Tennessee at Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo (#15)Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky WildcatsKentucky logo
Saturday, October 28th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Tennessee -4 (50.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Tennessee 33 - Kentucky: 27  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (20 - 9)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (19 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TENN 2nd straight Road Game
UK coming off BYE
Our Line: Tennessee -2.5   (SP+ TENN -3.5)
Projected Score: TENN: 27 - UK: 25 (52)
TENN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TENN Travel: 146 miles
Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Tennessee vs Virginia-27.556.0W 49 - 13OY
Sat 9/9 Tennessee vs Austin Peay-48.065.5W 30 - 13UN
Sat 9/16 Tennessee at Florida-5.057.0L 16 - 29UN
Sat 9/23 Tennessee vs UTSA-24.059.0W 45 - 14UY
Sat 9/30 Tennessee vs South Carolina-12.059.0W 41 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Tennessee vs Texas A&M-3.054.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/21 Tennessee at Alabama+8.547.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 Tennessee at Kentucky-4.050.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Tennessee vs UConn-35.055.5W 59 - 3OY
Sat 11/11 Tennessee at Missouri-1.058.5L 7 - 36UN
Sat 11/18 Tennessee vs Georgia+9.059.0L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/25 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-27.058.0W 48 - 24ON
Mon 1/1 Tennessee vs Iowa-4.537.0W 35 - 0UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Kentucky vs Ball State-25.049.0W 44 - 14OY
Sat 9/9 Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-35.062.5W 28 - 17UN
Sat 9/16 Kentucky vs Akron-25.048.5W 35 - 3UY
Sat 9/23 Kentucky at Vanderbilt-13.550.0W 45 - 28OY
Sat 9/30 Kentucky vs Florida-1.044.0W 33 - 14OY
Sat 10/7 Kentucky at Georgia+14.547.0L 13 - 51ON
Sat 10/14 Kentucky vs Missouri-1.550.5L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Kentucky vs Tennessee+4.050.5L 27 - 33ON
Sat 11/4 Kentucky at Mississippi State-5.544.5W 24 - 3UY
Sat 11/11 Kentucky vs Alabama+10.045.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/18 Kentucky at South Carolina+2.552.5L 14 - 17UN
Sat 11/25 Kentucky at Louisville+7.547.5W 38 - 31OY
Fri 12/29 Kentucky vs Clemson+3.544.5L 35 - 38OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#36 (.27)46% (24)31.846% (39)3.31 (30)18747% (25)2323.56 (94)#54 (.16)39% (35)20.337% (19)41% (65)3.41 (34)65.60.91.2
UK#49 (.22)40% (93)29.141% (88)2.79 (118)12840% (83)2124.46 (23)#50 (.16)43% (87)25.842% (56)45% (116)3.95 (84)50.81.51.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
UK#118 (.09)41% (89)47% (31)3.02 (71)14635% (123)1853.49 (104)#62 (.16)46% (111)49% (122)42% (75)3.44 (31)52.11.91.3



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense1331.81946.3%3.560.9204191872325.651%49%46%47%13%.27
UK Defense1325.82443.3%3.951.4 - - - - - 48%51%42%45%14%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense1320.331.538.9%3.411.2 - - - - - 48%52%37%41%18%.16
UK Offense1329.129.940%4.461.5173391282124.943%55%41%40%18%.22

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee1322:3219.943%31%7.565.60.91.27.22.8430.3
Kentucky1327:3416.938%20%6.150.81.51.45.52629.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense1351% (60)46% (39)33.5186.95.620 (61).22 (28)3.31 (30)72% (80)7% (16)1.05 (39)
UK Defense1348% (46)42% (56) - - - - .1 (40)2.87 (29)70% (48)10% (75)0.87 (18)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense1348% (41)37% (19) - - - - .05 (21)2.71 (15)65% (24)13% (11)1.03 (85)
UK Offense1343% (108)41% (88)26.1127.74.918 (77).15 (71)2.79 (118)68% (106)11% (79)1.12 (17)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense1349% (69)47% (25)19.330.1231.77.71221 (65)5 (6).35 (39)1.5 (110)30% (39)32% (64).38 (54)6% (68)2.1 (63)
UK Defense1351% (92)45% (116) - - - - - - 11 (53).23 (45)1.4 (11)31% (76)30% (70).39 (104)5% (114)2.1 (75)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense1352% (96)41% (65) - - - - - - 10 (67).29 (85)1.6 (85)35% (27)31% (82).36 (93)5% (100)2 (41)
UK Offense1355% (26)40% (83)16.228.8211.67.41325 (37)11 (68).32 (54)1.7 (25)35% (114)28% (88).31 (77)8% (113)2.2 (19)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 9.71 #24
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.15 #36
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 5.94 #31
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #17
Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0 #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #28
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 9.71   Kentucky: 8.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 13.0   Kentucky: 9.3




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.5

Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 27
Kentucky 25

Total Points: 52

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.9
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Tennessee28Kentucky18TennesseeTennessee -17.5Kentucky45.5Over
202310/28Kentucky27Tennessee33TennesseeTennessee -4Tennessee50.5Over
202210/29Tennessee44Kentucky6TennesseeTennessee -10.5Tennessee62.5Under
202111/06Kentucky42Tennessee45TennesseeTennessee -1Tennessee57.5Over
202010/17Tennessee7Kentucky34KentuckyTennessee -6.0Kentucky45.5Under
201911/09Kentucky13Tennessee17TennesseeKentucky -2Tennessee42.0Under
201811/10Tennessee24Kentucky7TennesseeKentucky -5Tennessee43.0Under
201710/28Kentucky29Tennessee26KentuckyKentucky -4Tennessee46.0Over
201611/12Tennessee49Kentucky36TennesseeTennessee -10.5Tennessee58.0Over
201510/31Kentucky21Tennessee52TennesseeTennessee -7.5Tennessee60.5Over
201411/15Tennessee50Kentucky16TennesseeTennessee -6.5Tennessee0
201311/30Kentucky14Tennessee27TennesseeTennessee -4Tennessee0
201211/24Tennessee37Kentucky17Tennessee
201111/26Kentucky10Tennessee7Kentucky
201011/27Tennessee24Kentucky14Tennessee
200911/28Kentucky24Tennessee30Tennessee
200811/29Tennessee28Kentucky10Tennessee
200711/24Kentucky50Tennessee52Tennessee
200611/25Tennessee17Kentucky12Tennessee
200511/26Kentucky8Tennessee27Tennessee
200411/27Tennessee37Kentucky31Tennessee
200311/29Kentucky7Tennessee20Tennessee
200111/17Kentucky35Tennessee38Tennessee
200011/17Tennessee59Kentucky20Tennessee
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky326 Overs
Tennessee21104 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 114 - 83 - 41 - 4
Road Teams11 - 138 - 44 - 14 - 3

(#24) Tennessee Info
Power Rating: 9.71 #24
Offense Rating: 20.15 #36
Defense Rating: 5.94 #31
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0 #19
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #28
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #17
Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60


Tennessee has lost 1 straight
Tennessee has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 3 (1 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Tennessee Highlights
Tennessee has Really Good Running Game (#21)
Tennessee offense is efficent (#22)
Tennessee has a top Offensive Line (#61)
Tennessee does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#36)

Tennessee Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Tennessee has a good run defense (#102)
Tennessee Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#111)
Tennessee Defensive Line is very good (#58)
Tennessee Front 7 is disruptive (#76)
Tennessee has a great TO Margin (#54)

Tennessee Deficiencies
Tennessee Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Tennessee gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#18)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUKTENN
OverallOver#32#30
OffenseOff#59#55
DefenseDef#26#27
Special TeamsST#49#13
PassingPass#51#41
RushingRush#12#15
Run BlockRBLK#74#65
Pass BlockPBLK#53#63
Route RunningWR Rt#50#61
TacklingTkl#40#39
Run DefenseR Def#31#59
Pass Rush DefPRush#46#10
Coverage DefCov#33#21

Rematch from Week 9
Tennessee 4.0 (50.5)
Tennessee won at Kentucky this year (33-27)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Kentucky last year (28-18)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2023 (33-27)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2022 (44-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TENN | UK
Depth Chart: TENN | UK
Rosters: TENN | UK
(#43) Kentucky Info
Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30


Kentucky has lost 2 straight
Kentucky has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (3 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Kentucky Highlights
Kentucky offense is explosive (#92)
Kentucky offense is good in red zone (#60)
Kentucky defense does not give up big plays (#89)
Kentucky Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#46)
Kentucky Defensive Line is very good (#45)

Kentucky Deficiencies
Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#28)


  
Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joe Milton23035565%28142057.9
Nico Iamaleava284562%314207.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Wright137101347.482
Dylan Sampson10660375.744
Jabari Small9547525.040
Joe Milton7829973.881
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Squirrel White68804211.883
Ramel Keyton35642618.360
McCallan Castles (Tr)22283512.943
Dont'E Thornton13224117.247

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Herring795111
Aaron Beasley6912313
Jaylen McCollough583014
Wesley Walker534112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
James Pearce Jr.271410150
Tyler Baron2811652
Omarr Norman-Lott (Tr)266610
Aaron Beasley6912313
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamal Hadden190017
Tamarion McDonald404114
Jaylen McCollough583014

Kentucky's OC Liam Coen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Devin Leary (Tr)20937156%274625127.4
Kaiya Sheron2450%5001.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Re'Mahn Davis1991129145.775
Ramon Jefferson2818406.674
Barion Brown12147112.326
Demie Sumo2013917.042
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dane Key42636615.158
Tayvion Robinson41552413.556
Barion Brown43539412.560
Re'Mahn Davis3332379.858

View Kentucky's Full Roster
Kentucky's DC Brad White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Eryk Jackson898224
Trevin Wallace809630
Maxwell Hairston662006
Zion Childress582103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deone Walker5513882
J.J. Weaver448622
Trevin Wallace809630
Octavious Oxendine194320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxwell Hairston662006
Andru Phillips482005
D'Eryk Jackson898224