Tennessee at Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview

Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Tennessee -4 (50.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Tennessee 33 - Kentucky: 27 (SEC)

Volunteers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (20 - 9)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (37 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TENN 2nd straight Road Game
UK coming off BYE
Our Line: Tennessee -2.5 (SP+ TENN -3.5)
Projected Score: TENN: 29 - UK: 26 (55)
TENN Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
TENN Travel: 146 miles

Wildcats (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mark Stoops (69 - 59)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TENN Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Tennessee vs Virginia	-27.5	56.0	W 49 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-48.0	65.5	W 30 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/16	Tennessee at Florida	-5.0	57.0	L 16 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/23	Tennessee vs UTSA	-24.0	59.0	W 45 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Tennessee vs South Carolina	-12.0	59.0	W 41 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Tennessee vs Texas A&M	-3.0	54.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Tennessee at Alabama	+8.5	47.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/28	Tennessee at Kentucky	-4.0	50.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Tennessee vs UConn	-35.0	55.5	W 59 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Tennessee at Missouri	-1.0	58.5	L 7 - 36	U	N
Sat 11/18	Tennessee vs Georgia	+9.0	59.0	L 10 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/25	Tennessee vs Vanderbilt	-27.0	58.0	W 48 - 24	O	N
Mon 1/1	Tennessee vs Iowa	-4.5	37.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule

Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Kentucky vs Ball State	-25.0	49.0	W 44 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-35.0	62.5	W 28 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	Kentucky vs Akron	-25.0	48.5	W 35 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-13.5	50.0	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Kentucky vs Florida	-1.0	44.0	W 33 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Kentucky at Georgia	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/14	Kentucky vs Missouri	-1.5	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+4.0	50.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Kentucky at Mississippi State	-5.5	44.5	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Kentucky vs Alabama	+10.0	45.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Kentucky at South Carolina	+2.5	52.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/25	Kentucky at Louisville	+7.5	47.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Kentucky vs Clemson	+3.5	44.5	L 35 - 38	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TENN	.37	51%	39.8	51%	3.3	199	51%	326	4.81	.18	41%	28.8	39%	43%	3.16	69.5	0.8	1.8
UK	.11	40%	23	43%	3	116	37%	208	3.23	.07	37%	26.4	38%	37%	3.15	39.5	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TENN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TENN Offense	13	39.8	37	51.1%	4.81	0.8	25	526	199	326	5	50%	50%	51%	51%	10%	.37
UK Defense	13	26.4	22.6	37.2%	3.15	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	37%	14%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TENN Defense	13	28.8	29	41.2%	3.16	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	39%	43%	16%	.18
UK Offense	13	23	31.7	39.8%	3.23	1.5	18	325	116	208	3.3	51%	48%	43%	37%	18%	.11

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tennessee	13	25:14	25.4	41%	68%	8.1	69.5	0.8	1.8	7	2.4	1	30.6
Kentucky	13	33:08	17.6	34%	62%	5.7	39.5	1.5	1.5	4	1.5	2	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TENN Offense	13	50%	51%	40.2	199.5	5	40	.29	3.3	80%	7%	1.03
UK Defense	13	54%	38%	-	-	-	-	.06	2.91	62%	8%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TENN Defense	13	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.65	70%	11%	0.98
UK Offense	13	51%	43%	35.6	116.2	3.3	9	.05	3	65%	13%	0.78

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TENN Offense	13	50%	51%	22.3	32.5	326.1	10.1	14.6	38	3	.45	1.6	25%	32%	.4	3%	2.2
UK Defense	13	46%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.14	1.5	34%	26%	.18	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TENN Defense	13	56%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.29	1.6	32%	32%	.33	5%	2
UK Offense	13	48%	37%	17.2	26.8	208.5	7.8	12.1	21	13	.23	1.9	34%	28%	.22	6%	2

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 9.71 #24
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.15 #36
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 5.94 #31
2023 Talent Rating: 821.07 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #17
Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0 #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #28
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 9.71 Kentucky: 8.97

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 13.0 Kentucky: 9.3

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 8.97 #43
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 17.10 #60
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 10.02 #72
2023 Talent Rating: 740.54 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 37 #20
Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.0 #44
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Tennessee 29
Kentucky 26

Projected Total Points: 55

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Kentucky	34	Tennessee	56	Tennessee -7.5	Tennessee	55.5	Over
2024	11/02	Tennessee	28	Kentucky	18	Tennessee -17.5	Kentucky	45.5	Over
2023	10/28	Kentucky	27	Tennessee	33	Tennessee -4	Tennessee	50.5	Over
2022	10/29	Tennessee	44	Kentucky	6	Tennessee -10.5	Tennessee	62.5	Under
2021	11/06	Kentucky	42	Tennessee	45	Tennessee -1	Tennessee	57.5	Over
2020	10/17	Tennessee	7	Kentucky	34	Tennessee -6.0	Kentucky	45.5	Under
2019	11/09	Kentucky	13	Tennessee	17	Kentucky -2	Tennessee	42.0	Under
2018	11/10	Tennessee	24	Kentucky	7	Kentucky -5	Tennessee	43.0	Under
2017	10/28	Kentucky	29	Tennessee	26	Kentucky -4	Tennessee	46.0	Over
2016	11/12	Tennessee	49	Kentucky	36	Tennessee -10.5	Tennessee	58.0	Over
2015	10/31	Kentucky	21	Tennessee	52	Tennessee -7.5	Tennessee	60.5	Over
2014	11/15	Tennessee	50	Kentucky	16	Tennessee -6.5	Tennessee	0
2013	11/30	Kentucky	14	Tennessee	27	Tennessee -4	Tennessee	0
2012	11/24	Tennessee	37	Kentucky	17
2011	11/26	Kentucky	10	Tennessee	7
2010	11/27	Tennessee	24	Kentucky	14
2009	11/28	Kentucky	24	Tennessee	30
2008	11/29	Tennessee	28	Kentucky	10
2007	11/24	Kentucky	50	Tennessee	52
2006	11/25	Tennessee	17	Kentucky	12
2005	11/26	Kentucky	8	Tennessee	27
2004	11/27	Tennessee	37	Kentucky	31
2003	11/29	Kentucky	7	Tennessee	20
2001	11/17	Kentucky	35	Tennessee	38
2000	11/17	Tennessee	59	Kentucky	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	3	2	7 Overs
Tennessee	22	11	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 9	3 - 4	1 - 5
Road Teams	12 - 13	9 - 4	5 - 1	4 - 3

(#24) TENN at (#43) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TENN	UK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#24	#43
SP+SP+	#19	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#37	#39
OffenseOff	#59	#65
DefenseDef	#33	#30
Spec TeamsST	#13	#60
TalentTal	#16	#31
Blue ChipsBC%	#17	#20

Tennessee Injury Report

Kentucky Injury Report

Tennessee on Offense


CategoryCat	TENN Off	UK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#59	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#36	#72
SP+SP+	#28	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Tennessee Run Game


CategoryCat	TENN Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#22	#35
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#45

Tennessee Pass Game


CategoryCat	TENN Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#53	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#73	#55
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	TENN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#33
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#60	#31
SP+SP+	#44	#31
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	TENN Def
Run GameRun	#19	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#44

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	TENN Def
Pass GamePass	#65	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#61	#11
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Tennessee 4.0 (50.5)
Tennessee won at Kentucky this year (33-27)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Kentucky last year (56-34)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2024 (28-18)
Tennessee beat Kentucky in 2023 (33-27)

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joe Milton	230	355	65%	2814	20	5	7.9
Nico Iamaleava	28	45	62%	314	2	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaylen Wright	137	1013	4	7.4	82
Dylan Sampson	106	603	7	5.7	44
Jabari Small	95	475	2	5.0	40
Joe Milton	78	299	7	3.8	81

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Squirrel White	68	804	2	11.8	83
Ramel Keyton	35	642	6	18.3	60
McCallan Castles (Tr)	22	283	5	12.9	43
Dont'E Thornton	13	224	1	17.2	47

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Herring	79	5	1	1	1
Aaron Beasley	69	12	3	1	3
Jaylen McCollough	58	3	0	1	4
Wesley Walker	53	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
James Pearce Jr.	27	14	10	15	0
Tyler Baron	28	11	6	5	2
Omarr Norman-Lott (Tr)	26	6	6	1	0
Aaron Beasley	69	12	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kamal Hadden	19	0	0	1	7
Tamarion McDonald	40	4	1	1	4
Jaylen McCollough	58	3	0	1	4

UK's OC Liam Coen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Devin Leary (Tr)	209	371	56%	2746	25	12	7.4
Kaiya Sheron	2	4	50%	5	0	0	1.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Re'Mahn Davis	199	1129	14	5.7	75
Ramon Jefferson	28	184	0	6.6	74
Barion Brown	12	147	1	12.3	26
Demie Sumo	20	139	1	7.0	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Key	42	636	6	15.1	58
Tayvion Robinson	41	552	4	13.5	56
Barion Brown	43	539	4	12.5	60
Re'Mahn Davis	33	323	7	9.8	58

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Zion Childress	58	2	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deone Walker	55	13	8	8	2
J.J. Weaver	44	8	6	2	2
Trevin Wallace	80	9	6	3	0
Octavious Oxendine	19	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maxwell Hairston	66	2	0	0	6
Andru Phillips	48	2	0	0	5
D'Eryk Jackson	89	8	2	2	4