Texas at Iowa State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (8:00 PM EST)
Texas -7.5 (43.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Texas 26 - Iowa State: 16 (Big 12)

Longhorns (12 - 2) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (16 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TEX 2nd straight Road Game
ISU is playing their 4th straight game
TEX is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas -11 (SP+ TEX -16)
Projected Score: TEX: 29 - ISU: 18 (46)
TEX Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TEX Travel: 842 miles

Cyclones (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (47 - 42)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.2 - 5.8 (#57)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TEX Players
ISU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas vs Rice	-35.5	59.0	W 37 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Texas at Alabama	+7.0	53.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Texas vs Wyoming	-31.0	48.5	W 31 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Texas at Baylor	-17.5	49.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Texas vs Kansas	-15.5	61.0	W 40 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas vs Oklahoma	-4.0	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Texas at Houston	-24.0	60.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/28	Texas vs BYU	-20.5	48.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Texas vs Kansas State	-4.0	49.5	W 33 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/11	Texas at TCU	-13.0	56.0	W 29 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/18	Texas at Iowa State	-7.5	43.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Texas vs Texas Tech	-16.5	53.5	W 57 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Texas vs Oklahoma State	-14.0	55.0	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Texas vs Washington	-3.0	61.5	L 31 - 37	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Iowa State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa State vs Northern Iowa	-7.0	40.5	W 30 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Iowa State vs Iowa	+3.5	35.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/16	Iowa State at Ohio	-1.5	42.0	L 7 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/23	Iowa State vs Oklahoma State	-3.5	36.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Iowa State at Oklahoma	+19.5	48.5	L 20 - 50	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa State vs TCU	+6.5	52.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa State at Cincinnati	+4.0	42.5	W 30 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Iowa State at Baylor	-3.0	47.0	W 30 - 18	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Iowa State vs Kansas	-2.5	53.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa State at BYU	-7.5	40.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa State vs Texas	+7.5	43.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/25	Iowa State at Kansas State	+9.5	46.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Iowa State vs Memphis	-10.5	58.0	L 26 - 36	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX	.28	48%	30.5	51%	3.29	188	46%	241	4.52	.13	39%	20.3	37%	40%	3.06	47.3	1.1	1.3
ISU	.12	39%	27.4	37%	2.57	107	42%	262	3.51	.11	40%	20.2	39%	41%	3.26	45.7	1.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ISU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Offense	13	30.5	19.8	48.3%	4.52	1.1	23	429	188	241	5.2	48%	52%	51%	46%	12%	.28
ISU Defense	12	20.2	18.8	39.8%	3.26	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	39%	41%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TEX Defense	13	20.3	25.8	38.5%	3.06	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	37%	40%	17%	.13
ISU Offense	12	27.4	32.3	39.2%	3.51	1.8	20	369	107	262	3.3	41%	58%	37%	42%	15%	.12

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas	13	27:18	22.8	39%	55%	6.1	47.3	1.1	1.3	6.7	2.1	3	30.4
Iowa State	12	32:07	20.4	42%	56%	5.6	45.7	1.8	1.8	5.3	1.5	0	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Offense	13	48%	51%	36.2	188	5.2	29	.22	3.29	75%	8%	0.9
ISU Defense	12	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.86	70%	11%	0.75

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TEX Defense	13	45%	37%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.91	81%	11%	0.97
ISU Offense	12	41%	37%	32.8	107.2	3.3	10	-.02	2.57	60%	10%	0.81

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Offense	13	52%	46%	19.1	31.2	241.4	7.8	12.7	22	7	.34	1.5	28%	32%	.4	4%	2
ISU Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.24	1.4	31%	23%	.17	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TEX Defense	13	55%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.21	1.6	35%	31%	.26	6%	2
ISU Offense	12	58%	42%	26.1	39.9	261.8	6.6	10	19	15	.26	1.5	34%	32%	.31	5%	1.9

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 15.87 #11
Texas's Offense Rating: 19.42 #40
Texas's Defense Rating: 2.04 #15
2023 Talent Rating: 913.24 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
Texas's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Texas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.6 #6
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.5 #6
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.5 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 15.87 Iowa State: 9.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 24.6 Iowa State: 8.6

Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 9.04 #39
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 14.54 #87
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 4.14 #23
2023 Talent Rating: 638.87 #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Iowa State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.20 - 5.80
Iowa State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.6 #34
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #70
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #18

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 29
Iowa State 18

Projected Total Points: 46

Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/18	Iowa State	16	Texas	26	Texas -7.5	Texas	43.5	Under
2022	10/15	Texas	24	Iowa State	21	Texas -15.5	Iowa State	48.5	Under
2021	11/06	Iowa State	30	Texas	7	Iowa State -6	Iowa State	59.5	Under
2020	11/27	Texas	20	Iowa State	23	Iowa State -2	Iowa State	58.0	Under
2019	11/16	Iowa State	23	Texas	21	Iowa State -7	Texas	64.5	Under
2018	11/17	Texas	24	Iowa State	10	Texas -2.5	Texas	49.5	Under
2017	09/28	Iowa State	7	Texas	17	Texas -5	Texas	61.5	Under
2016	10/15	Texas	27	Iowa State	6	Texas -13.5	Texas	69.0	Under
2015	10/31	Iowa State	24	Texas	0	Texas -9.5	Iowa State	50.0	Under
2014	10/18	Texas	48	Iowa State	45	Texas -11	Iowa State	0
2013	10/03	Iowa State	30	Texas	31	Texas -7.5	Iowa State	0
2012	11/10	Texas	33	Iowa State	7
2011	10/01	Iowa State	14	Texas	37
2010	10/23	Texas	21	Iowa State	28
2007	10/13	Iowa State	3	Texas	56
2006	09/23	Texas	37	Iowa State	14
2003	10/18	Iowa State	19	Texas	40
2002	10/26	Texas	21	Iowa State	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa State	5	6	0 Overs
Texas	13	5	9 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 8	5 - 6	3 - 3	2 - 3
Road Teams	8 - 10	6 - 5	3 - 2	3 - 3

(#11) TEX at (#39) ISU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TEX	ISU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#11	#39
SP+SP+	#6	#34
Perf GradeGrade	#10	#54
OffenseOff	#17	#79
DefenseDef	#17	#36
Spec TeamsST	#4	#35
TalentTal	#6	#60
Blue ChipsBC%	#7	#59

Texas Injury Report

Iowa State Injury Report

Texas on Offense


CategoryCat	TEX Off	ISU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#17	#36
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#40	#23
SP+SP+	#6	#18
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas Run Game


CategoryCat	TEX Off	ISU Def
Run GameRun	#25	#24
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#56	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#85

Texas Pass Game


CategoryCat	TEX Off	ISU Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#3	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Iowa State on Offense


CategoryCat	ISU Off	TEX Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#79	#17
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#87	#15
SP+SP+	#70	#10
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Iowa State Run Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#78	#7
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Iowa State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ISU Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#133	#16
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

TEX 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Texas 7.5 (43.5)
Texas won at Iowa State this year (26-16)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Iowa State in 2023 (26-16)

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	272	394	69%	3479	22	6	8.8
Maalik Murphy	40	71	56%	477	3	3	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jonathon Brooks	187	1139	10	6.1	67
CJ Baxter Jr.	138	659	5	4.8	54
Jaydon Blue	65	398	3	6.1	69
Keilan Robinson	12	134	3	11.2	57

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Worthy	75	1014	5	13.5	54
Adonai Mitchell (Tr)	55	845	11	15.4	62
Ja'Tavion Sanders	45	682	2	15.2	50
Jordan Whittington	42	505	1	12.0	41

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Jeff Choate (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylan Ford	96	11	1	6	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	66	8	5	3	2
Jahdae Barron	55	4	0	0	5
Michael Taaffe	45	3	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	66	8	5	3	2
Ethan Burke	39	9	5	2	0
Byron Murphy II	26	8	5	6	0
Barryn Sorrell	34	4	3	11	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jerrin Thompson	37	1	7
Terrance Brooks	20	0	5
Jahdae Barron	55	4	5

ISU's OC Nathan Scheelhaase (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rocco Becht	231	367	63%	3120	23	8	8.5
J.J. Kohl	9	11	82%	23	0	0	2.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Abu Sama III	84	614	6	7.3	77
Eli Sanders	102	477	4	4.7	29
Cartevious Norton	87	343	3	3.9	49
Carson Hansen	22	67	0	3.0	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Higgins	53	983	6	18.5	75
Jaylin Noel	66	820	7	12.4	82
Benjamin Brahmer	28	352	2	12.6	48
Daniel Jackson	16	260	2	16.3	39

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jon Heacock (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Beau Freyler	106	4	1	0	5
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Malik Verdon	47	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
J.R. Singleton	22	4	4	8	0
Zach Lovett	11	4	3	6	0
Caleb Bacon	60	7	3	8	2
Trent Jones II	19	3	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Purchase	56	5	1	0	14
Jeremiah Cooper	45	2	0	1	10
T.J. Tampa	44	3	0	1	7