BYU at TCU - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
TCU -5 (52.5) (0) Open: 0.0
TCU 44 - BYU: 11 (Big 12)

Cougars (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kalani Sitake (59 - 34)
Avg Score : 31 - 19 (28 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 19.9 MPH
BYU coming off BYE
TCU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: TCU -12 (SP+ TCU -11)
Projected Score: BYU: 21 - TCU: 33 (53)
TCU Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
BYU Travel: 948 miles, 1 hrs behind

Horned Frogs (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (15 - 3)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#71)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BYU Players
TCU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

BYU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	BYU vs Sam Houston	-19.0	46.5	W 14 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/9	BYU vs Southern Utah	-30.5	46.5	W 41 - 16	O	N
Sat 9/16	BYU at Arkansas	+9.0	48.0	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/23	BYU at Kansas	+9.0	55.5	L 27 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	BYU vs Cincinnati	-1.0	47.5	W 35 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	BYU at TCU	+5.0	52.5	L 11 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/21	BYU vs Texas Tech	+3.0	49.0	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/28	BYU at Texas	+20.5	48.5	L 6 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/4	BYU at West Virginia	+13.0	48.5	L 7 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/11	BYU vs Iowa State	+7.5	40.5	L 13 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	BYU vs Oklahoma	+24.5	58.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/25	BYU at Oklahoma State	+15.5	55.5	L 34 - 40	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for BYU's Schedule

TCU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	TCU vs Colorado	-20.5	59.5	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	TCU vs Nicholls	-41.5	59.5	W 41 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	TCU at Houston	-7.5	64.0	W 36 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	TCU vs SMU	-7.0	63.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	TCU vs West Virginia	-14.0	52.0	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/7	TCU at Iowa State	-6.5	52.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/14	TCU vs BYU	-5.0	52.5	W 44 - 11	O	Y
Sat 10/21	TCU at Kansas State	+5.5	60.0	L 3 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2	TCU at Texas Tech	+2.5	59.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	TCU vs Texas	+13.0	56.0	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/18	TCU vs Baylor	-13.0	62.0	W 42 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	TCU at Oklahoma	+12.5	66.5	L 45 - 69	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BYU	.3	46%	31.4	46%	3.33	176	46%	250	4.33	.25	48%	19.1	50%	47%	4.65	53.2	0.8	1
TCU	.3	44%	30.7	47%	3.15	193	40%	262	4.28	.17	41%	25.3	45%	38%	4.36	49.6	1.1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BYU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TCU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BYU Offense	13	31.4	27.5	45.6%	4.33	0.8	22	426	176	250	5.2	52%	47%	46%	46%	13%	.3
TCU Defense	15	25.3	24.2	41.3%	4.36	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	38%	16%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BYU Defense	13	19.1	21.8	48.3%	4.65	1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	50%	47%	13%	.25
TCU Offense	15	30.7	36	43.5%	4.28	1.1	21	455	193	262	5.1	52%	48%	47%	40%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
BYU	13	29:09	21.9	45%	33%	5.7	53.2	0.8	1	3.7	1.2	3	27.7
TCU	15	30:25	21	40%	52%	4.8	49.6	1.1	1.5	4.7	2	6	30.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BYU Offense	13	52%	46%	33.7	176.4	5.2	19	.23	3.33	69%	8%	1.11
TCU Defense	15	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.18	2.99	72%	8%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BYU Defense	13	53%	50%	-	-	-	-	.21	3.54	67%	7%	0.89
TCU Offense	15	52%	47%	37.7	193.3	5.1	37	.22	3.15	72%	8%	1.07

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BYU Offense	13	47%	46%	19.8	30.2	249.7	8.3	12.6	32	7	.4	1.7	30%	33%	.42	5%	2
TCU Defense	15	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.2	1.8	32%	27%	.3	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BYU Defense	13	47%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.31	1.5	26%	39%	.57	6%	2.1
TCU Offense	15	48%	40%	19.5	30.3	261.7	8.7	13.5	33	8	.38	1.9	30%	32%	.45	5%	2.4

BYU's Power Ratings
BYU's Power Rating: -4.63 #89
BYU's Offense Rating: 10.78 #119
BYU's Defense Rating: 10.17 #74
2023 Talent Rating: 576.25 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #61
BYU's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
BYU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.7 #77
BYU's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #74
BYU's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #95

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 577.46

Power Ratings Matchup
BYU: -4.63 TCU: 8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
BYU: -3.7 TCU: 7.5

TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 8 #44
TCU's Offense Rating: 20.84 #32
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.76 #97
2023 Talent Rating: 768.25 #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 31 #24
TCU's 2023 Expected Record: 6.40 - 5.60
TCU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #40
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #27
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #57

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 577.46

BYU Scoring
Offense: 31.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 19.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

BYU's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
TCU 33
BYU 21

Projected Total Points: 53

TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	BYU	44	TCU	13	BYU -3	BYU	51.5	Over
2023	10/14	TCU	44	BYU	11	TCU -5	TCU	52.5	Over
2011	10/28	TCU	38	BYU	28
2010	10/16	TCU	31	BYU	3
2009	10/24	BYU	7	TCU	38
2008	10/16	TCU	32	BYU	7
2007	11/08	BYU	27	TCU	22
2006	09/28	TCU	17	BYU	31
2005	09/24	BYU	50	TCU	51

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
TCU	6	1	2 Overs
BYU	3	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 6	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#89) BYU at (#44) TCU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BYU	TCU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#89	#44
SP+SP+	#77	#40
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#51
OffenseOff	#106	#38
DefenseDef	#125	#73
Spec TeamsST	#74	#61
TalentTal	#73	#19
Blue ChipsBC%	#61	#24

BYU Injury Report

TCU Injury Report

BYU on Offense


CategoryCat	BYU Off	TCU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#106	#73
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#119	#97
SP+SP+	#74	#57
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

BYU Run Game


CategoryCat	BYU Off	TCU Def
Run GameRun	#126	#42
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#90	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#75

BYU Pass Game


CategoryCat	BYU Off	TCU Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#19	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

TCU on Offense


CategoryCat	TCU Off	BYU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#38	#125
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#32	#74
SP+SP+	#27	#95
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

TCU Run Game


CategoryCat	TCU Off	BYU Def
Run GameRun	#41	#117
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#124

TCU Pass Game


CategoryCat	TCU Off	BYU Def
Pass GamePass	#44	#119
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#56	#100
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

BYU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 70° - Wind: 20 mph

Rematch from Week 7
TCU -5.0 (52.5)
TCU won vs BYU this year (44-11)

Previous Matchups
BYU beat TCU last year (44-13)
TCU beat BYU in 2023 (44-11)

BYU's OC Aaron Roderick (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kedon Slovis (Tr)	153	266	58%	1716	12	6	6.5
Jake Retzlaff	63	125	50%	648	3	3	5.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
LJ Martin	109	518	4	4.8	55
Aidan Robbins (Tr)	101	485	1	4.8	36
Jake Retzlaff	51	116	3	2.3	19
Miles Davis	16	78	0	4.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chase Roberts	42	573	5	13.6	59
Isaac Rex	34	422	3	12.4	65
Darius Lassiter (Tr)	29	365	4	12.6	47
Kody Epps	21	259	0	12.3	30

View BYU's Full Roster

BYU's DC Jay Hill (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Max Tooley	92	5	1	0	2
AJ Vongphachanh (Tr)	85	6	0	5	1
Ethan Slade	60	2	0	0	3
Crew Wakley (Tr)	59	4	0	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Batty	54	8	6	6	0
Max Tooley	92	5	1	0	2
Isaiah Bagnah (Tr)	27	2	1	1	0
Eddie Heckard (Tr)	47	5	1	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jakob Robinson	59	1	0	0	7
Crew Wakley (Tr)	59	4	0	1	6
Eddie Heckard (Tr)	47	5	1	0	6

TCU's OC Kendal Briles (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Hoover	186	299	62%	2210	15	9	7.4
Chandler Morris	132	202	65%	1528	12	5	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Emani Bailey	223	1209	8	5.4	74
Chandler Morris	45	249	3	5.5	32
Trey Sanders (Tr)	48	176	6	3.7	18
Savion Williams	11	62	0	5.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Savion Williams	41	573	4	14.0	42
John Paul Richardson	46	536	3	11.7	59
Jared Wiley	47	520	8	11.1	81
Jaylon Robinson (Tr)	32	397	1	12.4	29

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Joe Gillespie (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamoi Hodge	80	7	3	7	2
Namdi Obiazor	75	6	4	3	2
Shadrach Banks	57	9	1	2	0
Nook Bradford	53	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Namdi Obiazor	75	6	4	3	2
Paul Oyewale	21	5	3	1	0
Jamoi Hodge	80	7	3	7	2
Caleb Fox	25	4	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Josh Newton	29	0	5
Nook Bradford	53	0	5
Mark Perry	52	2	4