Kentucky at Vanderbilt - 2023 Matchup Preview

Kentucky Wildcats at Vanderbilt Commodores

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Kentucky -13.5 (50.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Kentucky 45 - Vanderbilt: 28 (SEC)

Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (11 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

VAN is playing their 4th straight game
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Kentucky -16.5 (SP+ UK -23)
Projected Score: UK: 35 - VAN: 18 (53)
UK Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
UK Travel: 182 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Commodores (2 - 10) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (9 - 19)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.8 - 9.2 (#130)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UK Players
VAN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kentucky vs Ball State	-25.0	49.0	W 44 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-35.0	62.5	W 28 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	Kentucky vs Akron	-25.0	48.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-13.5	50.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Kentucky vs Florida	-1.0	44.0	W 33 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Kentucky at Georgia	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/14	Kentucky vs Missouri	-1.5	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+4.0	50.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Kentucky at Mississippi State	-5.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Kentucky vs Alabama	+10.0	45.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Kentucky at South Carolina	+2.5	52.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kentucky at Louisville	+7.5	47.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Kentucky vs Clemson	+3.5	44.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i	-17.0	54.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M	-35.0	53.5	W 47 - 13	O	N
Sat 9/9	Vanderbilt at Wake Forest	+9.5	55.0	L 20 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/16	Vanderbilt at UNLV	-4.5	56.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/23	Vanderbilt vs Kentucky	+13.5	50.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Vanderbilt vs Missouri	+14.0	53.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/7	Vanderbilt at Florida	+18.0	51.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/14	Vanderbilt vs Georgia	+32.5	55.0	L 20 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Vanderbilt at Ole Miss	+24.0	62.0	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/4	Vanderbilt vs Auburn	+12.5	50.0	L 15 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/11	Vanderbilt at South Carolina	+13.5	53.5	L 6 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/25	Vanderbilt at Tennessee	+27.0	58.0	L 24 - 48	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK	.11	40%	23	43%	3	116	37%	208	3.23	.07	37%	26.4	38%	37%	3.15	39.5	1.5	1.5
VAN	.16	40%	38.5	40%	2.98	160	42%	187	3.73	.31	45%	22.8	42%	49%	4.14	46.1	1.3	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
VAN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Offense	13	23	10.8	39.8%	3.23	1.5	18	325	116	208	3.3	51%	48%	43%	37%	18%	.11
VAN Defense	12	22.8	21.1	45.5%	4.14	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	42%	49%	15%	.31

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UK Defense	13	26.4	31.8	37.2%	3.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	37%	14%	.07
VAN Offense	12	38.5	44	40.3%	3.73	1.3	18	347	160	187	4.3	56%	43%	40%	42%	18%	.16

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Kentucky	13	33:08	17.6	34%	62%	5.7	39.5	1.5	1.5	4	1.5	2	27.5
Vanderbilt	12	31:36	17.5	37%	38%	5.3	46.1	1.3	1.8	4.7	1.4	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Offense	13	51%	43%	35.6	116.2	3.3	9	.05	3	65%	13%	0.78
VAN Defense	12	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.24	54%	9%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UK Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.91	62%	8%	1
VAN Offense	12	56%	40%	37.1	159.9	4.3	13	.1	2.98	73%	10%	1

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Offense	13	48%	37%	17.2	26.8	208.5	7.8	12.1	21	13	.23	1.9	34%	28%	.22	6%	2
VAN Defense	12	52%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.55	1.7	29%	33%	.49	5%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UK Defense	13	46%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.14	1.5	34%	26%	.18	6%	2.1
VAN Offense	12	43%	42%	16.7	28.8	187.3	6.5	11.2	22	6	.29	1.7	33%	27%	.32	8%	2.3

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.64 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 740.54 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 37% #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 3.64 Vanderbilt: -10.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Kentucky: 9.3 Vanderbilt: -13.7

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -10.105 #122
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 10.08 #122
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 17.21 #124
2023 Talent Rating: 639.88 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #57
Vanderbilt's 2023 Expected Record: 2.80 - 9.20
Vanderbilt's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #113
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #84
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.8
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 35
Vanderbilt 18

Projected Total Points: 53

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.1

Vanderbilt's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Vanderbilt	45	Kentucky	17	Vanderbilt -7	Vanderbilt	53.5	Over
2024	10/12	Kentucky	13	Vanderbilt	20	Kentucky -12.5	Vanderbilt	44.5	Under
2023	09/23	Vanderbilt	28	Kentucky	45	Kentucky -13.5	Kentucky	50.0	Over
2022	11/12	Kentucky	21	Vanderbilt	24	Kentucky -17.0	Vanderbilt	45.5	Under
2021	11/13	Vanderbilt	17	Kentucky	34	Kentucky -21.5	Vanderbilt	52.5	Under
2020	11/14	Kentucky	38	Vanderbilt	35	Kentucky -17.5	Vanderbilt	41.5	Over
2019	11/16	Vanderbilt	14	Kentucky	38	Kentucky -9	Kentucky	43.0	Over
2018	10/20	Kentucky	14	Vanderbilt	7	Kentucky -10.5	Vanderbilt	45.0	Under
2017	11/11	Vanderbilt	21	Kentucky	44	Vanderbilt -2.5	Kentucky	53.0	Over
2016	10/08	Kentucky	20	Vanderbilt	13	Kentucky -2	Kentucky	48.5	Under
2015	11/14	Vanderbilt	21	Kentucky	17	Vanderbilt -2.5	Vanderbilt	41.5	Under
2014	09/27	Kentucky	17	Vanderbilt	7	Kentucky -14	Vanderbilt	0
2013	11/16	Vanderbilt	22	Kentucky	6	Vanderbilt -13.5	Vanderbilt	0
2012	11/03	Kentucky	0	Vanderbilt	40
2011	11/12	Vanderbilt	38	Kentucky	8
2010	11/13	Kentucky	38	Vanderbilt	20
2009	11/14	Vanderbilt	13	Kentucky	24
2008	11/15	Kentucky	24	Vanderbilt	31
2007	11/10	Vanderbilt	20	Kentucky	27
2006	11/11	Kentucky	38	Vanderbilt	26
2005	11/12	Vanderbilt	43	Kentucky	48
2004	11/13	Kentucky	14	Vanderbilt	13
2003	11/15	Vanderbilt	28	Kentucky	17
2001	11/10	Vanderbilt	30	Kentucky	56
2000	11/10	Kentucky	20	Vanderbilt	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Vanderbilt	10	9	5 Overs
Kentucky	15	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	5 - 8	4 - 6	1 - 2
Road Teams	13 - 12	8 - 5	2 - 1	6 - 4

(#43) UK at (#122) VAN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UK	VAN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#43	#122
SP+SP+	#31	#113
Perf GradeGrade	#39	#129
OffenseOff	#65	#116
DefenseDef	#30	#126
Spec TeamsST	#60	#115
TalentTal	#31	#58
Blue ChipsBC%	#20	#57

Kentucky Injury Report

Vanderbilt Injury Report

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	VAN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#126
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#60	#124
SP+SP+	#44	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	#19	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#103

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#121
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#61	#124
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Vanderbilt on Offense


CategoryCat	VAN Off	UK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#122	#72
SP+SP+	#84	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Vanderbilt Run Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#104	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#45

Vanderbilt Pass Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#103	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#122	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Kentucky 13.5 (50.0)
Kentucky won at Vanderbilt this year (45-28)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Kentucky last year (45-17)
Vanderbilt beat Kentucky in 2024 (20-13)
Kentucky beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (45-28)

UK's OC Liam Coen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devin Leary (Tr)	209	371	56%	2746	25	12	7.4
Kaiya Sheron	2	4	50%	5	0	0	1.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Mahn Davis	199	1129	14	5.7	75
Ramon Jefferson	28	184	0	6.6	74
Barion Brown	12	147	1	12.3	26
Demie Sumo	20	139	1	7.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	42	636	6	15.1	58
Tayvion Robinson	41	552	4	13.5	56
Barion Brown	43	539	4	12.5	60
Re'Mahn Davis	33	323	7	9.8	58

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Zion Childress	58	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deone Walker	55	13	8	8	2
J.J. Weaver	44	8	6	2	2
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Octavious Oxendine	19	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Andru Phillips	48	2	0	0	5
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4

VAN's OC Joey Lynch (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann	106	196	54%	1418	12	7	7.2
Ken Seals	106	179	59%	1218	11	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sedrick Alexander	96	370	4	3.9	27
Patrick Smith	79	327	2	4.1	40
Jayden McGowan	19	108	0	5.7	18
Walter Taylor	30	102	1	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Will Sheppard	47	684	8	14.6	85
London Humphreys	22	439	4	20.0	56
Jayden McGowan	36	383	0	10.6	50
Junior Sherrill	20	293	3	14.7	52

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Nick Howell (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Langston Patterson	74	8	1	2	0
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	0	0	6
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Ethan Barr	54	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Clifton	30	8	6	4	1
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Aeneas DiCosmo (Tr)	33	6	3	3	0
Kane Patterson	43	6	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	6
Trudell Berry	21	1	4
BJ Anderson	8	0	3