Central Michigan at Notre Dame - 2023 Matchup Preview

Central Michigan Chippewas at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (2:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -34.5 (51.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Notre Dame 41 - Central Michigan: 17

Chippewas (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (25 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (19 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Notre Dame -37.5 (SP+ ND -38)
Projected Score: CMU: 8 - ND: 45 (53)
ND Win prob: 100% | Cover: 58%
CMU Travel: 150 miles

Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (45 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CMU Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Central Michigan at Michigan State	+14.0	45.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/9	Central Michigan vs New Hampshire	-7.0	48.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Central Michigan at Notre Dame	+34.5	51.5	L 17 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Central Michigan at South Alabama	+16.5	46.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	45.0	W 26 - 23	O	N
Sat 10/7	Central Michigan at Buffalo	-2.5	51.5	L 13 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/14	Central Michigan vs Akron	-10.5	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/21	Central Michigan at Ball State	-5.0	42.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+3.0	48.0	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Central Michigan at Western Michigan	+3.5	57.5	L 28 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/15	Central Michigan at Ohio	+11.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Fri 11/24	Central Michigan vs Toledo	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 32	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Notre Dame vs Navy	-20.5	49.0	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Notre Dame vs Tennessee State	-48.5	55.0	W 56 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Notre Dame at NC State	-7.0	49.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Notre Dame vs Central Michigan	-34.5	51.5	W 41 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/23	Notre Dame vs Ohio State	+3.0	55.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Notre Dame at Duke	-5.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Notre Dame at Louisville	-6.5	53.0	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/14	Notre Dame vs USC	-3.0	61.0	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh	-21.0	45.5	W 58 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Notre Dame at Clemson	-3.0	44.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Notre Dame vs Wake Forest	-22.5	47.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Notre Dame at Stanford	-26.0	50.5	W 56 - 23	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Notre Dame vs Oregon State	-5.5	40.5	W 40 - 8	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CMU	.1	38%	22.5	40%	3.03	159	38%	208	3.29	.17	41%	23.5	41%	42%	3.58	62.8	2.3	1
ND	.2	48%	42	49%	3.34	189	46%	207	3.99	.14	39%	17.6	44%	35%	3.92	42.3	1.4	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CMU Offense	12	22.5	19.1	38.5%	3.29	2.3	20	367	159	208	4.3	47%	51%	40%	38%	23%	.1
ND Defense	13	17.6	18	38.9%	3.92	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	44%	35%	15%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CMU Defense	12	23.5	28	41.2%	3.58	1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	41%	42%	22%	.17
ND Offense	13	42	44.7	47.6%	3.99	1.4	22	396	189	207	4.6	58%	41%	49%	46%	12%	.2

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Central Michigan	12	28:46	19.9	35%	55%	6.9	62.8	2.3	1	8.3	2.5	0	28.7
Notre Dame	13	32:10	21.6	47%	44%	4.6	42.3	1.4	1.4	6	2.8	3	33.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CMU Offense	12	47%	40%	37	159.2	4.3	22	.05	3.03	62%	13%	1.09
ND Defense	13	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.01	63%	11%	1.06

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CMU Defense	12	54%	41%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.96	74%	15%	1.06
ND Offense	13	58%	49%	40.8	189.1	4.6	25	.16	3.34	73%	7%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CMU Offense	12	51%	38%	18.3	32.4	208.1	6.4	11.4	16	10	.19	1.6	36%	33%	.33	10%	2.1
ND Defense	13	51%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.14	1.7	33%	26%	.28	4%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CMU Defense	12	46%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.28	1.6	34%	30%	.27	8%	2.1
ND Offense	13	41%	46%	16.2	26	207.2	8	12.8	25	11	.27	1.6	26%	33%	.35	5%	1.9

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -11.77 #124
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.74 #74
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 17.30 #125
2023 Talent Rating: 332.64 #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Central Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Central Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.2 #126
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #119
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -11.77 Notre Dame: 21.915

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -19.2 Notre Dame: 19.1

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 21.915 #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62 #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24 #12
2023 Talent Rating: 870.70 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 67 #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1 #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8 #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 677.82
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.1
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Central Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 45
Central Michigan 8

Projected Total Points: 53

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Notre Dame	41	Central Michigan	17	Notre Dame -34.5	Central Michigan	51.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	1	0	1 Overs
Central Michigan	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#124) CMU at (#6) ND

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CMU	ND
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#124	#6
SP+SP+	#126	#9
Perf GradeGrade	#111	#2
OffenseOff	#113	#5
DefenseDef	#101	#3
Spec TeamsST	#34	#2
TalentTal	#126	#11
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#9

Central Michigan Injury Report

Notre Dame Injury Report

Central Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	CMU Off	ND Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#113	#3
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#74	#12
SP+SP+	#119	#11
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Central Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#98	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#80	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#38

Central Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#4
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#8
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Notre Dame on Offense


CategoryCat	ND Off	CMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#5	#101
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#11	#125
SP+SP+	#17	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Notre Dame Run Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#15	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#30	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#53

Notre Dame Pass Game


CategoryCat	ND Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#17	#98
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#25	#92
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

CMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Notre Dame -34.5 (51.5)
Notre Dame won vs Central Michigan this year (41-17)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Central Michigan in 2023 (41-17)

CMU's OC Paul Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jase Bauer	163	287	57%	1881	12	8	6.6
Bert Emanuel Jr.	19	37	51%	286	3	3	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marion Lukes	144	737	5	5.1	46
Myles Bailey	102	476	3	4.7	48
Jase Bauer	121	366	10	3.0	29
Bert Emanuel Jr.	50	220	2	4.4	66

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyson Davis	29	444	4	15.3	67
Jesse Prewitt III	31	438	4	14.1	70
Chris Parker	23	409	3	17.8	62
Marion Lukes	29	300	0	10.3	44

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Jones	61	3	0	0	2
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Dakota Cochran	51	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacques Bristol	41	8	4	5	2
Maurice White	18	5	4	5	0
Quindario Lee	26	7	3	4	0
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Daraun McKinney	39	3	0	1	4

ND's OC Gerad Parker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)	191	301	64%	2689	24	8	8.9
Steven Angeli	34	44	77%	504	7	1	11.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Audric Estime	210	1341	18	6.4	80
Jeremiyah Love	71	385	1	5.4	36
Jadarian Price	47	272	3	5.8	54
Gi'Bran Payne	45	168	2	3.7	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Tyree	26	484	3	18.6	76
Mitchell Evans	29	422	1	14.6	36
Rico Flores	27	392	1	14.5	60
Jordan Faison	19	322	4	16.9	55

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
JD Bertrand	76	8	3	7	5
Howard Cross III	65	7	2	4	2
Jack Kiser	52	1	1	3	1
Xavier Watts	47	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)	46	10	5	8	1
Jordan Botelho	29	5	4	3	0
Marist Liufau	42	6	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah	20	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Benjamin Morrison	30	4	0	0	9
JD Bertrand	76	8	3	7	5
Cam Hart	19	2	0	0	4