Florida at Kentucky Game Matchup
Florida logo Florida Gators at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Kentucky -1 (44.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Kentucky 33 - Florida: 14  (SEC)

 
Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UK is playing their 5th straight game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Kentucky -2   (SP+ UK -3)
Projected Score: FLA: 22 - UK: 24 (47)
UK Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
FLA Travel: 592 miles
Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 21 - 22 (22 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Florida at Utah+5.544.5L 11 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Florida vs McNeese-48.555.5W 49 - 7ON
Sat 9/16 Florida vs Tennessee+5.057.0W 29 - 16UY
Sat 9/23 Florida vs Charlotte-28.048.5W 22 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Florida at Kentucky+1.044.0L 14 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Florida vs Vanderbilt-18.051.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 10/14 Florida at South Carolina-1.050.0W 41 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Florida vs Georgia+14.050.0L 20 - 43ON
Sat 11/4 Florida vs Arkansas-4.550.0L 36 - 39ON
Sat 11/11 Florida at LSU+14.068.5L 35 - 52ON
Sat 11/18 Florida at Missouri+12.556.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 11/25 Florida vs Florida State+6.051.0L 15 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kentucky vs Ball State-25.049.0W 44 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-35.062.5W 28 - 17UN
Sat 9/16 Kentucky vs Akron-25.048.5W 35 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Kentucky at Vanderbilt-13.550.0W 45 - 28OY
Sat 9/30 Kentucky vs Florida-1.044.0W 33 - 14OY
Sat 10/7 Kentucky at Georgia+14.547.0L 13 - 51ON
Sat 10/14 Kentucky vs Missouri-1.550.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Kentucky vs Tennessee+4.050.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 11/4 Kentucky at Mississippi State-5.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/11 Kentucky vs Alabama+10.045.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/18 Kentucky at South Carolina+2.552.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/25 Kentucky at Louisville+7.547.5W 38 - 31OY
Fri 12/29 Kentucky vs Clemson+3.544.5L 35 - 38OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA.2640%28.341%3.1720039%2243.65.2345%23.147%44%4.3650.11.12
UK.1140%20.643%311637%2083.23.0737%22.138%37%3.1539.51.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1328.327.539.8%3.651.1204242002245.554%46%41%39%13%.26
UK Defense1322.117.637.2%3.151.5 - - - - - 54%46%38%37%14%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense1323.127.845.3%4.362 - - - - - 55%44%47%44%14%.23
UK Offense1320.621.939.8%3.231.5183251162083.351%48%43%37%18%.11

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1329:022040%47%6.850.11.125.41.8228.3
Kentucky1333:0817.634%62%5.739.51.51.541.5227.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1354%41%36.3200.25.529.263.1780%8%1.29
UK Defense1354%38% - - - - .062.9162%8%1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1355%47% - - - - .213.1773%10%1.05
UK Offense1351%43%35.6116.23.39.05365%13%0.78

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1346%39%15.328.2223.8814.6189.31.835%30%.435%2.3
UK Defense1346%37% - - - - - - 10.141.534%26%.186%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1344%44% - - - - - - 9.281.631%39%.464%2
UK Offense1348%37%17.226.8208.57.812.12113.231.934%28%.226%2

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 8.25 #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
2023 Talent Rating: 984.00 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 8.25   Kentucky: 8.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 5.9   Kentucky: 9.3




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 826.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Kentucky 24
Florida 22

Projected Total Points: 47
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 20.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Florida48Kentucky20FloridaKentucky -2.5Florida42.5Over
202309/30Kentucky33Florida14KentuckyKentucky -1Kentucky44.0Over
202209/10Florida16Kentucky26KentuckyFlorida -6Kentucky53.0Under
202110/02Kentucky20Florida13KentuckyFlorida -7.5Kentucky56.5Under
202011/28Florida34Kentucky10FloridaFlorida -23.5Florida60.5Under
201909/14Kentucky21Florida29FloridaFlorida -10Kentucky46.5Over
201809/08Florida16Kentucky27KentuckyFlorida -13.5Kentucky52.5Under
201709/23Kentucky27Florida28FloridaFlorida -3Kentucky44.0Over
201609/10Florida45Kentucky7FloridaFlorida -16.5Florida48.5Over
201509/19Kentucky9Florida14FloridaFlorida -4.5Florida52.5Under
201409/13Florida36Kentucky30FloridaFlorida -17Kentucky0
201309/28Kentucky7Florida24FloridaFlorida -12.5Florida0
201209/22Florida38Kentucky0Florida
201109/24Kentucky10Florida48Florida
201009/25Florida48Kentucky14Florida
200909/26Kentucky7Florida41Florida
200810/25Florida63Kentucky5Florida
200710/20Kentucky37Florida45Florida
200609/23Florida26Kentucky7Florida
200509/24Kentucky28Florida49Florida
200409/25Florida20Kentucky3Florida
200309/27Kentucky21Florida24Florida
200209/28Florida41Kentucky34Florida
200109/22Kentucky10Florida44Florida
200009/22Florida59Kentucky31Florida
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky475 Overs
Florida2155 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 127 - 53 - 34 - 2
Road Teams12 - 135 - 72 - 43 - 3

(#26) Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.25 #26
Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64
Talent Rating: 984.00 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #10
Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50

Team Profile






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Florida     Ratings Matchup     Kentucky
Power #26
#43
Off #19
#60
Def #90
#72
Talent #14
#25
SP+ #42
#31
SP+ Off #42
#44
SP+ Def #64
#33

Rematch from Week 5
Kentucky -1.0 (44.0)
Kentucky won vs Florida this year (33-14)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Kentucky last year (48-20)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2023 (33-14)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2022 (26-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77° - Wind: 8 mph


Team Information
Injuries: FLA | UK
Depth Chart: FLA | UK
Rosters: FLA | UK
(#43) Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33
Talent Rating: 826.00 #25
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30

Team Profile






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Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)729477%791628.4
Max Brown439346%561366.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Trevor Etienne12260995.048
Montrell Johnson10059365.971
Max Brown338502.620
Graham Mertz (Tr)185613.116
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Douglas55765613.957
Trevor Etienne3219406.114
Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman1512518.333
Montrell Johnson136404.912

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Austin Armstrong
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shemar James644223
Scooby Williams438024
Chris McClellan396332
CamRon Jackson375212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princely Umanmielen371411130
Chris McClellan396332
Shemar James644223
CamRon Jackson375212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Scooby Williams438024
Jason Marshall Jr.202034
Shemar James644223

Kentucky's OC Liam Coen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Deuce Hogan61833%31021.7
Wilson Berry010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demie Sumo12958654.522
Deuce Hogan4-30-0.813
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Demie Sumo2015407.718
Shamar Porter6113318.839
Izayah Cummings333011.019
Ardell Banks220010.013

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Childress556162
Deone Walker375202
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Elijah Reed322014
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaten Wade207410
J.J. Weaver317441
Tre'Vonn Rybka345321
Octavious Oxendine205330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Reed322014
Maxwell Hairston191104
D'Eryk Jackson324103