (68).48 (12)1.9 (5)30% (30)37% (15).52 (17)6% (51)2.2 (27)
CIN Defense1249% (66)41% (66) - - - - - - 8 (100).41 (121)1.8 (120)35% (26)34% (118).42 (115)7% (34)2 (42)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1343% (11)43% (80) - - - - - - 12 (37).17 (17)1.4 (4)29% (120)34% (113).23 (33)5% (120)1.7 (1)
CIN Offense1243% (108)41% (73)18.230209711.521 (65)11 (68).2 (93)1.5 (94)30% (35)34% (41).46 (30)5% (45)2.1 (61)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 3.43 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 3.43   Cincinnati: -2.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.5   Cincinnati: -7.2




Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: -2.32 #80
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: 18.94 #45
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: 14.72 #117
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #51
Cincinnati's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Cincinnati's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


UCF Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
UCF 32
Cincinnati 26


Total Points: 58

Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.3
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Cincinnati's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12UCF13Cincinnati19CincinnatiUCF -2Cincinnati58.0Under
202311/04Cincinnati26UCF28UCFUCF -3.5Cincinnati59.5Under
202210/29UCF25Cincinnati21UCFUCF -1.5UCF55.5Under
202110/16Cincinnati56UCF21CincinnatiCincinnati -21.5Cincinnati56.0Over
202011/21UCF33Cincinnati36CincinnatiCincinnati -4.5UCF66.0Over
201910/04Cincinnati27UCF24CincinnatiUCF -3.5Cincinnati64.0Under
201811/17UCF38Cincinnati13UCFUCF -7.5UCF60.0Under
201710/07Cincinnati23UCF51UCFUCF -15UCF52.5Over
201611/12UCF24Cincinnati3UCFUCF -10UCF55.0Under
201510/31Cincinnati52UCF7CincinnatiCincinnati -20.5Cincinnati61.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Cincinnati553 Overs
UCF557 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 48 - 25 - 13 - 1
Road Teams4 - 62 - 81 - 31 - 5

(#46) UCF Info
Power Rating: 3.43 #46
Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60


UCF has lost 5 straight
UCF has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

UCF Highlights
UCF has Really Good Running Game (#68)
UCF offense is explosive (#3)
UCF offense is good on 3rd downs
UCF defense does not give up big plays (#45)

UCF Deficiencies
UCF Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#108)
UCF has a bad defense (#40)
UCF has a bad defensive line (#59)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCINUCF
OverallOver#73#31
OffenseOff#40#19
DefenseDef#100#66
Special TeamsST#99#87
PassingPass#77#23
RushingRush#23#9
Run BlockRBLK#28#46
Pass BlockPBLK#50#12
Route RunningWR Rt#54#27
TacklingTkl#70#76
Run DefenseR Def#101#76
Pass Rush DefPRush#51#73
Coverage DefCov#106#51

Rematch from Week 10
UCF 3.5 (59.5)
UCF won at Cincinnati this year (28-26)

Previous Matchups
Cincinnati beat UCF last year (19-13)
UCF beat Cincinnati in 2023 (28-26)
UCF beat Cincinnati in 2022 (25-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nippert Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UCF | CIN
Depth Chart: UCF | CIN
Rosters: UCF | CIN
(#80) Cincinnati Info
Power Rating: -2.32 #80
Offense Rating: 18.94 #45
Defense Rating: 14.72 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #82
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #51
Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60


Cincinnati has lost 6 straight
Cincinnati has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 6 (2 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Cincinnati Highlights
Cincinnati has Really Good Running Game (#43)
Cincinnati has a top Offensive Line (#11)
Cincinnati Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#36)
Cincinnati Front 7 is disruptive (#41)

Cincinnati Deficiencies
Cincinnati does not Sack the QB (#13)
Cincinnati gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#14)


  
UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Rhys Plumlee16125663%22711588.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)6410263%10659310.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
RJ Harvey2261416166.392
Johnny Richardson8757316.679
John Rhys Plumlee10650554.832
Xavier Townsend15163010.939
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Baker521139721.986
Kobe Hudson44900820.575
Xavier Townsend3332539.837
Alec Holler24244210.238

View UCF's Full Roster
UCF's DC David Gibbs
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Johnson1046301
Walter Yates681002
Lee Hunter5710211
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash5016921
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash5016921
Malachi Lawrence249651
Jason Johnson1046301
Lee Hunter5710211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Thornton220006
Quadric Bullard280003
Brandon Adams191012

Cincinnati's OC Brad Glenn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Emory Jones (Tr)19732261%221918106.9
Brady Lichtenberg193456%252217.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Corey Kiner192104755.568
Emory Jones (Tr)15556043.625
Myles Montgomery6642836.563
Ryan Montgomery5432916.129
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xzavier Henderson (Tr)58782313.555
Braden Smith (Tr)43557413.048
Chamon Metayer23258511.235
Dee Wiggins (Tr)20246212.339

View Cincinnati's Full Roster
Cincinnati's DC Bryan Brown
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshawn Pace8011265
Byron Threats573116
Dorian Jones (Tr)563112
Taj Ward554102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daniel Grzesiak (Tr)467433
Dontay Corleone397321
Eric Phillips146251
Jowon Briggs276220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Byron Threats573116
Jordan Young (Tr)341006
Justin Harris313016