Houston at UCF - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
UCF -15.5 (61.5) (0) Open: 0.0
UCF 27 - Houston: 13 (Big 12)

Cougars (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dana Holgorsen (28 - 22)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (31 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#122)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UCF is playing their 6th straight game
HOU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: UCF -14 (SP+ UCF -13)
Projected Score: HOU: 21 - UCF: 35 (56)
UCF Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
HOU Travel: 857 miles, 1 hrs behind

Knights (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (21 - 9)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (33 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
HOU Players
UCF Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Houston's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Houston vs UTSA	+2.5	59.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Houston at Rice	-7.5	51.0	L 41 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/16	Houston vs TCU	+7.5	64.0	L 13 - 36	U	N
Sat 9/23	Houston vs Sam Houston	-11.5	37.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Houston at Texas Tech	+8.5	52.0	L 28 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12	Houston vs West Virginia	+3.0	49.5	W 41 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Houston vs Texas	+24.0	60.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Houston at Kansas State	+17.5	61.0	L 0 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/4	Houston at Baylor	+3.0	58.5	W 25 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Houston vs Cincinnati	-3.5	53.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Houston vs Oklahoma State	+6.5	56.5	L 30 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/25	Houston at UCF	+15.5	61.5	L 13 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Houston's Schedule

UCF's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	UCF vs Kent State	-35.0	54.0	W 56 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/9	UCF at Boise State	-3.0	58.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/16	UCF vs Villanova	-26.5	54.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UCF at Kansas State	+6.0	53.5	L 31 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/30	UCF vs Baylor	-8.0	56.5	L 35 - 36	O	N
Sat 10/7	UCF at Kansas	-2.0	65.0	L 22 - 51	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	UCF at Oklahoma	+17.0	67.5	L 29 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/28	UCF vs West Virginia	-6.5	59.5	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/4	UCF at Cincinnati	-3.5	59.5	W 28 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/11	UCF vs Oklahoma State	+2.5	63.5	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UCF at Texas Tech	+2.0	59.0	L 23 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	UCF vs Houston	-15.5	61.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Fri 12/22	UCF vs Georgia Tech	-6.0	66.5	L 17 - 30	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU	.33	47%	29.1	46%	3.38	142	49%	314	4.76	.22	43%	22.8	42%	44%	3.86	69.9	1.5	1.2
UCF	.24	47%	24.3	51%	3.38	228	44%	241	4.08	.21	41%	23.6	40%	43%	3.53	46.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Offense	13	29.1	31	47.5%	4.76	1.5	23	456	142	314	4.6	42%	57%	46%	49%	14%	.33
UCF Defense	14	23.6	15.7	41.2%	3.53	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	43%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HOU Defense	13	22.8	19.5	43%	3.86	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	44%	18%	.22
UCF Offense	14	24.3	32.6	47.4%	4.08	1.5	24	469	228	241	5.2	53%	46%	51%	44%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Houston	13	29:52	23.5	45%	67%	7.8	69.9	1.5	1.2	6.8	2.2	3	30.2
UCF	14	30:51	24.2	46%	63%	4.9	46.4	1.5	1.5	5	1.5	2	28

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Offense	13	42%	46%	30.8	142.1	4.6	17	.19	3.38	69%	9%	1.01
UCF Defense	14	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.16	2.95	66%	10%	1.12

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HOU Defense	13	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.79	83%	12%	1.08
UCF Offense	14	53%	51%	43.9	228	5.2	35	.29	3.38	73%	10%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Offense	13	57%	49%	25.9	38.5	314	8.2	12.1	40	10	.48	1.6	30%	40%	.64	5%	2
UCF Defense	14	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.3	1.5	33%	30%	.29	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HOU Defense	13	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.33	1.6	34%	35%	.38	6%	2.1
UCF Offense	14	46%	44%	20.8	32.2	241.2	7.5	11.6	22	9	.21	1.4	27%	32%	.27	4%	1.9

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: -6.49 #97
Houston's Offense Rating: 13.48 #95
Houston's Defense Rating: 14.57 #113
2023 Talent Rating: 670.25 #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #53
Houston's 2023 Expected Record: 3.80 - 8.20
Houston's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.3 #95
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #73
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.5 #104

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Houston: -6.49 UCF: 6.465

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Houston: -8.3 UCF: 4.5

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: 6.465 #46
UCF's Offense Rating: 22.78 #23
UCF's Defense Rating: 11.34 #89
2023 Talent Rating: 653.97 #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #53
UCF's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
UCF's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.5 #48
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #54

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Houston's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
UCF 35
Houston 21

Projected Total Points: 56

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

UCF's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/07	UCF	27	Houston	30	UCF -1.5	Houston	47.5	Over
2023	11/25	UCF	27	Houston	13	UCF -15.5	Houston	61.5	Under
2020	10/31	Houston	21	UCF	44	UCF -3	UCF	81.0	Under
2019	11/02	UCF	44	Houston	29	UCF -22	Houston	72.0	Over
2016	10/29	Houston	31	UCF	24	Houston -12.5	UCF	59.0	Under
2015	10/24	UCF	10	Houston	59	Houston -18.5	Houston	53.0	Over
2014	10/02	Houston	12	UCF	17	Houston -2.5	UCF	0
2013	11/09	UCF	19	Houston	14	UCF -10	Houston	0
2010	11/05	Houston	33	UCF	40
2009	11/14	UCF	37	Houston	32
2006	10/28	Houston	51	UCF	31
2005	11/05	UCF	31	Houston	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UCF	8	3	3 Overs
Houston	4	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	0 - 8	0 - 6	0 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 7	8 - 0	2 - 0	6 - 0

(#97) HOU at (#46) UCF

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HOU	UCF
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#97	#46
SP+SP+	#95	#48
Perf GradeGrade	#99	#38
OffenseOff	#72	#21
DefenseDef	#113	#87
Spec TeamsST	#111	#109
TalentTal	#49	#53
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#53

Houston Injury Report

UCF Injury Report

Houston on Offense


CategoryCat	HOU Off	UCF Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#72	#87
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#95	#89
SP+SP+	#73	#54
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Houston Run Game


CategoryCat	HOU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	#102	#90
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#62	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#88

Houston Pass Game


CategoryCat	HOU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	#63	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#46	#94
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

UCF on Offense


CategoryCat	UCF Off	HOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#113
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#23	#113
SP+SP+	#35	#104
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

UCF Run Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	#10	#92
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#101

UCF Pass Game


CategoryCat	UCF Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#14	#122
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

HOU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bright House Networks Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
UCF -15.5 (61.5)
UCF won vs Houston this year (27-13)

Previous Matchups
Houston beat UCF last year (30-27)
UCF beat Houston in 2023 (27-13)

HOU's OC Dana Holgorsen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Donovan Smith (Tr)	255	396	64%	2800	22	13	7.1
Ui Ale	4	8	50%	69	1	0	8.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Parker Jenkins	99	464	3	4.7	31
Donovan Smith (Tr)	138	429	6	3.1	35
Stacy Sneed	48	282	1	5.9	58
Tony Mathis (Tr)	41	170	0	4.1	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sam Brown	61	815	3	13.4	53
Joseph Manjack	46	577	6	12.5	49
Matthew Golden	38	404	6	10.6	39
Stephon Johnson Jr.	23	269	3	11.7	49

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Doug Belk (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
A.J. Haulcy	90	1	1	2
Malik Robinson	73	2	2	1
Jamal Morris	59	2	2	5
Isaiah Hamilton (Tr)	46	2	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nelson Ceaser	36	10	7	3	0
Jamaree Caldwell	26	9	7	0	0
David Ugwoegbu (Tr)	41	6	3	2	3
Anthony Holmes Jr.	20	5	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jamal Morris	59	2	2	5
Malik Fleming (Tr)	39	2	0	5
Isaiah Hamilton (Tr)	46	2	1	4

UCF's OC Darin Hinshaw (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Rhys Plumlee	161	256	63%	2271	15	8	8.9
Timmy McClain (Tr)	64	102	63%	1065	9	3	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
RJ Harvey	226	1416	16	6.3	92
Johnny Richardson	87	573	1	6.6	79
John Rhys Plumlee	106	505	5	4.8	32
Xavier Townsend	15	163	0	10.9	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Baker	52	1139	7	21.9	86
Kobe Hudson	44	900	8	20.5	75
Xavier Townsend	33	325	3	9.8	37
Alec Holler	24	244	2	10.2	38

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Walter Yates	68	1	0	0	2
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre'Mon Morris-Brash	50	16	9	2	1
Malachi Lawrence	24	9	6	5	1
Jason Johnson	104	6	3	0	1
Lee Hunter	57	10	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Corey Thornton	22	0	0	6
Quadric Bullard	28	0	0	3
Brandon Adams	19	1	1	2