Navy at Notre Dame - 2023 Matchup Preview
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#10)Notre Dame logo
Saturday, August 26th 2023 (2:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -20.5 (49.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Notre Dame 42 - Navy: 3

 
Midshipmen (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (18 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Rain Shower Predicted
Our Line: Notre Dame -31  (SP+ ND -33)
Projected Score: NAVY: 9 - ND: 40 (48)
ND Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
NAVY Travel: 545 miles
Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 39 - 16 (44 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Navy's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Navy vs Notre Dame+20.549.0L 3 - 42UN
Sat 9/9 Navy vs Wagner-43.549.0W 24 - 0UN
Thu 9/14 Navy at Memphis+12.547.0L 24 - 28OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/30 Navy vs South Florida-4.054.0L 30 - 44ON
Sat 10/7 Navy vs North Texas-6.560.5W 27 - 24UN
Sat 10/14 Navy at Charlotte-3.544.0W 14 - 0UY
Sat 10/21 Navy vs Air Force+11.034.0L 6 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Navy at Temple-7.046.0L 18 - 32ON
Sat 11/11 Navy vs UAB+3.552.5W 31 - 6UY
Sat 11/18 Navy vs East Carolina-2.530.5W 10 - 0UY
Sat 11/25 Navy at SMU+20.046.0L 14 - 59ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/9 Navy vs Army+2.028.0L 11 - 17UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-20.549.0W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/2 Notre Dame vs Tennessee State-48.555.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/9 Notre Dame at NC State-7.049.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 9/16 Notre Dame vs Central Michigan-34.551.5W 41 - 17ON
Sat 9/23 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+3.055.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 Notre Dame at Duke-5.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 10/7 Notre Dame at Louisville-6.553.0L 20 - 33UN
Sat 10/14 Notre Dame vs USC-3.061.0W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh-21.045.5W 58 - 7OY
Sat 11/4 Notre Dame at Clemson-3.044.5L 23 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Notre Dame vs Wake Forest-22.547.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 11/25 Notre Dame at Stanford-26.050.5W 56 - 23OY
Fri 12/29 Notre Dame vs Oregon State-5.540.5W 40 - 8OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#121 (.07)37% (117)17.739% (111)2.86 (108)19532% (131)1062.38 (133)#45 (.15)41% (51)22.437% (23)45% (114)2.84 (7)4612
ND#8 (.35)49% (9)39.251% (9)3.37 (15)18648% (19)2474.87 (7)#6 (.04)35% (7)15.937% (21)33% (3)2.97 (11)48.21.31.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1217.717.537.1%2.381153001951064.371%29%39%32%14%.07
ND Defense1315.911.834.6%2.971.8 - - - - - 50%49%37%33%18%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense1222.429.840.6%2.842 - - - - - 50%49%37%45%17%.15
ND Offense1339.243.749.3%4.871.3214331862475.352%47%51%48%11%.35

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1231:1514.529%62%5.746125.22.3132.4
Notre Dame1330:4820.945%59%5.448.21.31.84.81.9429.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1271% (3)39% (111)45.7194.64.316 (89).07 (110)2.86 (108)72% (83)12% (101)1.02 (57)
ND Defense1350% (61)37% (21) - - - - .07 (29)2.85 (26)67% (34)11% (50)1.05 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1250% (67)37% (23) - - - - .02 (15)2.87 (30)67% (34)11% (36)0.86 (16)
ND Offense1352% (45)51% (9)35.2186.35.328 (25).23 (27)3.37 (15)72% (83)7% (10)0.97 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1229% (131)32% (131)8.516.6105.76.412.410 (120)5 (6).11 (121)1.8 (15)31% (61)21% (132).06 (131)2% (3)2 (88)
ND Defense1349% (67)33% (3) - - - - - - 16 (9).04 (2)1.5 (40)36% (14)25% (14).23 (26)7% (27)1.9 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1249% (65)45% (114) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (103)1.6 (75)31% (97)28% (40).34 (83)6% (88)2.2 (113)
ND Offense1347% (85)48% (19)17.527246.59.114.131 (14)9 (40).51 (8)1.8 (16)28% (10)37% (19).53 (14)4% (11)2.1 (60)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: -9.54  #116
Navy's Offense Rating: 8.74  #126
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.60  #30
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Navy's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Navy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.9  #114
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #124
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #72

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: -9.54   Notre Dame: 19.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: -13.9   Notre Dame: 19.1




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 19.415  #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62  #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24  #12
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 67  #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1  #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8  #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Navy Scoring
Offense: 17.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 22.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Navy's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 40
Navy 9

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 29
Navy 15

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 34
Navy 16

Total Points: 50
Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 39.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Notre Dame49Navy10Notre Dame -30.5Notre Dame54.5Over
202410/26Navy14Notre Dame51Notre Dame -14.0Notre Dame50.5Over
202308/26Notre Dame42Navy3Notre Dame -20.5Notre Dame49.0Under
202211/12Navy32Notre Dame35Notre Dame -17Navy40.5Over
202111/06Notre Dame34Navy6Notre Dame -21Notre Dame47.5Under
201911/16Notre Dame52Navy20Notre Dame -7.5Notre Dame55.5Over
201810/27Navy22Notre Dame44Notre Dame -21.5Notre Dame55.5Over
201711/18Notre Dame24Navy17Notre Dame -20.5Navy58.5Under
201611/05Navy28Notre Dame27Navy -4.5Notre Dame63.0Under
201510/10Notre Dame41Navy24Notre Dame -16Notre Dame59.5Over
201411/01Navy39Notre Dame49Notre Dame -13.5Navy0
201311/02Notre Dame38Navy34Notre Dame -17Navy0
201209/01Navy10Notre Dame50
201110/29Notre Dame56Navy14
201010/23Navy35Notre Dame17
200911/07Notre Dame21Navy23
200811/15Navy21Notre Dame27
200711/03Notre Dame44Navy46
200610/28Navy14Notre Dame38
200511/12Notre Dame42Navy21
200410/16Navy9Notre Dame27
200311/08Notre Dame27Navy24
200211/09Navy23Notre Dame30
200111/17Notre Dame34Navy16
200010/13Notre Dame45Navy14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame2186 Overs
Navy444 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 117 - 55 - 32 - 2
Road Teams11 - 145 - 72 - 23 - 5

(#116) NAVY at (#6) ND
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNAVYND
Power RatePwr #116 #6
SP+SP+ #114 #9
Perf GradeGrade #105 #2
OffenseOff #114 #5
DefenseDef #64 #3
Spec TeamsST #49 #2
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #9
Navy on Offense
CategoryCat
NAVY OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #114 #3
SuccessSuc #117 #7
ExplosiveExp #111 #57
PPAPPA #121 #6
PowerPwr #126 #12
SP+SP+ #124 #11
Pts POPPO #133 #11
HavocHav #33 #32
Navy Run Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffND Def
Run GameRun #125 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #111 #21
Run ExplRExp #57 #92
PPAExp #110 #29
Run BlockR Blk #19 -
OL YdsOLY #108 #26
Stuff RateStuff #84 #18
TackleTak -  #38
Navy Pass Game
CategoryCat
NAVY OffND Def
Pass GamePass #127 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #3
Pass ExplPExl #15 #40
PPAExp #121 #2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #136 #8
F7 HavocF7 #101 #50
DB HavocDB #3 #27
Notre Dame on Offense
CategoryCatND OffNAVY Def
Perf GradePerf #5 #64
SuccessSuc #9 #51
ExplosiveExp #44 #59
PPAPPA #8 #45
PowerPwr #11 #30
SP+SP+ #17 #72
Pts POPPO #7 #7
HavocHav #7 #56
Notre Dame Run Game
CategoryCat
ND OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #15 #62
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #23
Run ExplRExp #86 #16
PPAExp #27 #15
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #15 #30
Stuff RateStuff #36 #33
TackleTak -  #89
Notre Dame Pass Game
CategoryCatND OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #17 #88
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #114
Pass ExplPExl #16 #75
PPAExp #8 #103
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25 #88
F7 HavocF7 #10 #36
DB HavocDB #11 #88
Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aviva Stadium
Conditions: Rain Shower
Temp: 58° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Notre Dame -20.5 (49.0)
Notre Dame won vs Navy this year (42-3)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Navy last year (51-14)
Notre Dame beat Navy in 2023 (42-3)
Notre Dame beat Navy in 2022 (35-32)

  
NAVY's OC Grant Chesnut (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tai Lavatai5610155%701526.9
Xavier Arline234452%320227.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Alex Tecza12675856.075
Daba Fofana7228333.920
Xavier Arline7725723.350
Tai Lavatai7524523.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich19382420.169
Brandon Chatman19254013.458
Jayden Umbarger14145110.422
Alex Tecza169706.116

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Ramos948264
Will Harbour768340
Rayuan Lane623117
Mbiti Williams Jr.550003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Reed448551
Landon Robinson285410
Luke Pirris529413
Will Harbour768340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rayuan Lane623117
Colin Ramos948264
Dashaun Peele321004

ND's OC Gerad Parker (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)19130164%26892488.9
Steven Angeli344477%5047111.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Audric Estime2101341186.480
Jeremiyah Love7138515.436
Jadarian Price4727235.854
Gi'Bran Payne4516823.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Tyree26484318.676
Mitchell Evans29422114.636
Rico Flores27392114.560
Jordan Faison19322416.955

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JD Bertrand768375
Howard Cross III657242
Jack Kiser521131
Xavier Watts473103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)4610581
Jordan Botelho295430
Marist Liufau426321
Nana Osafo-Mensah206320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Benjamin Morrison304009
JD Bertrand768375
Cam Hart192004