TCU at Texas Tech - 2023 Matchup Preview
TCU logo TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech Red Raiders(#13)Texas Tech logo
Thursday, November 2nd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -2.5 (59.5) (-142)  Open: -3.0 | 59.5
Texas Tech 35 - TCU: 28  (Big 12)

 
Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (15 - 3)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TCU coming off BYE
TTU coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas Tech -0  (SP+ TCU -4)
Projected Score: TCU: 29 - TTU: 29 (58)
TTU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
TCU Travel: 268 miles
Red Raiders (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (33 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
TCU's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 TCU vs Colorado-20.559.5L 42 - 45ON
Sat 9/9 TCU vs Nicholls-41.559.5W 41 - 6UN
Sat 9/16 TCU at Houston-7.564.0W 36 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 TCU vs SMU-7.063.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 TCU vs West Virginia-14.052.0L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/7 TCU at Iowa State-6.552.5L 14 - 27UN
Sat 10/14 TCU vs BYU-5.052.5W 44 - 11OY
Sat 10/21 TCU at Kansas State+5.560.0L 3 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2 TCU at Texas Tech+2.559.5L 28 - 35ON
Sat 11/11 TCU vs Texas+13.056.0L 26 - 29UY
Sat 11/18 TCU vs Baylor-13.062.0W 42 - 17UY
Fri 11/24 TCU at Oklahoma+12.566.5L 45 - 69ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Texas Tech at Wyoming-13.050.5L 33 - 35ON
Sat 9/9 Texas Tech vs Oregon+4.570.0L 30 - 38UN
Sat 9/16 Texas Tech vs Tarleton State-36.575.5W 41 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Texas Tech at West Virginia-6.053.5L 13 - 20UN
Sat 9/30 Texas Tech vs Houston-8.552.0W 49 - 28OY
Sat 10/7 Texas Tech at Baylor-2.559.5W 39 - 14UY
Sat 10/14 Texas Tech vs Kansas State-1.057.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/21 Texas Tech at BYU-3.049.0L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2 Texas Tech vs TCU-2.559.5W 35 - 28OY
Sat 11/11 Texas Tech at Kansas+3.561.5W 16 - 13UY
Sat 11/18 Texas Tech vs UCF-2.059.0W 24 - 23UN
Fri 11/24 Texas Tech at Texas+16.553.5L 7 - 57ON
Sat 12/16 Texas Tech vs California-3.554.5W 34 - 14UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#25 (.28)47% (16)31.349% (18)3.35 (23)15547% (20)3123.91 (69)#96 (.23)44% (89)27.843% (70)45% (112)3.91 (78)53.61.61
TTU#92 (.15)42% (59)27.447% (26)3.36 (17)16339% (97)2243.91 (70)#51 (.16)41% (54)2642% (63)40% (51)3.46 (42)49.91.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TCU#18 (.3)47% (20)45% (53)2.95 (85)10649% (9)2934.46 (20)#82 (.19)42% (67)46% (102)36% (18)3.82 (72)49.71.61.1
TTU#33 (.25)44% (50)45% (49)3.17 (45)15043% (51)2754.73 (7)#104 (.23)44% (93)44% (76)44% (101)3.97 (83)59.41.51.6



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Offense1231.325.247.4%3.911.6254671553124.642%57%49%47%13%.28
TTU Defense132626.340.9%3.461.3 - - - - - 48%51%42%40%15%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TCU Defense1227.83743.6%3.911 - - - - - 51%49%43%45%13%.23
TTU Offense1327.433.342.5%3.911.8223871632244.547%51%47%39%15%.15

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
TCU1227:212546%50%6.253.61.6151.8229.9
Texas Tech1328:4521.940%65%5.449.91.81.35.22.2330
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Offense1242% (119)49% (18)33.8154.54.619 (69).22 (29)3.35 (23)79% (26)7% (6)0.96 (93)
TTU Defense1348% (42)42% (63) - - - - .15 (73)3.14 (76)61% (11)9% (101)1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TCU Defense1251% (76)43% (70) - - - - .16 (81)3.16 (82)78% (100)8% (117)1 (72)
TTU Offense1347% (90)47% (26)36.5162.84.517 (81).21 (32)3.36 (17)76% (47)7% (12)0.99 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Offense1257% (16)47% (20)26.641.9312.27.511.727 (25)15 (116).4 (27)1.6 (63)31% (54)42% (4).61 (6)7% (94)2 (73)
TTU Defense1351% (88)40% (51) - - - - - - 13 (26).21 (37)1.5 (22)30% (100)28% (42).32 (74)6% (71)2.2 (108)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TCU Defense1249% (59)45% (112) - - - - - - 8 (100).35 (106)1.6 (86)31% (95)35% (122).37 (98)5% (119)2 (34)
TTU Offense1351% (46)39% (97)21.836.2223.86.210.224 (41)18 (128).16 (111)1.5 (116)30% (44)27% (94).24 (97)8% (118)1.9 (120)

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 3.50  #44
TCU's Offense Rating: 20.84  #32
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.76  #97
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 31%  #24
TCU's 2023 Expected Record: 6.40 - 5.60
TCU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5  #40
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #27
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6  #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
TCU: 3.50   Texas Tech: 5.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
TCU: 7.5   Texas Tech: 3.7




Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 5.65  #49
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.06  #81
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 7.91  #46
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #43
Texas Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 6.30 - 6.70
Texas Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7  #52
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #53
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3  #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


TCU Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 27.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

TCU's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 29
Texas Tech 29

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas Tech 31
TCU 22

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 32
TCU 27

Total Points: 59
Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.3
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Texas Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26TCU35Texas Tech34TCU -5.0Texas Tech66.0Over
202311/02Texas Tech35TCU28Texas Tech -2.5Texas Tech59.5Over
202211/05TCU34Texas Tech24TCU -8.5TCU69.0Under
202110/09Texas Tech31TCU52TCU -2.5TCU60.0Over
202011/07TCU34Texas Tech18TCU -9.5TCU60.0Under
201911/16Texas Tech31TCU33TCU -3.5Texas Tech53.0Over
201810/11TCU14Texas Tech17TCU -7.5Texas Tech57.5Under
201711/18Texas Tech3TCU27TCU -6.5TCU53.5Under
201610/29TCU24Texas Tech27TCU -8.5Texas Tech87.0Under
201509/26Texas Tech52TCU55TCU -9.5Texas Tech83.5Over
201410/25TCU82Texas Tech27TCU -20TCU0
201309/12Texas Tech20TCU10TCU -6Texas Tech0
201210/20TCU53Texas Tech56
200609/16TCU12Texas Tech3
200409/18Texas Tech70TCU35
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas Tech675 Overs
TCU955 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 77 - 54 - 33 - 2
Road Teams7 - 85 - 72 - 33 - 4

(#44) TCU at (#49) TTU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTCUTTU
Power RatePwr #44 #49
SP+SP+ #40 #52
Perf GradeGrade #51 #47
OffenseOff #38 #56
DefenseDef #73 #55
Spec TeamsST #61 #31
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #43
TCU on Offense
CategoryCat
TCU OffTTU Def
Perf GradePerf #38 #55
SuccessSuc #16 #54
ExplosiveExp #51 #40
PPAPPA #25 #51
PowerPwr #32 #46
SP+SP+ #27 #61
Pts POPPO #69 #42
HavocHav #19 #91
TCU Run Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffTTU Def
Run GameRun #41 #69
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #63
Run ExplRExp #93 #74
PPAExp #29 #73
Run BlockR Blk #107 -
OL YdsOLY #23 #76
Stuff RateStuff #27 #73
TackleTak -  #12
TCU Pass Game
CategoryCat
TCU OffTTU Def
Pass GamePass #44 #52
Pass SuccessPSuc #20 #51
Pass ExplPExl #63 #22
PPAExp #27 #37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #56 #75
F7 HavocF7 #6 #101
DB HavocDB #94 #71
Texas Tech on Offense
CategoryCatTTU OffTCU Def
Perf GradePerf #56 #73
SuccessSuc #59 #89
ExplosiveExp #107 #89
PPAPPA #92 #96
PowerPwr #81 #97
SP+SP+ #53 #57
Pts POPPO #70 #78
HavocHav #52 #123
Texas Tech Run Game
CategoryCat
TTU OffTCU Def
Run GameRun #20 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #70
Run ExplRExp #69 #72
PPAExp #32 #81
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #17 #82
Stuff RateStuff #43 #80
TackleTak -  #75
Texas Tech Pass Game
CategoryCatTTU OffTCU Def
Pass GamePass #114 #95
Pass SuccessPSuc #97 #112
Pass ExplPExl #116 #86
PPAExp #111 #106
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6 #119
F7 HavocF7 #12 #117
DB HavocDB #118 #119
Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 62° - Wind: 10 mph
Rematch from Week 10
Texas Tech -2.5 (59.5)
Texas Tech won vs TCU this year (35-28)

Previous Matchups
TCU beat Texas Tech last year (35-34)
Texas Tech beat TCU in 2023 (35-28)
TCU beat Texas Tech in 2022 (34-24)

  
TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Hoover18629962%22101597.4
Chandler Morris13220265%15281257.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Emani Bailey223120985.474
Chandler Morris4524935.532
Trey Sanders (Tr)4817663.718
Savion Williams116205.614
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Savion Williams41573414.042
John Paul Richardson46536311.759
Jared Wiley47520811.181
Jaylon Robinson (Tr)32397112.429

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Joe Gillespie (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamoi Hodge807372
Namdi Obiazor756432
Shadrach Banks579120
Nook Bradford530005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Namdi Obiazor756432
Paul Oyewale215310
Jamoi Hodge807372
Caleb Fox254200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Newton290005
Nook Bradford530005
Mark Perry522004

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Behren Morton18229462%17541586.0
Tyler Shough6711160%746746.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tahj Brooks2911545105.346
Cam'Ron Valdez5128015.554
Tyler Shough4814923.158
Jake Strong661010.254
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier White39556114.372
Jerand Bradley36431412.034
Coy Eakin36416211.643
Myles Price4341059.533

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Roberts1057130
C.J. Baskerville (Tr)775025
Dadrion Taylor722127
Jesiah Pierre662110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tony Bradford Jr.426410
Jaylon Hutchings427321
Amier Washington44300
Charles Esters III255321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bralyn Lux (Tr)383008
Dadrion Taylor722127
Malik Dunlap361007