Oregon State at Notre Dame - 2023 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo Oregon State Beavers vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish(#10)Notre Dame logo
Friday, December 29th 2023 (2:00 PM EST)
Notre Dame -5.5 (40.5) (210)  Open: -11.0 | 45.5
Notre Dame 40 - Oregon State: 8  (Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl)

 
Beavers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (29 - 31)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (31 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#31)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Notre Dame -6.5  (SP+ ND -4)

Projected Score: ORST: 20 - ND: 27 (47)
ND Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
ORST Travel: 1863 miles, 3 hrs behind
Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 39 - 16 (44 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Oregon State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Oregon State at San José State-14.056.5W 42 - 17OY
Sat 9/9 Oregon State vs UC Davis-24.057.0W 55 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Oregon State vs San Diego State-24.548.5W 26 - 9UN
Sat 9/23 Oregon State at Washington State-3.058.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 9/29 Oregon State vs Utah-4.043.0W 21 - 7UY
Sat 10/7 Oregon State at California-7.551.0W 52 - 40OY
Sat 10/14 Oregon State vs UCLA-3.553.5W 36 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Oregon State at Arizona-3.057.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Oregon State at Colorado-13.060.5W 26 - 19UN
Sat 11/11 Oregon State vs Stanford-21.551.5W 62 - 17OY
Sat 11/18 Oregon State vs Washington-1.562.5L 20 - 22UN
Fri 11/24 Oregon State at Oregon+14.061.5L 7 - 31UN
Fri 12/29 Oregon State vs Notre Dame+5.540.5L 8 - 40ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-20.549.0W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/2 Notre Dame vs Tennessee State-48.555.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/9 Notre Dame at NC State-7.049.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 9/16 Notre Dame vs Central Michigan-34.551.5W 41 - 17ON
Sat 9/23 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+3.055.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 Notre Dame at Duke-5.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 10/7 Notre Dame at Louisville-6.553.0L 20 - 33UN
Sat 10/14 Notre Dame vs USC-3.061.0W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh-21.045.5W 58 - 7OY
Sat 11/4 Notre Dame at Clemson-3.044.5L 23 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Notre Dame vs Wake Forest-22.547.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 11/25 Notre Dame at Stanford-26.050.5W 56 - 23OY
Fri 12/29 Notre Dame vs Oregon State-5.540.5W 40 - 8OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#13 (.32)48% (14)31.852% (6)3.24 (43)16745% (39)2424.78 (11)#39 (.14)44% (91)22.946% (102)43% (81)3.42 (37)50.111.5
ND#8 (.35)49% (9)39.251% (9)3.37 (15)18648% (19)2474.87 (7)#6 (.04)35% (7)15.937% (21)33% (3)2.97 (11)48.21.31.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#87 (.16)44% (59)47% (25)3.34 (20)18939% (100)2013.87 (75)#117 (.27)48% (125)50% (126)45% (112)4.35 (117)45.71.31
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1331.83148.1%4.781214091672424.952%47%52%45%14%.32
ND Defense1315.911.834.6%2.971.8 - - - - - 50%49%37%33%18%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1322.928.743.8%3.421.5 - - - - - 46%53%46%43%18%.14
ND Offense1339.243.749.3%4.871.3214331862475.352%47%51%48%11%.35

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1330:3921.439%57%5.550.111.55.52.7229.7
Notre Dame1330:4820.945%59%5.448.21.31.84.81.9429.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1352% (51)52% (6)34.2167.14.926 (30).23 (26)3.24 (43)73% (79)9% (43)0.97 (85)
ND Defense1350% (61)37% (21) - - - - .07 (29)2.85 (26)67% (34)11% (50)1.05 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1346% (20)46% (102) - - - - .09 (35)2.9 (36)84% (122)10% (61)0.84 (10)
ND Offense1352% (45)51% (9)35.2186.35.328 (25).23 (27)3.37 (15)72% (83)7% (10)0.97 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1347% (82)45% (39)17.129.2242.28.314.226 (31)8 (30).44 (21)1.8 (17)32% (77)37% (17).56 (9)6% (48)2.2 (24)
ND Defense1349% (67)33% (3) - - - - - - 16 (9).04 (2)1.5 (40)36% (14)25% (14).23 (26)7% (27)1.9 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1353% (114)43% (81) - - - - - - 12 (37).26 (60)1.6 (61)33% (54)33% (111).3 (59)7% (22)2 (46)
ND Offense1347% (85)48% (19)17.527246.59.114.131 (14)9 (40).51 (8)1.8 (16)28% (10)37% (19).53 (14)4% (11)2.1 (60)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: 11.36  #17
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 25.78  #10
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 7.19  #39
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #66
Oregon State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.70 - 4.30
Oregon State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.7  #17
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5  #22
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #32

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 11.36   Notre Dame: 19.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: 14.7   Notre Dame: 19.1




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 19.415  #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62  #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24  #12
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 67  #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1  #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8  #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.7

Oregon State's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 27
Oregon State 20


Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 27
Oregon State 22

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 34
Oregon State 23

Total Points: 57
Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 39.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202312/29Notre Dame40Oregon State8Notre Dame -5.5Notre Dame40.5Over
200412/28Oregon State38Notre Dame21
200012/31Oregon State41Notre Dame9
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame111 Overs
Oregon State200 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 10 - 00 - 1

Oregon State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Sun Bowl Oregon State vs Notre Dame+5.540.5L 8 - 40
2022Vegas Bowl Oregon State vs Florida-7.552.0W 30 - 3
2021La Bowl Oregon State vs Utah State-7.068.0L 13 - 24
Notre Dame Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Sun Bowl Notre Dame vs Oregon State-5.540.5W 40 - 8
2022Gator Bowl Notre Dame vs South Carolina-5.050.5W 45 - 38
2021Fiesta Bowl Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State+1.545.5L 35 - 37
2020CFP Semifinal Notre Dame vs Alabama+20.066.0L 14 - 31
2019World Bowl Notre Dame vs Iowa State-4.055.0W 33 - 9
2018CFP Semifinal Notre Dame vs Clemson+10.558.0L 3 - 30
2017Citrus Bowl Notre Dame vs LSU+2.052.0W 21 - 17
  
(#17) ORST at (#6) ND
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTND
Power RatePwr #17 #6
SP+SP+ #17 #9
Perf GradeGrade #19 #2
OffenseOff #12 #5
DefenseDef #58 #3
Spec TeamsST #57 #2
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #66 #9
Oregon State on Offense
CategoryCat
ORST OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #12 #3
SuccessSuc #14 #7
ExplosiveExp #54 #57
PPAPPA #13 #6
PowerPwr #10 #12
SP+SP+ #22 #11
Pts POPPO #11 #11
HavocHav #42 #32
Oregon State Run Game
CategoryCat
ORST OffND Def
Run GameRun #29 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #6 #21
Run ExplRExp #85 #92
PPAExp #26 #29
Run BlockR Blk #2 -
OL YdsOLY #43 #26
Stuff RateStuff #97 #18
TackleTak -  #38
Oregon State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ORST OffND Def
Pass GamePass #43 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #3
Pass ExplPExl #17 #40
PPAExp #21 #2
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #95 #8
F7 HavocF7 #43 #50
DB HavocDB #48 #27
Notre Dame on Offense
CategoryCatND OffORST Def
Perf GradePerf #5 #58
SuccessSuc #9 #91
ExplosiveExp #44 #36
PPAPPA #8 #39
PowerPwr #11 #39
SP+SP+ #17 #32
Pts POPPO #7 #37
HavocHav #7 #38
Notre Dame Run Game
CategoryCat
ND OffORST Def
Run GameRun #15 #52
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #102
Run ExplRExp #86 #10
PPAExp #27 #35
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #15 #36
Stuff RateStuff #36 #58
TackleTak -  #136
Notre Dame Pass Game
CategoryCatND OffORST Def
Pass GamePass #17 #65
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #81
Pass ExplPExl #16 #61
PPAExp #8 #60
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25 #105
F7 HavocF7 #10 #61
DB HavocDB #11 #22
Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

ORST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Bowl Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 56°
Rematch from Week 1
Notre Dame -5.5 (40.5)
Notre Dame won vs Oregon State this year (40-8)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Oregon State in 2023 (40-8)

  
ORST's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)18031557%26382178.4
Aidan Chiles243569%309408.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez194118596.164
Deshaun Fenwick9651555.438
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)6821963.226
Silas Bolden98429.345
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Silas Bolden54746513.850
Anthony Gould44718216.375
Jack Velling29438815.141
Jesiah Irish18302116.838

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold1067230
Kitan Oladapo733117
Akili Arnold622126
Calvin Hart Jr.617410
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Chatfield Jr.28101042
John McCartan479542
Calvin Hart Jr.617410
Joe Golden424420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Robinson331108
Ryan Cooper Jr.372117
Jermod McCoy311017

ND's OC Gerad Parker (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)19130164%26892488.9
Steven Angeli344477%5047111.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Audric Estime2101341186.480
Jeremiyah Love7138515.436
Jadarian Price4727235.854
Gi'Bran Payne4516823.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Tyree26484318.676
Mitchell Evans29422114.636
Rico Flores27392114.560
Jordan Faison19322416.955

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JD Bertrand768375
Howard Cross III657242
Jack Kiser521131
Xavier Watts473103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)4610581
Jordan Botelho295430
Marist Liufau426321
Nana Osafo-Mensah206320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Benjamin Morrison304009
JD Bertrand768375
Cam Hart192004