Ball State at Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview

Ball State Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Kentucky -25 (49.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Kentucky 44 - Ball State: 14

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Neu (34 - 50)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Kentucky -20.5 (SP+ UK -24)
Projected Score: BALL: 14 - UK: 35 (49)
UK Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
BALL Travel: 159 miles

Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ball State at Kentucky	+25.0	49.0	L 14 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/9	Ball State at Georgia	+42.0	52.5	L 3 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ball State vs Indiana State	-26.0	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ball State vs Georgia Southern	+6.0	60.0	L 3 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ball State at Western Michigan	+1.5	50.0	L 24 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/7	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	+2.5	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Ball State vs Toledo	+17.5	48.5	L 6 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+5.0	42.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Ball State at Bowling Green	+4.5	39.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+9.5	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ball State vs Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+3.5	34.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kentucky vs Ball State	-25.0	49.0	W 44 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-35.0	62.5	W 28 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	Kentucky vs Akron	-25.0	48.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-13.5	50.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Kentucky vs Florida	-1.0	44.0	W 33 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Kentucky at Georgia	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/14	Kentucky vs Missouri	-1.5	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+4.0	50.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Kentucky at Mississippi State	-5.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Kentucky vs Alabama	+10.0	45.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Kentucky at South Carolina	+2.5	52.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kentucky at Louisville	+7.5	47.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Kentucky vs Clemson	+3.5	44.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	.11	40%	15.8	41%	3.22	158	40%	228	3.7	.16	43%	29.8	45%	41%	3.56	57.6	1.8	1.4
UK	.11	40%	23	43%	3	116	37%	208	3.23	.07	37%	26.4	38%	37%	3.15	39.5	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	15.8	9.7	40.1%	3.7	1.8	21	386	158	228	4.5	43%	56%	41%	40%	19%	.11
UK Defense	13	26.4	22.6	37.2%	3.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	37%	14%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	29.8	35.7	43%	3.56	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	45%	41%	17%	.16
UK Offense	13	23	31.7	39.8%	3.23	1.5	18	325	116	208	3.3	51%	48%	43%	37%	18%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	27:59	21.3	36%	32%	6.1	57.6	1.8	1.4	5.4	2.1	0	29.3
Kentucky	13	33:08	17.6	34%	62%	5.7	39.5	1.5	1.5	4	1.5	2	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	43%	41%	34.8	157.8	4.5	14	.09	3.22	76%	7%	0.88
UK Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.91	62%	8%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	55%	45%	-	-	-	-	.13	3.26	71%	9%	0.95
UK Offense	13	51%	43%	35.6	116.2	3.3	9	.05	3	65%	13%	0.78

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	56%	40%	23.9	40.1	228.2	5.7	9.5	18	14	.18	1.3	30%	31%	.26	12%	1.9
UK Defense	13	46%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.14	1.5	34%	26%	.18	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	45%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.23	1.4	32%	30%	.28	8%	1.9
UK Offense	13	48%	37%	17.2	26.8	208.5	7.8	12.1	21	13	.23	1.9	34%	28%	.22	6%	2

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -8.44 #112
Ball State's Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Ball State's Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
2023 Talent Rating: 403.54 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Ball State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Ball State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -8.44 Kentucky: 8.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -14.9 Kentucky: 9.3

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 740.54 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 35
Ball State 14

Projected Total Points: 49

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Kentucky	44	Ball State	14	Kentucky -25	Kentucky	49.0	Over
2001	09/08	Kentucky	28	Ball State	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	2	1	1 Overs
Ball State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#112) BALL at (#43) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	UK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#112	#43
SP+SP+	#116	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#39
OffenseOff	#101	#65
DefenseDef	#119	#30
Spec TeamsST	#132	#60
TalentTal	#111	#31
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#20

Ball State Injury Report

Kentucky Injury Report

Ball State on Offense


CategoryCat	BALL Off	UK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#98	#72
SP+SP+	#131	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ball State Run Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#52	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#45

Ball State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#119	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#23	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	BALL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#119
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#60	#87
SP+SP+	#44	#61
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#19	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#106

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#103
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Kentucky -25.0 (49.0)
Kentucky won vs Ball State this year (44-14)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Ball State in 2023 (44-14)

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kiael Kelly	66	124	53%	577	2	3	4.7
Layne Hatcher (Tr)	65	98	66%	583	4	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	227	1043	4	4.6	39
Kiael Kelly	134	723	7	5.4	55
Vaughn Pemberton	23	139	1	6.0	45
Rico Barfield	25	96	1	3.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Qian Magwood	41	358	1	8.7	32
Ahmad Edwards	31	354	1	11.4	57
Tanner Koziol	34	295	3	8.7	26
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	19	164	0	8.6	26

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Tyler Stockton (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1
Mikhari Sibblis (Tr)	37	6	4	1	0
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Tyler Potts	27	3	1	0	6
Thailand Baldwin	30	0	0	1	5

UK's OC Liam Coen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devin Leary (Tr)	209	371	56%	2746	25	12	7.4
Kaiya Sheron	2	4	50%	5	0	0	1.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Mahn Davis	199	1129	14	5.7	75
Ramon Jefferson	28	184	0	6.6	74
Barion Brown	12	147	1	12.3	26
Demie Sumo	20	139	1	7.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	42	636	6	15.1	58
Tayvion Robinson	41	552	4	13.5	56
Barion Brown	43	539	4	12.5	60
Re'Mahn Davis	33	323	7	9.8	58

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Zion Childress	58	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deone Walker	55	13	8	8	2
J.J. Weaver	44	8	6	2	2
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Octavious Oxendine	19	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Andru Phillips	48	2	0	0	5
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4