Oklahoma State at UCF Game Matchup

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Oklahoma State -2.5 (63.5) (0) Open: 0.0
UCF 45 - Oklahoma State: 3 (Big 12)

Cowboys (10 - 4) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (158 - 76)
Avg Score : 27 - 36 (24 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 8.4 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Predicted
UCF is playing their 4th straight game
OKST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: UCF -4 (SP+ OKST -1.5)
Projected Score: OKST: 29 - UCF: 33 (60)
OKST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
OKST Travel: 1060 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OKST Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas	-25.5	59.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/9	Oklahoma State at Arizona State	-2.5	53.5	W 27 - 15	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oklahoma State vs South Alabama	-7.0	49.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oklahoma State at Iowa State	+3.5	36.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6	Oklahoma State vs Kansas State	+11.5	53.5	W 29 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Oklahoma State vs Kansas	+3.0	54.0	W 39 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oklahoma State at West Virginia	+3.0	48.0	W 48 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	53.0	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma	+6.0	61.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Oklahoma State at UCF	-2.5	63.5	L 3 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oklahoma State at Houston	-6.5	56.5	W 43 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Oklahoma State vs BYU	-15.5	55.5	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/2	Oklahoma State vs Texas	+14.0	55.0	L 21 - 49	O	N
Wed 12/27	Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	56.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	.14	40%	27.2	40%	2.86	126	40%	280	4.08	.2	40%	35.6	41%	39%	3.77	33.5	1.8	1.5
UCF	.24	47%	30.4	51%	3.38	228	44%	241	4.08	.21	41%	26.9	40%	43%	3.53	46.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Offense	13	27.2	23.5	39.6%	4.08	1.8	22	405	126	280	3.4	45%	54%	40%	40%	18%	.14
UCF Defense	14	26.9	23	41.2%	3.53	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	43%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Defense	13	35.6	36.3	39.5%	3.77	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	41%	39%	16%	.2
UCF Offense	14	30.4	32.9	47.4%	4.08	1.5	24	469	228	241	5.2	53%	46%	51%	44%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma State	13	27:46	22.2	35%	31%	3.5	33.5	1.8	1.5	6.6	1.9	2	28.8
UCF	14	30:51	24.2	46%	63%	4.9	46.4	1.5	1.5	5	1.5	2	28

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Offense	13	45%	40%	36.6	125.6	3.4	20	.07	2.86	73%	9%	0.89
UCF Defense	14	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.16	2.95	66%	10%	1.12

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Defense	13	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.92	57%	10%	1.12
UCF Offense	14	53%	51%	43.9	228	5.2	35	.29	3.38	73%	10%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Offense	13	54%	40%	22.5	40.3	279.5	6.9	12.5	24	18	.21	1.6	33%	31%	.32	9%	2.2
UCF Defense	14	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.3	1.5	33%	30%	.29	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Defense	13	52%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.29	1.7	35%	32%	.48	6%	2.3
UCF Offense	14	46%	44%	20.8	32.2	241.2	7.5	11.6	22	9	.21	1.4	27%	32%	.27	4%	1.9

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -0.67 #67
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 14.94 #82
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 10.18 #75
2023 Talent Rating: 686.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Oklahoma State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.60 - 8.40
Oklahoma State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #31
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -0.67 UCF: 6.465

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: 5.9 UCF: 4.5

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 6.465 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 574.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 676
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 27.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.5
Defense: 35.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.3

Oklahoma State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 33
Oklahoma State 29

Projected Total Points: 60

UCF Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 26.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/11	UCF	45	Oklahoma State	3	UCF	Oklahoma State -2.5	UCF	63.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	1	1	0 Overs
Oklahoma State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#67) Oklahoma State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.67 #67
Offense Rating: 14.94 #82
Defense Rating: 10.18 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #31
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75
Talent Rating: 686.00 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Expected Record: 5.60 - 8.40

Team Profile

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Oklahoma State Ratings Matchup UCF

Power #67

#46

Off #82

#23

Def #75

#89

Talent #53

#77

SP+ #42

#48

SP+ Off #31

#35

SP+ Def #75

#54

Rematch from Week 11
Oklahoma State 2.5 (63.5)
UCF won vs Oklahoma State this year (45-3)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Oklahoma State in 2023 (45-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 79° - Wind: 9 mph
Rain: 0.031

Team Information
Injuries: OKST | UCF
Depth Chart: OKST | UCF
Rosters: OKST | UCF

(#46) UCF Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.465 #46
Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54
Talent Rating: 574.00 #77
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60

Team Profile

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Oklahoma State's OC Kasey Dunn

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alan Bowman (Tr)	204	340	60%	2442	17	12	7.2
Ollie Gordon	1	1	100%	27	0	0	27.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Nixon	132	874	12	6.6	92
Ollie Gordon	189	858	12	4.5	68
Brennan Presley	8	59	1	7.4	22
Jake Schultz	1	0	0	0.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Presley	89	764	7	8.6	36
Rashod Owens	32	515	4	16.1	58
Ollie Gordon	30	201	2	6.7	22
Jaden Bray	2	88	0	44.0	44

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

Oklahoma State's DC Jim Bob Clements

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Rucker	84	1	0	0	1
Dylahn McKinney	59	3	0	0	8
Nickolas Martin	47	8	1	5	2
Lardarius Webb Jr.	40	2	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Ross	12	3	3	1	1
Kody Walterscheid	22	2	2	2	1
Nickolas Martin	47	8	1	5	2
Collin Oliver	4	2	1	7	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Korie Black	36	0	9
Dylahn McKinney	59	3	8
Lardarius Webb Jr.	40	2	3

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Timmy McClain (Tr)	14	21	67%	163	3	0	7.8
RJ Harvey	1	1	100%	18	0	0	18.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	232	1577	22	6.8	80
Jordan Mcdonald	53	361	3	6.8	41
Johnny Richardson	25	119	0	4.8	12
Timmy McClain (Tr)	19	39	1	2.1	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Hudson	47	770	4	16.4	53
RJ Harvey	20	267	3	13.4	75
Tyler Griffin	8	193	1	24.1	40
Trent Whittemore (Tr)	7	132	0	18.9	54

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Williams (Tr)	75	3	0	0	3
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Nikai Martinez	51	3	0	1	2
K.D. McDaniel	42	3	2	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ricky Barber	34	5	3	8	0
K.D. McDaniel	42	3	2	3	1
Quadric Bullard	61	3	1	1	2
Jarvis Ware	29	1	1	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Thornton	38	0	0	1	6
Jarvis Ware	29	1	1	0	4
Fred Davis II (Tr)	17	3	0	0	4