Florida at Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Kentucky -1 (44.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Kentucky 33 - Florida: 14 (SEC)

Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (26 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UK is playing their 5th straight game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Kentucky -2 (SP+ UK -3)
Projected Score: FLA: 23 - UK: 25 (48)
UK Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
FLA Travel: 592 miles

Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FLA Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Florida at Utah	+5.5	44.5	L 11 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Florida vs McNeese	-48.5	55.5	W 49 - 7	O	N
Sat 9/16	Florida vs Tennessee	+5.0	57.0	W 29 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Florida vs Charlotte	-28.0	48.5	W 22 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/30	Florida at Kentucky	+1.0	44.0	L 14 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Florida vs Vanderbilt	-18.0	51.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Florida at South Carolina	-1.0	50.0	W 41 - 39	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Florida vs Georgia	+14.0	50.0	L 20 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/4	Florida vs Arkansas	-4.5	50.0	L 36 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/11	Florida at LSU	+14.0	68.5	L 35 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Florida at Missouri	+12.5	56.5	L 31 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Florida vs Florida State	+6.0	51.0	L 15 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kentucky vs Ball State	-25.0	49.0	W 44 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-35.0	62.5	W 28 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	Kentucky vs Akron	-25.0	48.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-13.5	50.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Kentucky vs Florida	-1.0	44.0	W 33 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Kentucky at Georgia	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/14	Kentucky vs Missouri	-1.5	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+4.0	50.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Kentucky at Mississippi State	-5.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Kentucky vs Alabama	+10.0	45.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Kentucky at South Carolina	+2.5	52.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kentucky at Louisville	+7.5	47.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Kentucky vs Clemson	+3.5	44.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	#39 (.27)	44% (47)	28.4	43% (63)	3.11 (69)	152	45% (36)	257	4.7 (14)	#106 (.24)	38% (26)	27.6	36% (15)	40% (45)	4.08 (93)	49.6	1	0.6
UK	#49 (.22)	40% (93)	29.1	41% (88)	2.79 (118)	128	40% (83)	212	4.46 (23)	#50 (.16)	43% (87)	25.8	42% (56)	45% (116)	3.95 (84)	50.8	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	#72 (.18)	43% (64)		45% (54)	3.04 (66)	164	41% (82)	226	4.17 (46)	#53 (.14)	44% (95)		49% (118)	39% (44)	3.12 (14)	54	1.4	1.9
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)		47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)		49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Offense	12	28.4	26.4	43.9%	4.7	1	22	409	152	257	4.3	48%	52%	43%	45%	16%	.27
UK Defense	13	25.8	24	43.3%	3.95	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	45%	14%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Defense	12	27.6	36.2	37.9%	4.08	0.6	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	36%	40%	16%	.24
UK Offense	13	29.1	29.9	40%	4.46	1.5	17	339	128	212	4.9	43%	55%	41%	40%	18%	.22

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida	12	33:06	21.6	37%	41%	6.6	49.6	1	0.6	4.9	1.8	0	26.4
Kentucky	13	27:34	16.9	38%	20%	6.1	50.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2	6	29.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Offense	12	48% (88)	43% (63)	35.2	151.6	4.3	21 (54)	.17 (59)	3.11 (69)	72% (85)	12% (114)	1 (64)
UK Defense	13	48% (46)	42% (56)	-	-	-	-	.1 (40)	2.87 (29)	70% (48)	10% (75)	0.87 (18)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Defense	12	50% (71)	36% (15)	-	-	-	-	.16 (84)	2.97 (44)	59% (8)	10% (62)	1.28 (132)
UK Offense	13	43% (108)	41% (88)	26.1	127.7	4.9	18 (77)	.15 (71)	2.79 (118)	68% (106)	11% (79)	1.12 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Offense	12	52% (40)	45% (36)	23.4	32.4	257.2	7.9	11	20 (70)	5 (6)	.37 (33)	1.6 (76)	32% (79)	30% (74)	.43 (38)	4% (13)	2.1 (48)
UK Defense	13	51% (92)	45% (116)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.23 (45)	1.4 (11)	31% (76)	30% (70)	.39 (104)	5% (114)	2.1 (75)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Defense	12	49% (71)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	-	-	3 (132)	.35 (107)	1.9 (129)	34% (39)	28% (37)	.34 (82)	6% (82)	2.3 (120)
UK Offense	13	55% (26)	40% (83)	16.2	28.8	211.6	7.4	13	25 (37)	11 (68)	.32 (54)	1.7 (25)	35% (114)	28% (88)	.31 (77)	8% (113)	2.2 (19)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 8.25 #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 65% #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 8.25 Kentucky: 8.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 5.9 Kentucky: 9.3

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.2

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 25
Florida 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Kentucky 26
Florida 18

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Kentucky 31
Florida 26

Total Points: 57

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.9
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Kentucky	38	Florida	7	Florida -4.5	Kentucky	44.5	Over
2024	10/19	Florida	48	Kentucky	20	Kentucky -2.5	Florida	42.5	Over
2023	09/30	Kentucky	33	Florida	14	Kentucky -1	Kentucky	44.0	Over
2022	09/10	Florida	16	Kentucky	26	Florida -6	Kentucky	53.0	Under
2021	10/02	Kentucky	20	Florida	13	Florida -7.5	Kentucky	56.5	Under
2020	11/28	Florida	34	Kentucky	10	Florida -23.5	Florida	60.5	Under
2019	09/14	Kentucky	21	Florida	29	Florida -10	Kentucky	46.5	Over
2018	09/08	Florida	16	Kentucky	27	Florida -13.5	Kentucky	52.5	Under
2017	09/23	Kentucky	27	Florida	28	Florida -3	Kentucky	44.0	Over
2016	09/10	Florida	45	Kentucky	7	Florida -16.5	Florida	48.5	Over
2015	09/19	Kentucky	9	Florida	14	Florida -4.5	Florida	52.5	Under
2014	09/13	Florida	36	Kentucky	30	Florida -17	Kentucky	0
2013	09/28	Kentucky	7	Florida	24	Florida -12.5	Florida	0
2012	09/22	Florida	38	Kentucky	0
2011	09/24	Kentucky	10	Florida	48
2010	09/25	Florida	48	Kentucky	14
2009	09/26	Kentucky	7	Florida	41
2008	10/25	Florida	63	Kentucky	5
2007	10/20	Kentucky	37	Florida	45
2006	09/23	Florida	26	Kentucky	7
2005	09/24	Kentucky	28	Florida	49
2004	09/25	Florida	20	Kentucky	3
2003	09/27	Kentucky	21	Florida	24
2002	09/28	Florida	41	Kentucky	34
2001	09/22	Kentucky	10	Florida	44
2000	09/22	Florida	59	Kentucky	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	5	8	6 Overs
Florida	21	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 12	8 - 5	3 - 3	5 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 14	5 - 8	2 - 5	3 - 3

(#26) FLA at (#43) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FLA	UK
Power RatePwr	#26	#43
SP+SP+	#42	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#47	#39
OffenseOff	#37	#65
DefenseDef	#83	#30
Spec TeamsST	#105	#60
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#10	#20

Florida Injury Report

Kentucky Injury Report

Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
Perf GradePerf	#37	#30
SuccessSuc	#47	#87
ExplosiveExp	#61	#10
PPAPPA	#39	#50
PowerPwr	#19	#72
SP+SP+	#42	#33
Pts POPPO	#14	#84
HavocHav	#78	#111

Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#64	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	#63	#56
Run ExplRExp	#64	#18
PPAExp	#59	#40
Run BlockR Blk	#26	-
OL YdsOLY	#69	#29
Stuff RateStuff	#92	#26
TackleTak	-	#45

Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#55	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	#36	#116
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#11
PPAExp	#33	#45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#55
F7 HavocF7	#114	#75
DB HavocDB	#13	#114

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
Perf GradePerf	#65	#83
SuccessSuc	#93	#26
ExplosiveExp	#4	#133
PPAPPA	#49	#106
PowerPwr	#60	#90
SP+SP+	#44	#64
Pts POPPO	#23	#93
HavocHav	#102	#74

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#19	#54
Run SuccessRSuc	#88	#15
Run ExplRExp	#17	#132
PPAExp	#71	#84
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#118	#44
Stuff RateStuff	#131	#56
TackleTak	-	#115

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#45
Pass ExplPExl	#25	#129
PPAExp	#54	#107
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#64
F7 HavocF7	#79	#62
DB HavocDB	#113	#82

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Kentucky -1.0 (44.0)
Kentucky won vs Florida this year (33-14)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Kentucky last year (48-20)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2023 (33-14)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2022 (26-16)

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)	260	357	73%	2878	20	3	8.1
Max Brown	19	28	68%	192	0	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montrell Johnson	152	817	5	5.4	52
Trevor Etienne	131	753	8	5.7	62
Treyaun Webb	26	163	2	6.3	43
Ricky Pearsall	3	62	2	20.7	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky Pearsall	64	970	4	15.2	61
Eugene Wilson	61	538	6	8.8	30
Arlis Boardingham	26	289	4	11.1	25
Kahleil Jackson	21	251	1	12.0	45

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Castell	59	2	0	0	3
Shemar James	55	6	1	0	0
Scooby Williams	52	4	1	4	0
Jaydon Hill	39	4	2	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Princely Umanmielen	39	11	7	16	0
Derek Wingo	18	4	3	2	1
Jaydon Hill	39	4	2	2	3
Kelby Collins	24	2	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Marshall Jr.	26	3	1	0	11
Jalen Kimber	23	0	0	1	5
Jordan Castell	59	2	0	0	3

UK's OC Liam Coen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devin Leary (Tr)	209	371	56%	2746	25	12	7.4
Kaiya Sheron	2	4	50%	5	0	0	1.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Mahn Davis	199	1129	14	5.7	75
Ramon Jefferson	28	184	0	6.6	74
Barion Brown	12	147	1	12.3	26
Demie Sumo	20	139	1	7.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	42	636	6	15.1	58
Tayvion Robinson	41	552	4	13.5	56
Barion Brown	43	539	4	12.5	60
Re'Mahn Davis	33	323	7	9.8	58

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Zion Childress	58	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deone Walker	55	13	8	8	2
J.J. Weaver	44	8	6	2	2
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Octavious Oxendine	19	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Andru Phillips	48	2	0	0	5
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4