Villanova at UCF - 2023 Matchup Preview
Villanova logo Villanova Wildcats at UCF KnightsUCF logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (6:30 PM EDT)
UCF -26.5 (54.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
UCF 48 - Villanova: 14

 
Wildcats (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 14 - 48 (14 - 48 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Rain Shower Predicted
Our Line: UCF -6.5  (SP+ UCF -5)
UCF Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 31 - 26 (40 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Villanova's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16 Villanova at UCF+26.554.0L 14 - 48ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Villanova's Schedule
UCF's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 UCF vs Kent State-35.054.0W 56 - 6OY
Sat 9/9 UCF at Boise State-3.058.5W 18 - 16UN
Sat 9/16 UCF vs Villanova-26.554.0W 48 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 UCF at Kansas State+6.053.5L 31 - 44ON
Sat 9/30 UCF vs Baylor-8.056.5L 35 - 36ON
Sat 10/7 UCF at Kansas-2.065.0L 22 - 51ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 UCF at Oklahoma+17.067.5L 29 - 31UY
Sat 10/28 UCF vs West Virginia-6.559.5L 28 - 41ON
Sat 11/4 UCF at Cincinnati-3.559.5W 28 - 26UN
Sat 11/11 UCF vs Oklahoma State+2.563.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 11/18 UCF at Texas Tech+2.059.0L 23 - 24UY
Sat 11/25 UCF vs Houston-15.561.5W 27 - 13UN
Fri 12/22 UCF vs Georgia Tech-6.066.5L 17 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NOVA0%140%000%000%480%0%0000
UCF#16 (.31)45% (41)31.347% (27)3.28 (36)22843% (57)2593.76 (80)#58 (.16)47% (125)25.851% (128)43% (80)3.79 (69)50.11.41.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NOVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UCF#58 (.21)46% (28)52% (8)3.62 (2)24838% (103)2003.75 (86)#63 (.16)40% (45)37% (12)42% (84)4.37 (118)54.41.60.9



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NOVA Offense114140%00000000%0%0%0%0%
UCF Defense1325.818.846.6%3.791.2 - - - - - 56%43%51%43%12%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NOVA Defense148480%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
UCF Offense1331.339.844.9%3.761.4234872282595.656%43%47%43%15%.31

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Villanova10:000NAN%0%0000000100
UCF1328:5223.149%57%6.150.11.41.24.21.7026.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NOVA Offense10%0%000000%0%0
UCF Defense1356% (121)51% (128) - - - - .23 (110)3.39 (117)81% (111)7% (127)0.99 (62)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NOVA Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
UCF Offense1356% (24)47% (27)40.7228.25.628 (25).24 (19)3.28 (36)71% (93)9% (48)1.14 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NOVA Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
UCF Defense1343% (11)43% (80) - - - - - - 12 (37).17 (17)1.4 (4)29% (120)34% (113).23 (33)5% (120)1.7 (1)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NOVA Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
UCF Offense1343% (111)43% (57)17.628.2258.89.214.724 (41)11 (68).48 (12)1.9 (5)30% (30)37% (15).52 (17)6% (51)2.2 (27)

Villanova's Power Ratings
Villanova's Power Rating: NR
Villanova's Offense Rating: NR
Villanova's Defense Rating: NR
2023 Talent Rating:  #240
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Villanova's 2023 Expected Record: -
Villanova's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Villanova's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Villanova's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average CAA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Villanova:    UCF: 6.465

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Villanova:    UCF: 4.5




UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 6.465  #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78  #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34  #89
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 8  #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5  #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Villanova Scoring
Offense: 14 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 48 PPG
Defense on Road: 48

Villanova's 2023 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UCF 31
Villanova 24

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
UCF 36
Villanova 15

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
UCF 42
Villanova 18

Total Points: 60
UCF Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.8
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/16UCF48Villanova14UCF -26.5UCF54.0Over
200609/02UCF35Villanova16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UCF211 Overs
Villanova000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#NR) NOVA at (#46) UCF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNOVAUCF
Power RatePwrNR #46
SP+SP+NR #48
Perf GradeGradeNR #38
OffenseOffNR #21
DefenseDefNR #87
Spec TeamsSTNR #109
TalentTal #240 #1
Blue ChipsBC%NR #53
Villanova on Offense
CategoryCat
NOVA OffUCF Def
Perf GradePerfNR #87
SuccessSucNR #125
ExplosiveExpNR #7
PPAPPANR #58
PowerPwrNR #89
SP+SP+NR #54
Pts POPPONR #69
HavocHavNR #128
Villanova Run Game
CategoryCat
NOVA OffUCF Def
Run GameRunNR #90
Run SuccessRSucNR #128
Run ExplRExpNR #62
PPAExpNR #110
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #117
Stuff RateStuffNR #78
TackleTak -  #88
Villanova Pass Game
CategoryCat
NOVA OffUCF Def
Pass GamePassNR #64
Pass SuccessPSucNR #80
Pass ExplPExlNR #4
PPAExpNR #17
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #94
F7 HavocF7NR #127
DB HavocDBNR #120
UCF on Offense
CategoryCatUCF OffNOVA Def
Perf GradePerf #21NR
SuccessSuc #41NR
ExplosiveExp #3NR
PPAPPA #16NR
PowerPwr #23NR
SP+SP+ #35NR
Pts POPPO #80NR
HavocHav #47NR
UCF Run Game
CategoryCat
UCF OffNOVA Def
Run GameRun #10NR
Run SuccessRSuc #27NR
Run ExplRExp #10NR
PPAExp #19NR
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLY #36NR
Stuff RateStuff #102NR
TackleTak - NR
UCF Pass Game
CategoryCatUCF OffNOVA Def
Pass GamePass #30NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #57NR
Pass ExplPExl #5NR
PPAExp #12NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #14NR
F7 HavocF7 #48NR
DB HavocDB #51NR
Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

NOVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions: Rain Shower
Temp: 83° - Wind: 11 mph
Rain: 0.004
Rematch from Week 3
UCF -26.5 (54.0)
UCF won vs Villanova this year (48-14)

Previous Matchups
UCF beat Villanova in 2023 (48-14)

  
NOVA's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Connor Watkins16431552%19991346.3
Tanner Maddocks61060%86008.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Ragland10150845.065
Connor Watkins11142473.845
Ja'briel Mace3817714.724
Isaiah Wright164602.925
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylan Sanchez33483314.672
Daniel Lopes13146011.223
Ja'briel Mace11130011.835
Kenyon Miles1110919.936

View Villanova's Full Roster

NOVA's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall331007
Ethan Potter101001
Shane Hartzell72100
Ayden Howard60000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shane Hartzell72100
Devon Marshall331007
Ethan Potter101001
Ayden Howard60000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall331007
Ethan Potter101001
Shane Hartzell72100

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Rhys Plumlee16125663%22711588.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)6410263%10659310.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
RJ Harvey2261416166.392
Johnny Richardson8757316.679
John Rhys Plumlee10650554.832
Xavier Townsend15163010.939
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Baker521139721.986
Kobe Hudson44900820.575
Xavier Townsend3332539.837
Alec Holler24244210.238

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Johnson1046301
Walter Yates681002
Lee Hunter5710211
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash5016921
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash5016921
Malachi Lawrence249651
Jason Johnson1046301
Lee Hunter5710211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Thornton220006
Quadric Bullard280003
Brandon Adams191012