Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Tuesday, October 17th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -7.5 (60.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Jacksonville State 20 - Western Kentucky: 17 (Conference USA)

Hilltoppers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (34 - 22)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#49)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

JVST 2nd straight Home Game
WKU coming off BYE
JVST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Jacksonville State -2 (SP+ JVST -1)
Projected Score: WKU: 28 - JVST: 30 (57)
WKU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 222 miles

Gamecocks (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (11 - 3)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (34 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
JVST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Western Kentucky vs South Florida	-13.5	71.5	W 41 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian	-41.5	64.5	W 52 - 22	O	N
Sat 9/16	Western Kentucky at Ohio State	+29.5	65.0	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/23	Western Kentucky at Troy	+3.5	57.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-6.5	61.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Thu 10/5	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-6.0	59.0	W 35 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-7.5	60.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 10/24	Western Kentucky vs Liberty	+4.0	61.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Western Kentucky at UTEP	-9.5	54.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-4.5	55.5	L 29 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-12.5	52.0	W 28 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Western Kentucky at Florida International	-11.5	54.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Mon 12/18	Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion	+4.0	49.0	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Jacksonville State vs UTEP	+1.5	54.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/2	Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State	-20.0	55.0	W 49 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina	+13.5	61.0	L 16 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/23	Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan	-6.5	51.0	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Jacksonville State at Sam Houston	-6.5	36.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Wed 10/4	Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee	+2.5	52.0	W 45 - 30	O	Y
Tue 10/10	Jacksonville State vs Liberty	+7.0	59.5	L 13 - 31	U	N
Tue 10/17	Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky	+7.5	60.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Wed 10/25	Jacksonville State at Florida International	-9.0	48.0	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Jacksonville State at South Carolina	+15.5	55.0	L 28 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech	-8.5	53.5	W 56 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Jacksonville State at New Mexico State	+2.0	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/16	Jacksonville State vs Louisiana	-3.5	58.5	W 34 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	.28	44%	29.5	43%	3.17	145	46%	352	3.63	.11	41%	22.8	44%	40%	4.02	57.5	1.6	2.9
JVST	.32	47%	28.1	52%	3.32	0	42%	0	4.2	.13	38%	25.2	39%	38%	3.52	0	0	0

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
JVST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	29.5	24.5	44.5%	3.63	1.6	25	497	145	352	4.9	37%	62%	43%	46%	17%	.28
JVST Defense	1	25.2	23	37.9%	3.52	0	-	-	-	-	-	57%	42%	39%	38%	3950%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	22.8	28	41.4%	4.02	2.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	44%	40%	17%	.11
JVST Offense	1	28.1	34	47.2%	4.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	62%	36%	52%	42%	2047%	.32

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	28:57	24.6	42%	40%	6.2	57.5	1.6	2.9	4.9	2.3	5	30
Jacksonville State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	31.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	37%	43%	29.6	145.1	4.9	15	.18	3.17	71%	7%	1.05
JVST Defense	1	57%	39%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.84	69%	3949%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	79%	10%	0.96
JVST Offense	1	62%	52%	0	0	0	0	.36	3.32	76%	2046%	1.15

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	62%	46%	28.7	44.4	352.3	7.9	12.3	43	12	.39	1.7	31%	37%	.52	10%	2.4
JVST Defense	1	42%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.28	1.8	34%	27%	.21	1%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.12	1.4	33%	25%	.14	7%	2
JVST Offense	1	36%	42%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.35	1.9	28%	36%	.51	1%	2.2

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -1.01 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
2023 Talent Rating: 491.26 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Western Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40
Western Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -1.01 Jacksonville State: 0.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -1.5 Jacksonville State: -0.7

Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: 0.95 #79
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 13.61 #93
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 1.52 #13
2023 Talent Rating: 227.27 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Jacksonville State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
Jacksonville State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.7 #67
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #77
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Jacksonville State 30
Western Kentucky 28

Projected Total Points: 57

Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Jacksonville State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Jacksonville State	37	Western Kentucky	34	Western Kentucky -1.5	Jacksonville State	56.5	Over
2024	11/30	Western Kentucky	19	Jacksonville State	17	Jacksonville State -0.5	Western Kentucky	62.5	Under
2024	12/06	Jacksonville State	52	Western Kentucky	12	Jacksonville State -4.5	Jacksonville State	58.5	Over
2023	10/17	Jacksonville State	20	Western Kentucky	17	Western Kentucky -7.5	Jacksonville State	60.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Jacksonville State	3	3	2 Overs
Western Kentucky	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	4 - 0	1 - 0	3 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	0 - 4	0 - 3	0 - 1

(#70) WKU at (#79) JVST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	JVST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#70	#79
SP+SP+	#72	#67
Perf GradeGrade	#108	#68
OffenseOff	#111	#68
DefenseDef	#90	#37
Spec TeamsST	#33	#124
TalentTal	#89	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Western Kentucky Injury Report

Jacksonville State Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#37
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#46	#13
SP+SP+	#55	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Western Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
Run GameRun	#133	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#73

Western Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	JVST Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#67
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#83	#36
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Jacksonville State on Offense


CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#68	#90
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#93	#70
SP+SP+	#77	#86
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Jacksonville State Run Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#59	#122
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#128

Jacksonville State Pass Game


CategoryCat	JVST Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#27	#63
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in JSU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Western Kentucky 7.5 (60.5)
Jacksonville State won vs Western Kentucky this year (20-17)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky last year (37-34)
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky in 2024 (52-12)
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (20-17)

WKU's OC Drew Hollingshead (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Austin Reed (Tr)	289	470	62%	3324	31	11	7.1
Caden Veltkamp	41	54	76%	387	5	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	104	490	3	4.7	64
Markese Stepp	69	310	3	4.5	56
Davion Ervin-Poindexter	63	241	1	3.8	18
LT Sanders	31	138	0	4.5	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Corley	79	984	11	12.5	75
Dalvin Smith	50	513	6	10.3	45
Easton Messer	42	484	4	11.5	35
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)	20	326	2	16.3	39

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Talique Allen (Tr)	48	1	0	1	3
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Desmyn Baker	41	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Sebastian Benjamin	25	3	3	2	0
Hosea Wheeler	40	4	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Upton Stout	24	1	1	5	8
Rome Weber	19	1	0	0	7
Anthony Johnson Jr.	36	1	0	0	5

JVST's OC Rod Smith (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zion Webb	111	220	51%	1437	6	8	6.5
Logan Smothers	66	117	56%	735	6	4	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Jackson	146	897	7	6.1	68
Zion Webb	132	708	7	5.4	61
Ron Wiggins	92	468	6	5.1	37
Anwar Lewis	93	452	3	4.9	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perry Carter	38	687	4	18.1	63
Quinton Lane	31	346	1	11.2	30
Sean Brown	19	294	5	15.5	58
Michael Pettway	17	196	1	11.5	37

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quae Drake	92	7	2	2	2
Kolbi Fuqua	86	6	3	6	1
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Jeremiah Harris	65	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Hardie	59	14	8	4	1
Curley Young Jr.	33	6	5	3	0
Jaylen Swain	30	7	4	4	2
Kamari Stephens	12	6	4	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derek Carter	44	2	0	0	8
Fred Perry	75	4	0	7	5
Kekoura Tarnue	53	2	1	0	4