Oklahoma State at UCF - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Oklahoma State -2.5 (63.5) (0) Open: 0.0
UCF 45 - Oklahoma State: 3 (Big 12)

Cowboys (10 - 4) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (158 - 76)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (10 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 8.4 (#86)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCF is playing their 4th straight game
OKST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: UCF -4 (SP+ OKST -1.5)
Projected Score: OKST: 26 - UCF: 30 (56)
OKST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
OKST Travel: 1060 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
OKST Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oklahoma State vs Central Arkansas	-25.5	59.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/9	Oklahoma State at Arizona State	-2.5	53.5	W 27 - 15	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oklahoma State vs South Alabama	-7.0	49.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oklahoma State at Iowa State	+3.5	36.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/6	Oklahoma State vs Kansas State	+11.5	53.5	W 29 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Oklahoma State vs Kansas	+3.0	54.0	W 39 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oklahoma State at West Virginia	+3.0	48.0	W 48 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati	-7.0	53.0	W 45 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma	+6.0	61.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Oklahoma State at UCF	-2.5	63.5	L 3 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oklahoma State at Houston	-6.5	56.5	W 43 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Oklahoma State vs BYU	-15.5	55.5	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 12/2	Oklahoma State vs Texas	+14.0	55.0	L 21 - 49	O	N
Wed 12/27	Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	56.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	.14	40%	14.2	40%	2.86	126	40%	280	4.08	.2	40%	33.3	41%	39%	3.77	33.5	1.8	1.5
UCF	.24	47%	24.3	51%	3.38	228	44%	241	4.08	.21	41%	23.6	40%	43%	3.53	46.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Offense	13	14.2	10.2	39.6%	4.08	1.8	22	405	126	280	3.4	45%	54%	40%	40%	18%	.14
UCF Defense	14	23.6	15.7	41.2%	3.53	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	43%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Defense	13	33.3	41.4	39.5%	3.77	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	41%	39%	16%	.2
UCF Offense	14	24.3	32.6	47.4%	4.08	1.5	24	469	228	241	5.2	53%	46%	51%	44%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma State	13	27:46	22.2	35%	31%	3.5	33.5	1.8	1.5	6.6	1.9	2	28.8
UCF	14	30:51	24.2	46%	63%	4.9	46.4	1.5	1.5	5	1.5	2	28

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Offense	13	45%	40%	36.6	125.6	3.4	20	.07	2.86	73%	9%	0.89
UCF Defense	14	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.16	2.95	66%	10%	1.12

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Defense	13	47%	41%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.92	57%	10%	1.12
UCF Offense	14	53%	51%	43.9	228	5.2	35	.29	3.38	73%	10%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Offense	13	54%	40%	22.5	40.3	279.5	6.9	12.5	24	18	.21	1.6	33%	31%	.32	9%	2.2
UCF Defense	14	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.3	1.5	33%	30%	.29	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Defense	13	52%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.29	1.7	35%	32%	.48	6%	2.3
UCF Offense	14	46%	44%	20.8	32.2	241.2	7.5	11.6	22	9	.21	1.4	27%	32%	.27	4%	1.9

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -0.67 #67
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 14.94 #82
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 10.18 #75
2023 Talent Rating: 649.79 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Oklahoma State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.60 - 8.40
Oklahoma State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #31
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #75

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -0.67 UCF: 6.465

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: 5.9 UCF: 4.5

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 6.465 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 653.97 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.2
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.4

Oklahoma State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 30
Oklahoma State 26

Projected Total Points: 56

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	UCF	17	Oklahoma State	14	UCF -13.5	Oklahoma State	47.5	Under
2023	11/11	UCF	45	Oklahoma State	3	Oklahoma State -2.5	UCF	63.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	2	1	0 Overs
Oklahoma State	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#67) OKST at (#46) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKST	UCF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#67	#46
SP+SP+	#42	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#38
OffenseOff	#42	#21
DefenseDef	#97	#87
Spec TeamsST	#16	#109
TalentTal	#56	#53
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#53

Oklahoma State Injury Report

UCF Injury Report

Oklahoma State on Offense


CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#42	#87
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#82	#89
SP+SP+	#31	#54
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oklahoma State Run Game


CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#33	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#104	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#88

Oklahoma State Pass Game


CategoryCat	OKST Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#52	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#94
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#97
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#23	#75
SP+SP+	#35	#75
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
Run GameRun	#10	#86
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#79

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	OKST Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#14	#61
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Oklahoma State 2.5 (63.5)
UCF won vs Oklahoma State this year (45-3)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Oklahoma State last year (17-14)
UCF beat Oklahoma State in 2023 (45-3)

OKST's OC Kasey Dunn (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alan Bowman (Tr)	304	501	61%	3460	15	14	6.9
Gunnar Gundy	21	34	62%	202	1	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ollie Gordon	285	1731	21	6.1	75
Jaden Nixon	50	197	1	3.9	34
Elijah Collins (Tr)	30	142	2	4.7	26
Gunnar Gundy	15	49	1	3.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Presley	100	988	6	9.9	29
Rashod Owens	63	895	5	14.2	45
Leon Johnson III (Tr)	33	539	1	16.3	67
Jaden Bray	30	382	2	12.7	45

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Jim Bob Clements (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nickolas Martin	140	16	6	8	0
Kendal Daniels	105	6	2	0	1
Trey Rucker	100	4	0	0	1
Collin Oliver	73	16	6	9	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nickolas Martin	140	16	6	8	0
Collin Oliver	73	16	6	9	5
Anthony Goodlow (Tr)	42	7	3	1	0
Nathan Latu	31	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Collin Oliver	73	16	6	9	5
Dylahn McKinney	38	0	0	0	5
Korie Black	17	1	0	0	5

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Rhys Plumlee	161	256	63%	2271	15	8	8.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)	64	102	63%	1065	9	3	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	226	1416	16	6.3	92
Johnny Richardson	87	573	1	6.6	79
John Rhys Plumlee	106	505	5	4.8	32
Xavier Townsend	15	163	0	10.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Baker	52	1139	7	21.9	86
Kobe Hudson	44	900	8	20.5	75
Xavier Townsend	33	325	3	9.8	37
Alec Holler	24	244	2	10.2	38

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Walter Yates	68	1	0	0	2
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1
Malachi Lawrence	24	9	6	5	1
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Corey Thornton	22	0	0	6
Quadric Bullard	28	0	0	3
Brandon Adams	19	1	1	2