Western Kentucky at Ohio State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Ohio State Buckeyes(#1)

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -29.5 (65.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Ohio State 63 - Western Kentucky: 10

Hilltoppers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (34 - 22)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#49)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

OSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Ohio State -29 (SP+ OSU -28)
Projected Score: WKU: 15 - OSU: 44 (60)
OSU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 51%
WKU Travel: 279 miles, 1 hrs behind

Buckeyes (11 - 2) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Ryan Day (48 - 6)
Avg Score : 31 - 11 (38 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
OSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Western Kentucky vs South Florida	-13.5	71.5	W 41 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian	-41.5	64.5	W 52 - 22	O	N
Sat 9/16	Western Kentucky at Ohio State	+29.5	65.0	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/23	Western Kentucky at Troy	+3.5	57.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-6.5	61.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Thu 10/5	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-6.0	59.0	W 35 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-7.5	60.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 10/24	Western Kentucky vs Liberty	+4.0	61.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Western Kentucky at UTEP	-9.5	54.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-4.5	55.5	L 29 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-12.5	52.0	W 28 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Western Kentucky at Florida International	-11.5	54.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Mon 12/18	Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion	+4.0	49.0	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ohio State at Indiana	-30.0	59.0	W 23 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/9	Ohio State vs Youngstown State	-45.5	56.0	W 35 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Ohio State vs Western Kentucky	-29.5	65.0	W 63 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ohio State at Notre Dame	-3.0	55.5	W 17 - 14	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Ohio State vs Maryland	-17.0	56.5	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Ohio State at Purdue	-17.5	53.0	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ohio State vs Penn State	-4.0	47.0	W 20 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ohio State at Wisconsin	-14.5	48.0	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/4	Ohio State at Rutgers	-19.0	42.5	W 35 - 16	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ohio State vs Michigan State	-30.5	48.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ohio State vs Minnesota	-27.5	51.5	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ohio State at Michigan	+3.0	47.0	L 24 - 30	O	N
Fri 12/29	Ohio State vs Missouri	-4.0	51.0	L 3 - 14	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#47 (.22)	40% (92)	30.5	38% (119)	3.07 (78)	107	41% (70)	295	4.95 (6)	#81 (.2)	44% (98)	28.7	48% (121)	41% (53)	4 (87)	36.8	1.8	1.8
OSU	#14 (.31)	47% (22)	30.5	45% (49)	3.18 (57)	139	49% (12)	269	4.21 (36)	#5 (.03)	36% (11)	11.2	35% (12)	37% (17)	2.69 (5)	44.5	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)		38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)		48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
OSU	#1 (.43)	52% (3)		48% (19)	3.37 (15)	137	56% (1)	211	4.6 (15)	#2 (-.01)	36% (7)		39% (26)	34% (8)	2.05 (1)	31.6	0.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	13	30.5	24.7	40%	4.95	1.8	20	402	107	295	3.9	38%	61%	38%	41%	16%	.22
OSU Defense	13	11.2	8.7	35.8%	2.69	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	35%	37%	15%	.03

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	13	28.7	29.8	44%	4	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	48%	41%	14%	.2
OSU Offense	13	30.5	38.3	46.6%	4.21	1	21	408	139	269	4.2	48%	51%	45%	49%	14%	.31

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	13	29:32	20.2	43%	62%	4.5	36.8	1.8	1.8	4.4	2	1	28.2
Ohio State	13	29:25	20.9	43%	56%	5.7	44.5	1	0.8	4.8	1.7	3	28.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (119)	27.5	106.6	3.9	12 (116)	.06 (117)	3.07 (78)	76% (45)	8% (23)	0.93 (99)
OSU Defense	13	51% (85)	35% (12)	-	-	-	-	.04 (18)	3.02 (52)	58% (7)	9% (103)	0.98 (56)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	13	52% (94)	48% (121)	-	-	-	-	.19 (98)	3.47 (125)	73% (65)	9% (109)	0.96 (45)
OSU Offense	13	48% (83)	45% (49)	33.2	138.8	4.2	20 (61)	.15 (72)	3.18 (57)	78% (34)	7% (14)	0.84 (126)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	13	61% (6)	41% (70)	26.4	41.5	295.2	7.1	11.2	38 (3)	14 (107)	.35 (42)	1.7 (29)	33% (90)	31% (69)	.39 (46)	9% (128)	2.4 (4)
OSU Defense	13	49% (62)	37% (17)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.04 (1)	1.4 (2)	33% (51)	26% (21)	.15 (6)	7% (47)	1.8 (13)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	13	47% (37)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.27 (64)	1.6 (69)	31% (80)	32% (99)	.37 (97)	6% (81)	1.9 (26)
OSU Offense	13	51% (49)	49% (12)	19.6	30.8	269.1	8.8	13.7	26 (31)	7 (21)	.5 (10)	1.7 (44)	28% (12)	34% (33)	.48 (23)	7% (95)	2 (99)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -1.01 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Western Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40
Western Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -1.01 Ohio State: 27.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -1.5 Ohio State: 26.7

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 27.55 #3
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.07 #13
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -0.66 #6
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 85 #2
Ohio State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Ohio State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.7 #3
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #25
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.8 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.7
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Western Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ohio State 44
Western Kentucky 15

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Kentucky 29
Ohio State 27

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 32
Western Kentucky 19

Total Points: 51

Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 11.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.7

Ohio State's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 2
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Ohio State	63	Western Kentucky	10	Ohio State -29.5	Ohio State	65.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio State	1	1	1 Overs
Western Kentucky	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#70) WKU at (#3) OSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	OSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#70	#3
SP+SP+	#72	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#108	#7
OffenseOff	#111	#19
DefenseDef	#90	#7
Spec TeamsST	#33	#14
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#2

Western Kentucky Injury Report

Ohio State Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	WKU Off	OSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#7
SuccessSuc	#92	#11
ExplosiveExp	#8	#11
PPAPPA	#47	#5
PowerPwr	#46	#6
SP+SP+	#55	#3
Pts POPPO	#6	#5
HavocHav	#74	#85

Western Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	OSU Def
Run GameRun	#133	#13
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#12
Run ExplRExp	#99	#56
PPAExp	#117	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#52
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#86
TackleTak	-	#6

Western Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	OSU Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#17
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#2
PPAExp	#42	#1
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#83	#12
F7 HavocF7	#23	#103
DB HavocDB	#128	#47

Ohio State on Offense


CategoryCat	OSU Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#90
SuccessSuc	#22	#98
ExplosiveExp	#78	#41
PPAPPA	#14	#81
PowerPwr	#13	#70
SP+SP+	#25	#86
Pts POPPO	#36	#87
HavocHav	#29	#114

Ohio State Run Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#30	#122
Run SuccessRSuc	#49	#121
Run ExplRExp	#126	#45
PPAExp	#72	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#48	-
OL YdsOLY	#57	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#52	#118
TackleTak	-	#128

Ohio State Pass Game


CategoryCat	OSU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	#12	#53
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#69
PPAExp	#10	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#64	#63
F7 HavocF7	#14	#109
DB HavocDB	#95	#81

Program Comparison
OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'23 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

WKU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ohio Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 76°

Rematch from Week 3
Ohio State -29.5 (65.0)
Ohio State won vs Western Kentucky this year (63-10)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (63-10)

WKU's OC Drew Hollingshead (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Austin Reed (Tr)	289	470	62%	3324	31	11	7.1
Caden Veltkamp	41	54	76%	387	5	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	104	490	3	4.7	64
Markese Stepp	69	310	3	4.5	56
Davion Ervin-Poindexter	63	241	1	3.8	18
LT Sanders	31	138	0	4.5	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Corley	79	984	11	12.5	75
Dalvin Smith	50	513	6	10.3	45
Easton Messer	42	484	4	11.5	35
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)	20	326	2	16.3	39

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Talique Allen (Tr)	48	1	0	1	3
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Desmyn Baker	41	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Sebastian Benjamin	25	3	3	2	0
Hosea Wheeler	40	4	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Upton Stout	24	1	1	5	8
Rome Weber	19	1	0	0	7
Anthony Johnson Jr.	36	1	0	0	5

OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kyle McCord	229	348	66%	3170	24	6	9.1
Devin Brown	16	28	57%	217	2	1	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TreVeyon Henderson	156	926	11	5.9	75
DeaMonte Trayanum	85	373	3	4.4	40
Xavier Johnson	28	190	0	6.8	27
Miyan Williams	49	158	3	3.2	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvin Harrison Jr.	67	1211	14	18.1	75
Cade Stover	41	576	5	14.0	49
Emeka Egbuka	41	514	4	12.5	28
Julian Fleming	26	271	0	10.4	37

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Steele Chambers	83	2	0	1	1
Tommy Eichenberg	80	3	1	4	0
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)	59	1	0	0	5
Cody Simon	57	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Sawyer	48	10	7	3	2
J.T. Tuimoloau	38	7	5	6	2
Tyleik Williams	54	10	3	1	5
Sonny Styles	53	5	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Denzel Burke	24	3	0	8
Josh Proctor	47	4	1	8
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)	59	1	0	5