Missouri at Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Kentucky -1.5 (50.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Missouri 38 - Kentucky: 21 (SEC)

Tigers (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (18 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UK is playing their 7th straight game
MIZ is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -6 (SP+ MIZ -8.5)
Projected Score: MIZ: 27 - UK: 21 (49)
UK Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
MIZ Travel: 428 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIZ Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Missouri vs South Dakota	-27.0	44.5	W 35 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/9	Missouri vs Middle Tennessee	-21.0	47.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/16	Missouri vs Kansas State	+3.5	48.0	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Missouri vs Memphis	-6.5	52.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Missouri at Vanderbilt	-14.0	53.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Missouri vs LSU	+6.0	63.5	L 39 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/14	Missouri at Kentucky	+1.5	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Missouri vs South Carolina	-7.5	57.5	W 34 - 12	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Missouri at Georgia	+15.0	56.5	L 21 - 30	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Missouri vs Tennessee	+1.0	58.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Missouri vs Florida	-12.5	56.5	W 33 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Missouri at Arkansas	-9.5	53.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Missouri vs Ohio State	+4.0	51.0	W 14 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kentucky vs Ball State	-25.0	49.0	W 44 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-35.0	62.5	W 28 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	Kentucky vs Akron	-25.0	48.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-13.5	50.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Kentucky vs Florida	-1.0	44.0	W 33 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Kentucky at Georgia	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/14	Kentucky vs Missouri	-1.5	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+4.0	50.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Kentucky at Mississippi State	-5.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Kentucky vs Alabama	+10.0	45.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Kentucky at South Carolina	+2.5	52.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kentucky at Louisville	+7.5	47.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Kentucky vs Clemson	+3.5	44.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	.16	41%	30.2	41%	2.89	156	41%	213	4.26	.15	38%	18.9	37%	39%	3.8	63.7	1.5	1.8
UK	.11	40%	23	43%	3	116	37%	208	3.23	.07	37%	26.4	38%	37%	3.15	39.5	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Offense	13	30.2	17.5	40.6%	4.26	1.5	19	370	156	213	4.1	51%	48%	41%	41%	17%	.16
UK Defense	13	26.4	22.6	37.2%	3.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	37%	14%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Defense	13	18.9	17	37.7%	3.8	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	37%	39%	21%	.15
UK Offense	13	23	31.7	39.8%	3.23	1.5	18	325	116	208	3.3	51%	48%	43%	37%	18%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri	13	31:05	18.5	40%	50%	7.8	63.7	1.5	1.8	7	2.7	3	28.9
Kentucky	13	33:08	17.6	34%	62%	5.7	39.5	1.5	1.5	4	1.5	2	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Offense	13	51%	41%	37.9	156.5	4.1	21	.11	2.89	70%	13%	1
UK Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.91	62%	8%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Defense	13	49%	37%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.72	67%	14%	1.14
UK Offense	13	51%	43%	35.6	116.2	3.3	9	.05	3	65%	13%	0.78

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Offense	13	48%	41%	19	30.1	213.2	7.1	11.2	13	9	.25	1.6	34%	33%	.34	4%	2
UK Defense	13	46%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.14	1.5	34%	26%	.18	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Defense	13	51%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.22	1.6	34%	28%	.22	8%	2
UK Offense	13	48%	37%	17.2	26.8	208.5	7.8	12.1	21	13	.23	1.9	34%	28%	.22	6%	2

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 12.43 #14
Missouri's Offense Rating: 24.36 #15
Missouri's Defense Rating: 7.05 #38
2023 Talent Rating: 755.40 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 23% #30
Missouri's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Missouri's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.8 #12
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 12.43 Kentucky: 8.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 17.8 Kentucky: 9.3

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 740.54 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Missouri's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri 27
Kentucky 21

Projected Total Points: 49

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	Kentucky	21	Missouri	38	Kentucky -1.5	Missouri	50.5	Over
2022	11/05	Missouri	17	Kentucky	21	Missouri -1	Kentucky	40.0	Under
2021	09/11	Kentucky	35	Missouri	28	Kentucky -5.5	Kentucky	56.5	Over
2020	10/24	Missouri	20	Kentucky	10	Kentucky -3.5	Missouri	47.0	Under
2019	10/26	Kentucky	29	Missouri	7	Missouri -10	Kentucky	43.5	Under
2018	10/27	Missouri	14	Kentucky	16	Missouri -7.5	Kentucky	54.5	Under
2017	10/07	Kentucky	40	Missouri	34	Kentucky -8.5	Missouri	59.5	Over
2016	10/29	Missouri	21	Kentucky	35	Missouri -4.5	Kentucky	69.0	Under
2015	09/26	Kentucky	21	Missouri	13	Kentucky -2.5	Kentucky	44.0	Under
2014	11/01	Missouri	20	Kentucky	10	Missouri -7	Missouri	0
2013	11/09	Kentucky	17	Missouri	48	Missouri -14	Missouri	0
2012	10/27	Missouri	33	Kentucky	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	7	6	3 Overs
Missouri	5	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	5 - 6	3 - 5	2 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 7	6 - 5	1 - 2	5 - 3

(#14) MIZ at (#43) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIZ	UK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#14	#43
SP+SP+	#12	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#19	#39
OffenseOff	#14	#65
DefenseDef	#49	#30
Spec TeamsST	#67	#60
TalentTal	#24	#31
Blue ChipsBC%	#30	#20

Missouri Injury Report

Kentucky Injury Report

Missouri on Offense


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#14	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#15	#72
SP+SP+	#11	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Missouri Run Game


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#53	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#5	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#45

Missouri Pass Game


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#36	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	MIZ Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#49
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#60	#38
SP+SP+	#44	#23
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#19	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#72

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#35
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Kentucky -1.5 (50.5)
Missouri won at Kentucky this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Kentucky in 2023 (38-21)

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	243	367	66%	3302	21	6	9.0
Sam Horn	3	6	50%	54	1	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cody Schrader	276	1617	14	5.9	52
Brady Cook	113	319	8	2.8	25
Nathaniel Peat	76	317	3	4.2	19
Luther Burden III	8	38	0	4.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luther Burden III	85	1205	9	14.2	56
Theo Wease	48	661	6	13.8	77
Mookie Cooper	36	447	0	12.4	41
Marquis Johnson	13	383	3	29.5	76

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylon Carlies	64	5	2	2	4
Joseph Charleston	60	1	0	3	4
Ty'Ron Hopper	55	6	3	6	3
Charles Hicks	53	11	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Robinson	43	14	9	6	0
Johnny Walker	43	11	6	9	0
Nyles Gaddy (Tr)	22	4	4	3	0
Ty'Ron Hopper	55	6	3	6	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kris Abrams-Draine	50	3	0	1	12
Daylan Carnell	51	6	3	8	7
Jaylon Carlies	64	5	2	2	4

UK's OC Liam Coen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devin Leary (Tr)	209	371	56%	2746	25	12	7.4
Kaiya Sheron	2	4	50%	5	0	0	1.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Mahn Davis	199	1129	14	5.7	75
Ramon Jefferson	28	184	0	6.6	74
Barion Brown	12	147	1	12.3	26
Demie Sumo	20	139	1	7.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	42	636	6	15.1	58
Tayvion Robinson	41	552	4	13.5	56
Barion Brown	43	539	4	12.5	60
Re'Mahn Davis	33	323	7	9.8	58

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Zion Childress	58	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deone Walker	55	13	8	8	2
J.J. Weaver	44	8	6	2	2
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Octavious Oxendine	19	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Andru Phillips	48	2	0	0	5
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4