Oregon State at Notre Dame - 2023 Matchup Preview

Oregon State Beavers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#6)

Friday, December 29th 2023 (2:00 PM EST)
Notre Dame -5.5 (40.5) (210) Open: -11.0 | 45.5
Notre Dame 40 - Oregon State: 8 (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl)

Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (31 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Notre Dame -6.5 (SP+ ND -4)
Projected Score: ORST: 21 - ND: 28 (49)
ND Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
ORST Travel: 1863 miles, 3 hrs behind

Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 39 - 16 (44 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ORST Players
ND Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Oregon State at San José State	-14.0	56.5	W 42 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon State vs UC Davis	-24.0	57.0	W 55 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon State vs San Diego State	-24.5	48.5	W 26 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/23	Oregon State at Washington State	-3.0	58.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 9/29	Oregon State vs Utah	-4.0	43.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Oregon State at California	-7.5	51.0	W 52 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Oregon State vs UCLA	-3.5	53.5	W 36 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Oregon State at Arizona	-3.0	57.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Oregon State at Colorado	-13.0	60.5	W 26 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	Oregon State vs Stanford	-21.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Oregon State vs Washington	-1.5	62.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Fri 11/24	Oregon State at Oregon	+14.0	61.5	L 7 - 31	U	N
Fri 12/29	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Notre Dame vs Navy	-20.5	49.0	W 42 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Notre Dame vs Tennessee State	-48.5	55.0	W 56 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Notre Dame at NC State	-7.0	49.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Notre Dame vs Central Michigan	-34.5	51.5	W 41 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/23	Notre Dame vs Ohio State	+3.0	55.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Notre Dame at Duke	-5.5	52.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Notre Dame at Louisville	-6.5	53.0	L 20 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/14	Notre Dame vs USC	-3.0	61.0	W 48 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh	-21.0	45.5	W 58 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Notre Dame at Clemson	-3.0	44.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Notre Dame vs Wake Forest	-22.5	47.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Notre Dame at Stanford	-26.0	50.5	W 56 - 23	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Notre Dame vs Oregon State	-5.5	40.5	W 40 - 8	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	#13 (.32)	48% (14)	31.8	52% (6)	3.24 (43)	167	45% (39)	242	4.78 (11)	#39 (.14)	44% (91)	22.9	46% (102)	43% (81)	3.42 (37)	50.1	1	1.5
ND	#8 (.35)	49% (9)	39.2	51% (9)	3.37 (15)	186	48% (19)	247	4.87 (7)	#6 (.04)	35% (7)	15.9	37% (21)	33% (3)	2.97 (11)	48.2	1.3	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)		47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)		50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1
ND	#8 (.32)	47% (22)		47% (26)	3.31 (24)	181	47% (21)	160	4.8 (5)	#1 (-.02)	36% (8)		43% (73)	29% (1)	2.75 (4)	42.4	0.8	1.8

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	13	31.8	31	48.1%	4.78	1	21	409	167	242	4.9	52%	47%	52%	45%	14%	.32
ND Defense	13	15.9	11.8	34.6%	2.97	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	33%	18%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	13	22.9	28.7	43.8%	3.42	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	46%	43%	18%	.14
ND Offense	13	39.2	43.7	49.3%	4.87	1.3	21	433	186	247	5.3	52%	47%	51%	48%	11%	.35

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	13	30:39	21.4	39%	57%	5.5	50.1	1	1.5	5.5	2.7	2	29.7
Notre Dame	13	30:48	20.9	45%	59%	5.4	48.2	1.3	1.8	4.8	1.9	4	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	13	52% (51)	52% (6)	34.2	167.1	4.9	26 (30)	.23 (26)	3.24 (43)	73% (79)	9% (43)	0.97 (85)
ND Defense	13	50% (61)	37% (21)	-	-	-	-	.07 (29)	2.85 (26)	67% (34)	11% (50)	1.05 (92)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	13	46% (20)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.09 (35)	2.9 (36)	84% (122)	10% (61)	0.84 (10)
ND Offense	13	52% (45)	51% (9)	35.2	186.3	5.3	28 (25)	.23 (27)	3.37 (15)	72% (83)	7% (10)	0.97 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	13	47% (82)	45% (39)	17.1	29.2	242.2	8.3	14.2	26 (31)	8 (30)	.44 (21)	1.8 (17)	32% (77)	37% (17)	.56 (9)	6% (48)	2.2 (24)
ND Defense	13	49% (67)	33% (3)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.04 (2)	1.5 (40)	36% (14)	25% (14)	.23 (26)	7% (27)	1.9 (20)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	13	53% (114)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.26 (60)	1.6 (61)	33% (54)	33% (111)	.3 (59)	7% (22)	2 (46)
ND Offense	13	47% (85)	48% (19)	17.5	27	246.5	9.1	14.1	31 (14)	9 (40)	.51 (8)	1.8 (16)	28% (10)	37% (19)	.53 (14)	4% (11)	2.1 (60)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 11.36 #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 11.36 Notre Dame: 19.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.7 Notre Dame: 19.1

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 19.415 #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62 #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24 #12
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 67 #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1 #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8 #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.7

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 28
Oregon State 21

Total Points: 49

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 39.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/29	Notre Dame	40	Oregon State	8	Notre Dame	Notre Dame -5.5	Notre Dame	40.5	Over
2004	12/28	Oregon State	38	Notre Dame	21	Oregon State
2000	12/31	Oregon State	41	Notre Dame	9	Oregon State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Notre Dame	1	1	1 Overs
Oregon State	2	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

Oregon State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Sun Bowl	Oregon State vs Notre Dame	+5.5	40.5	L 8 - 40
2022	Vegas Bowl	Oregon State vs Florida	-7.5	52.0	W 30 - 3
2021	La Bowl	Oregon State vs Utah State	-7.0	68.0	L 13 - 24

Notre Dame Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Sun Bowl	Notre Dame vs Oregon State	-5.5	40.5	W 40 - 8
2022	Gator Bowl	Notre Dame vs South Carolina	-5.0	50.5	W 45 - 38
2021	Fiesta Bowl	Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State	+1.5	45.5	L 35 - 37
2020	CFP Semifinal	Notre Dame vs Alabama	+20.0	66.0	L 14 - 31
2019	World Bowl	Notre Dame vs Iowa State	-4.0	55.0	W 33 - 9
2018	CFP Semifinal	Notre Dame vs Clemson	+10.5	58.0	L 3 - 30
2017	Citrus Bowl	Notre Dame vs LSU	+2.0	52.0	W 21 - 17

(#17) Oregon State Info
Power Rating: 11.36 #17
Offense Rating: 25.78 #10
Defense Rating: 7.19 #39
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7 #17
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #32
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #66
Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30

Oregon State has played in 3 Bowls in the last 5 years (1 - 2)
Oregon State has played in 13 Bowls since 2000 (8 - 5)

Oregon State Highlights
Oregon State offense is efficent (#40)
Oregon State offense is good in red zone (#55)
Oregon State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Oregon State Secondary is very good (#41)
Oregon State has a great TO Margin (#116)

Oregon State Deficiencies

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	ND	ORST
OverallOver	#2	#15
OffenseOff	#5	#11
DefenseDef	#3	#50
Special TeamsST	#2	#47
PassingPass	#16	#33
RushingRush	#11	#20
Run BlockRBLK	#24	#2
Pass BlockPBLK	#23	#82
Route RunningWR Rt	#4	#10
TacklingTkl	#34	#118
Run DefenseR Def	#6	#46
Pass Rush DefPRush	#7	#81
Coverage DefCov	#3	#52

Rematch from Week 1
Notre Dame -5.5 (40.5)
Notre Dame won vs Oregon State this year (40-8)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Oregon State in 2023 (40-8)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ORST | ND
Depth Chart: ORST | ND
Rosters: ORST | ND

(#6) Notre Dame Info
Power Rating: 19.415 #6
Offense Rating: 25.62 #11
Defense Rating: 1.24 #12
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1 #9
Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8 #17
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #11
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 67 #9
Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70

Notre Dame has played in 6 CFP Playoff Games (3 - 3)
Notre Dame has played in 10 Bowls in the last 5 years (6 - 4)
Notre Dame has played in 23 Bowls since 2000 (11 - 12)

Notre Dame Highlights
Notre Dame has Really Good Running Game (#126)
Notre Dame offense is efficent (#75)
Notre Dame has a top Offensive Line (#115)
Notre Dame offense is good in red zone (#22)
Notre Dame offense is good on 3rd downs
Notre Dame has a really good defense (#104)
Notre Dame defense is really good in red zone (#113)
Notre Dame has a good run defense (#85)
Notre Dame has a good pass defense (#110)
Notre Dame Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#114)
Notre Dame Defensive Line is very good (#88)
Notre Dame Secondary is very good (#113)
Notre Dame defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Notre Dame Deficiencies

Oregon State's OC Brian Lindgren

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	180	315	57%	2638	21	7	8.4
Aidan Chiles	24	35	69%	309	4	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez	194	1185	9	6.1	64
Deshaun Fenwick	96	515	5	5.4	38
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	68	219	6	3.2	26
Silas Bolden	9	84	2	9.3	45

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Silas Bolden	54	746	5	13.8	50
Anthony Gould	44	718	2	16.3	75
Jack Velling	29	438	8	15.1	41
Jesiah Irish	18	302	1	16.8	38

View Oregon State's Full Roster

Oregon State's DC Trent Bray

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold	106	7	2	3	0
Kitan Oladapo	73	3	1	1	7
Akili Arnold	62	2	1	2	6
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.	28	10	10	4	2
John McCartan	47	9	5	4	2
Calvin Hart Jr.	61	7	4	1	0
Joe Golden	42	4	4	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaden Robinson	33	1	1	0	8
Ryan Cooper Jr.	37	2	1	1	7
Jermod McCoy	31	1	0	1	7

Notre Dame's OC Gerad Parker

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)	191	301	64%	2689	24	8	8.9
Steven Angeli	34	44	77%	504	7	1	11.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Audric Estime	210	1341	18	6.4	80
Jeremiyah Love	71	385	1	5.4	36
Jadarian Price	47	272	3	5.8	54
Gi'Bran Payne	45	168	2	3.7	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Tyree	26	484	3	18.6	76
Mitchell Evans	29	422	1	14.6	36
Rico Flores	27	392	1	14.5	60
Jordan Faison	19	322	4	16.9	55

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

Notre Dame's DC Al Golden

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
JD Bertrand	76	8	3	7	5
Howard Cross III	65	7	2	4	2
Jack Kiser	52	1	1	3	1
Xavier Watts	47	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)	46	10	5	8	1
Jordan Botelho	29	5	4	3	0
Marist Liufau	42	6	3	2	1
Nana Osafo-Mensah	20	6	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Benjamin Morrison	30	4	0	0	9
JD Bertrand	76	8	3	7	5
Cam Hart	19	2	0	0	4