UCF at Kansas - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
UCF -2 (65.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Kansas 51 - UCF: 22 (Big 12)

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

KU is playing their 6th straight game
UCF is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Kansas -7 (SP+ KU -5)
Projected Score: UCF: 26 - KU: 33 (59)
UCF Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
UCF Travel: 1076 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Jayhawks (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#32)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
KU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Kansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Kansas vs Missouri State	-32.5	60.5	W 48 - 17	O	N
Fri 9/8	Kansas vs Illinois	-3.5	57.5	W 34 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Kansas at Nevada	-28.5	58.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/23	Kansas vs BYU	-9.0	55.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Kansas at Texas	+15.5	61.0	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/7	Kansas vs UCF	+2.0	65.0	W 51 - 22	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Kansas at Oklahoma State	-3.0	54.0	L 32 - 39	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Kansas vs Oklahoma	+7.0	66.5	W 38 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Kansas at Iowa State	+2.5	53.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Kansas vs Texas Tech	-3.5	61.5	L 13 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/18	Kansas vs Kansas State	+7.0	60.5	L 27 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Kansas at Cincinnati	-7.5	59.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Kansas vs UNLV	-8.0	64.5	W 49 - 36	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	.24	47%	24.3	51%	3.38	228	44%	241	4.08	.21	41%	23.6	40%	43%	3.53	46.4	1.5	1.5
KU	.34	45%	28.1	42%	3.18	184	49%	254	4.46	.28	47%	26.8	50%	45%	4.01	46.5	1.5	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
KU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	14	24.3	12.8	47.4%	4.08	1.5	24	469	228	241	5.2	53%	46%	51%	44%	14%	.24
KU Defense	13	26.8	22.1	47.4%	4.01	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	50%	45%	12%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	14	23.6	34.6	41.2%	3.53	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	43%	16%	.21
KU Offense	13	28.1	32.6	44.8%	4.46	1.5	20	438	184	254	5.4	52%	48%	42%	49%	13%	.34

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	14	30:51	24.2	46%	63%	4.9	46.4	1.5	1.5	5	1.5	2	28
Kansas	13	28:50	20.3	51%	47%	5.3	46.5	1.5	1.8	4.4	1.8	1	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	14	53%	51%	43.9	228	5.2	35	.29	3.38	73%	10%	1.05
KU Defense	13	54%	50%	-	-	-	-	.28	3.49	77%	7%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	14	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.16	2.95	66%	10%	1.12
KU Offense	13	52%	42%	34.3	183.5	5.4	29	.2	3.18	74%	8%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	14	46%	44%	20.8	32.2	241.2	7.5	11.6	22	9	.21	1.4	27%	32%	.27	4%	1.9
KU Defense	13	45%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.35	1.5	29%	37%	.47	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	14	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.3	1.5	33%	30%	.29	6%	1.9
KU Offense	13	48%	49%	18.6	28.5	254.4	8.9	13.7	32	8	.53	1.8	31%	39%	.6	5%	2.1

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 3.43 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 653.97 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: 3.43 Kansas: 11.025

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 4.5 Kansas: 9.3

Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 11.025 #27
Kansas's Offense Rating: 26.78 #8
Kansas's Defense Rating: 12.15 #98
2023 Talent Rating: 632.68 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Kansas's 2023 Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40
Kansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas 33
UCF 26

Projected Total Points: 59

Kansas Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Kansas's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	UCF	20	Kansas	27	Kansas -4	Kansas	53.5	Under
2023	10/07	Kansas	51	UCF	22	UCF -2	Kansas	65.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas	2	2	1 Overs
UCF	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0

(#46) UCF at (#27) KU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	KU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#46	#27
SP+SP+	#48	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#38	#16
OffenseOff	#21	#9
DefenseDef	#87	#54
Spec TeamsST	#109	#10
TalentTal	#53	#62
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#69

UCF Injury Report

Kansas Injury Report

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	KU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#54
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#23	#98
SP+SP+	#35	#58
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	KU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#82

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	KU Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#28
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#14	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kansas on Offense


CategoryCat	KU Off	UCF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#9	#87
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#8	#89
SP+SP+	#22	#54
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kansas Run Game


CategoryCat	KU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#48	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#88

Kansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	KU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#21	#94
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
KU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
UCF 2.0 (65.0)
Kansas won vs UCF this year (51-22)

Previous Matchups
Kansas beat UCF last year (27-20)
Kansas beat UCF in 2023 (51-22)

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Rhys Plumlee	161	256	63%	2271	15	8	8.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)	64	102	63%	1065	9	3	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	226	1416	16	6.3	92
Johnny Richardson	87	573	1	6.6	79
John Rhys Plumlee	106	505	5	4.8	32
Xavier Townsend	15	163	0	10.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Baker	52	1139	7	21.9	86
Kobe Hudson	44	900	8	20.5	75
Xavier Townsend	33	325	3	9.8	37
Alec Holler	24	244	2	10.2	38

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Walter Yates	68	1	0	0	2
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1
Malachi Lawrence	24	9	6	5	1
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Corey Thornton	22	0	0	6
Quadric Bullard	28	0	0	3
Brandon Adams	19	1	1	2

KU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jason Bean	124	199	62%	2130	18	7	10.7
Jalon Daniels	56	75	75%	705	5	1	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Neal	203	1280	16	6.3	75
Daniel Hishaw Jr.	121	626	8	5.2	29
Jason Bean	47	282	3	6.0	50
Dylan McDuffie (Tr)	45	253	4	5.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lawrence Arnold	44	782	6	17.8	80
Quentin Skinner	29	587	2	20.2	49
Luke Grimm	33	555	6	16.8	60
Mason Fairchild	27	451	3	16.7	59

View Kansas's Full Roster

KU's DC Brian Borland (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kenny Logan Jr.	86	5	0	0	6
Austin Booker (Tr)	55	12	8	0	1
JB Brown (Tr)	54	5	2	1	2
Rich Miller	52	3	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Austin Booker (Tr)	55	12	8	0	1
Jereme Robinson	23	6	5	5	6
JB Brown (Tr)	54	5	2	1	2
Rich Miller	52	3	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ra'Mello Dotson	34	1	1	1	8
Kenny Logan Jr.	86	5	0	0	6
Jereme Robinson	23	6	5	5	6