UCF at Oklahoma - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Oklahoma -17 (67.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Oklahoma 31 - UCF: 29 (Big 12)

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCF coming off BYE
OKLA coming off BYE
Our Line: Oklahoma -16 (SP+ OKLA -12)
Projected Score: UCF: 20 - OKLA: 36 (56)
OKLA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
UCF Travel: 1055 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Sooners (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brent Venables (9 - 7)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (26 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.9 - 2.1 (#5)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
OKLA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Oklahoma's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oklahoma vs Arkansas State	-36.0	57.5	W 73 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oklahoma vs SMU	-16.5	68.5	W 28 - 11	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oklahoma at Tulsa	-28.0	58.5	W 66 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Oklahoma at Cincinnati	-13.0	58.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Oklahoma vs Iowa State	-19.5	48.5	W 50 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Oklahoma vs Texas	+4.0	62.0	W 34 - 30	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Oklahoma vs UCF	-17.0	67.5	W 31 - 29	U	N
Sat 10/28	Oklahoma at Kansas	-7.0	66.5	L 33 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	Oklahoma at Oklahoma State	-6.0	61.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oklahoma vs West Virginia	-13.5	59.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oklahoma at BYU	-24.5	58.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oklahoma vs TCU	-12.5	66.5	W 69 - 45	O	Y
Thu 12/28	Oklahoma vs Arizona	+2.5	59.5	L 24 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	.24	47%	24.3	51%	3.38	228	44%	241	4.08	.21	41%	23.6	40%	43%	3.53	46.4	1.5	1.5
OKLA	.27	47%	26.2	50%	3.38	220	45%	255	3.95	.23	44%	15.5	44%	44%	4.06	50.2	1.2	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
OKLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	14	24.3	12.8	47.4%	4.08	1.5	24	469	228	241	5.2	53%	46%	51%	44%	14%	.24
OKLA Defense	13	15.5	15	43.5%	4.06	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	44%	44%	18%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	14	23.6	34.6	41.2%	3.53	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	43%	16%	.21
OKLA Offense	13	26.2	26.4	47.1%	3.95	1.2	24	475	220	255	4.9	53%	46%	50%	45%	14%	.27

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	14	30:51	24.2	46%	63%	4.9	46.4	1.5	1.5	5	1.5	2	28
Oklahoma	13	26:19	23.8	41%	41%	5.7	50.2	1.2	1.9	7.8	2.2	0	27.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	14	53%	51%	43.9	228	5.2	35	.29	3.38	73%	10%	1.05
OKLA Defense	13	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.12	68%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	14	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.16	2.95	66%	10%	1.12
OKLA Offense	13	53%	50%	44.6	219.9	4.9	28	.26	3.38	76%	9%	1.04

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	14	46%	44%	20.8	32.2	241.2	7.5	11.6	22	9	.21	1.4	27%	32%	.27	4%	1.9
OKLA Defense	13	52%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	17	.3	1.6	32%	32%	.35	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	14	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.3	1.5	33%	30%	.29	6%	1.9
OKLA Offense	13	46%	45%	19.3	31.3	254.6	8.1	13.2	27	8	.31	1.6	30%	31%	.31	5%	2

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 3.43 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 653.97 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 3.43 Oklahoma: 20.015

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.5 Oklahoma: 16.4

Oklahoma's Power Ratings
Oklahoma's Power Rating: 20.015 #7
Oklahoma's Offense Rating: 26.78 #8
Oklahoma's Defense Rating: 3.74 #19
2023 Talent Rating: 884.97 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 71 #5
Oklahoma's 2023 Expected Record: 10.90 - 2.10
Oklahoma's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.4 #13
Oklahoma's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #7
Oklahoma's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oklahoma 36
UCF 20

Projected Total Points: 56

Oklahoma Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

Oklahoma's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/21	Oklahoma	31	UCF	29	Oklahoma -17	UCF	67.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oklahoma	1	0	0 Overs
UCF	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#46) UCF at (#7) OKLA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	OKLA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#46	#7
SP+SP+	#48	#13
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#25
OffenseOff	#21	#20
DefenseDef	#87	#40
Spec TeamsST	#109	#21
TalentTal	#53	#9
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#5

UCF Injury Report

Oklahoma Injury Report

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKLA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#40
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#23	#19
SP+SP+	#35	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKLA Def
Run GameRun	#10	#30
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#67

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKLA Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#70
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#14	#58
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Oklahoma on Offense


CategoryCat	OKLA Off	UCF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#20	#87
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#8	#89
SP+SP+	#7	#54
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oklahoma Run Game


CategoryCat	OKLA Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#44	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#88

Oklahoma Pass Game


CategoryCat	OKLA Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#7	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#94
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
OKLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'23 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Oklahoma -17.0 (67.5)
Oklahoma won vs UCF this year (31-29)

Previous Matchups
Oklahoma beat UCF in 2023 (31-29)

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Rhys Plumlee	161	256	63%	2271	15	8	8.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)	64	102	63%	1065	9	3	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	226	1416	16	6.3	92
Johnny Richardson	87	573	1	6.6	79
John Rhys Plumlee	106	505	5	4.8	32
Xavier Townsend	15	163	0	10.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Baker	52	1139	7	21.9	86
Kobe Hudson	44	900	8	20.5	75
Xavier Townsend	33	325	3	9.8	37
Alec Holler	24	244	2	10.2	38

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Walter Yates	68	1	0	0	2
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1
Malachi Lawrence	24	9	6	5	1
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Corey Thornton	22	0	0	6
Quadric Bullard	28	0	0	3
Brandon Adams	19	1	1	2

OKLA's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dillon Gabriel	266	384	69%	3660	30	6	9.5
Jackson Arnold	44	69	64%	563	4	3	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Sawchuk	120	744	9	6.2	64
Tawee Walker	102	513	7	5.0	30
Dillon Gabriel	93	373	12	4.0	44
Marcus Major	78	308	1	3.9	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Drake Stoops	84	962	10	11.5	60
Nic Anderson	38	798	10	21.0	63
Jalil Farooq	45	694	2	15.4	49
Andrel Anthony Jr.	27	429	1	15.9	55

View Oklahoma's Full Roster

OKLA's DC Todd Bates (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Danny Stutsman	87	14	2	1	3
Billy Bowman	60	3	0	0	3
Jaren Kanak	58	6	2	4	0
Kip Lewis	57	4	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Downs	26	7	5	6	0
Marcus Stripling	6	3	3	1	0
Kendel Dolby	49	5	2	4	4
Danny Stutsman	87	14	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Woodi Washington	42	3	0	1	7
Kendel Dolby	49	5	2	4	4
Peyton Bowen	32	1	1	1	4