UCF at Texas Tech - 2023 Matchup Preview

UCF Knights at Texas Tech Red Raiders(#6)

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (5:00 PM EST)
Texas Tech -2.0 (59.0) (-135) Open: -3.0 | 59.5
Texas Tech 24 - UCF: 23 (Big 12)

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (25 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 15 MPH
UCF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas Tech -1.5 (SP+ UCF -1)
Projected Score: UCF: 28 - TTU: 30 (58)
TTU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
UCF Travel: 1269 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Red Raiders (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Joey McGuire (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 26 (33 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.3 - 6.7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
TTU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Texas Tech's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Texas Tech at Wyoming	-13.0	50.5	L 33 - 35	O	N
Sat 9/9	Texas Tech vs Oregon	+4.5	70.0	L 30 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/16	Texas Tech vs Tarleton State	-36.5	75.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Texas Tech at West Virginia	-6.0	53.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/30	Texas Tech vs Houston	-8.5	52.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Texas Tech at Baylor	-2.5	59.5	W 39 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Texas Tech vs Kansas State	-1.0	57.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/21	Texas Tech at BYU	-3.0	49.0	L 14 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/2	Texas Tech vs TCU	-2.5	59.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Texas Tech at Kansas	+3.5	61.5	W 16 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Texas Tech vs UCF	-2.0	59.0	W 24 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/24	Texas Tech at Texas	+16.5	53.5	L 7 - 57	O	N
Sat 12/16	Texas Tech vs California	-3.5	54.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#16 (.31)	45% (41)	31.3	47% (27)	3.28 (36)	228	43% (57)	259	3.76 (80)	#58 (.16)	47% (125)	25.8	51% (128)	43% (80)	3.79 (69)	50.1	1.4	1.2
TTU	#92 (.15)	42% (59)	27.4	47% (26)	3.36 (17)	163	39% (97)	224	3.91 (70)	#51 (.16)	41% (54)	26	42% (63)	40% (51)	3.46 (42)	49.9	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#58 (.21)	46% (28)		52% (8)	3.62 (2)	248	38% (103)	200	3.75 (86)	#63 (.16)	40% (45)		37% (12)	42% (84)	4.37 (118)	54.4	1.6	0.9
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)		45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)		44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	13	31.3	25.2	44.9%	3.76	1.4	23	487	228	259	5.6	56%	43%	47%	43%	15%	.31
TTU Defense	13	26	26.3	40.9%	3.46	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	40%	15%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	13	25.8	32	46.6%	3.79	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	51%	43%	12%	.16
TTU Offense	13	27.4	33.3	42.5%	3.91	1.8	22	387	163	224	4.5	47%	51%	47%	39%	15%	.15

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	13	28:52	23.1	49%	57%	6.1	50.1	1.4	1.2	4.2	1.7	0	26.6
Texas Tech	13	28:45	21.9	40%	65%	5.4	49.9	1.8	1.3	5.2	2.2	3	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	13	56% (24)	47% (27)	40.7	228.2	5.6	28 (25)	.24 (19)	3.28 (36)	71% (93)	9% (48)	1.14 (10)
TTU Defense	13	48% (42)	42% (63)	-	-	-	-	.15 (73)	3.14 (76)	61% (11)	9% (101)	1 (74)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	13	56% (121)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.23 (110)	3.39 (117)	81% (111)	7% (127)	0.99 (62)
TTU Offense	13	47% (90)	47% (26)	36.5	162.8	4.5	17 (81)	.21 (32)	3.36 (17)	76% (47)	7% (12)	0.99 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	13	43% (111)	43% (57)	17.6	28.2	258.8	9.2	14.7	24 (41)	11 (68)	.48 (12)	1.9 (5)	30% (30)	37% (15)	.52 (17)	6% (51)	2.2 (27)
TTU Defense	13	51% (88)	40% (51)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.21 (37)	1.5 (22)	30% (100)	28% (42)	.32 (74)	6% (71)	2.2 (108)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	13	43% (11)	43% (80)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.17 (17)	1.4 (4)	29% (120)	34% (113)	.23 (33)	5% (120)	1.7 (1)
TTU Offense	13	51% (46)	39% (97)	21.8	36.2	223.8	6.2	10.2	24 (41)	18 (128)	.16 (111)	1.5 (116)	30% (44)	27% (94)	.24 (97)	8% (118)	1.9 (120)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 3.43 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 3.43 Texas Tech: 5.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.5 Texas Tech: 3.7

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 5.65 #49
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 15.06 #81
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 7.91 #46
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Texas Tech's 2023 Expected Record: 6.30 - 6.70
Texas Tech's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.7 #52
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UCF Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas Tech 30
UCF 28

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
UCF 30
Texas Tech 26

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 30
UCF 27

Total Points: 57

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.3
Defense: 26 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Texas Tech's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Texas Tech	48	UCF	9	Texas Tech -24.5	Texas Tech	48.5	Over
2023	11/18	Texas Tech	24	UCF	23	Texas Tech -2.0	UCF	59.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas Tech	2	1	1 Overs
UCF	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#46) UCF at (#49) TTU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	TTU
Power RatePwr	#46	#49
SP+SP+	#48	#52
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#47
OffenseOff	#21	#56
DefenseDef	#87	#55
Spec TeamsST	#109	#31
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#43

UCF Injury Report

Texas Tech Injury Report

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	TTU Def
Perf GradePerf	#21	#55
SuccessSuc	#41	#54
ExplosiveExp	#3	#40
PPAPPA	#16	#51
PowerPwr	#23	#46
SP+SP+	#35	#61
Pts POPPO	#80	#42
HavocHav	#47	#91

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	TTU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#69
Run SuccessRSuc	#27	#63
Run ExplRExp	#10	#74
PPAExp	#19	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#76
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#73
TackleTak	-	#12

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	TTU Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#57	#51
Pass ExplPExl	#5	#22
PPAExp	#12	#37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#14	#75
F7 HavocF7	#48	#101
DB HavocDB	#51	#71

Texas Tech on Offense


CategoryCat	TTU Off	UCF Def
Perf GradePerf	#56	#87
SuccessSuc	#59	#125
ExplosiveExp	#107	#7
PPAPPA	#92	#58
PowerPwr	#81	#89
SP+SP+	#53	#54
Pts POPPO	#70	#69
HavocHav	#52	#128

Texas Tech Run Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#20	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	#26	#128
Run ExplRExp	#69	#62
PPAExp	#32	#110
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#17	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#43	#78
TackleTak	-	#88

Texas Tech Pass Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#114	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#97	#80
Pass ExplPExl	#116	#4
PPAExp	#111	#17
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#6	#94
F7 HavocF7	#12	#127
DB HavocDB	#118	#120

Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 59° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Texas Tech -2.0 (59.0)
Texas Tech won vs UCF this year (24-23)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat UCF in 2023 (24-23)

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Rhys Plumlee	161	256	63%	2271	15	8	8.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)	64	102	63%	1065	9	3	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	226	1416	16	6.3	92
Johnny Richardson	87	573	1	6.6	79
John Rhys Plumlee	106	505	5	4.8	32
Xavier Townsend	15	163	0	10.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Baker	52	1139	7	21.9	86
Kobe Hudson	44	900	8	20.5	75
Xavier Townsend	33	325	3	9.8	37
Alec Holler	24	244	2	10.2	38

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Walter Yates	68	1	0	0	2
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1
Malachi Lawrence	24	9	6	5	1
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Corey Thornton	22	0	0	6
Quadric Bullard	28	0	0	3
Brandon Adams	19	1	1	2

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Behren Morton	182	294	62%	1754	15	8	6.0
Tyler Shough	67	111	60%	746	7	4	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Brooks	291	1545	10	5.3	46
Cam'Ron Valdez	51	280	1	5.5	54
Tyler Shough	48	149	2	3.1	58
Jake Strong	6	61	0	10.2	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier White	39	556	1	14.3	72
Jerand Bradley	36	431	4	12.0	34
Coy Eakin	36	416	2	11.6	43
Myles Price	43	410	5	9.5	33

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ben Roberts	105	7	1	3	0
C.J. Baskerville (Tr)	77	5	0	2	5
Dadrion Taylor	72	2	1	2	7
Jesiah Pierre	66	2	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tony Bradford Jr.	42	6	4	1	0
Jaylon Hutchings	42	7	3	2	1
Amier Washington	4	4	3	0	0
Charles Esters III	25	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bralyn Lux (Tr)	38	3	0	0	8
Dadrion Taylor	72	2	1	2	7
Malik Dunlap	36	1	0	0	7