South Florida at Western Kentucky - 2023 Matchup Preview

South Florida Bulls at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -13.5 (71.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Western Kentucky 41 - South Florida: 24

Bulls (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 7.1 (#76)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Western Kentucky -9 (SP+ WKU -8)
Projected Score: USF: 28 - WKU: 37 (65)
WKU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
USF Travel: 664 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Hilltoppers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (34 - 22)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#49)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
WKU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Florida at Western Kentucky	+13.5	71.5	L 24 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/9	South Florida vs Florida A&M	-20.0	63.0	W 38 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Florida vs Alabama	+34.0	61.0	L 3 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Florida vs Rice	+2.5	56.5	W 42 - 29	O	Y
Sat 9/30	South Florida at Navy	+4.0	54.0	W 44 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/7	South Florida at UAB	-3.5	68.5	L 35 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/14	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-3.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/21	South Florida at UConn	+1.0	57.0	W 24 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	South Florida at Memphis	+13.5	68.5	L 50 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/11	South Florida vs Temple	-7.5	70.5	W 27 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/17	South Florida at UTSA	+14.5	65.5	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/25	South Florida vs Charlotte	-7.5	56.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Thu 12/21	South Florida vs Syracuse	+3.0	56.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Western Kentucky vs South Florida	-13.5	71.5	W 41 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian	-41.5	64.5	W 52 - 22	O	N
Sat 9/16	Western Kentucky at Ohio State	+29.5	65.0	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/23	Western Kentucky at Troy	+3.5	57.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-6.5	61.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Thu 10/5	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-6.0	59.0	W 35 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-7.5	60.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 10/24	Western Kentucky vs Liberty	+4.0	61.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Western Kentucky at UTEP	-9.5	54.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-4.5	55.5	L 29 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-12.5	52.0	W 28 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Western Kentucky at Florida International	-11.5	54.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Mon 12/18	Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion	+4.0	49.0	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	.27	44%	40.5	46%	3.54	197	42%	193	4.12	.39	51%	23.4	52%	51%	4.56	36.9	1.7	1.7
WKU	.28	44%	29.5	43%	3.17	145	46%	352	3.63	.11	41%	22.8	44%	40%	4.02	57.5	1.6	2.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	12	40.5	35	44%	4.12	1.7	19	390	197	193	5.3	56%	43%	46%	42%	16%	.27
WKU Defense	14	22.8	18.8	41.4%	4.02	2.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	44%	40%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	12	23.4	32.3	51.1%	4.56	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	52%	51%	14%	.39
WKU Offense	14	29.5	35	44.5%	3.63	1.6	25	497	145	352	4.9	37%	62%	43%	46%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	12	29:28	19.3	39%	45%	4.6	36.9	1.7	1.7	5.2	1.2	1	29.9
Western Kentucky	14	28:57	24.6	42%	40%	6.2	57.5	1.6	2.9	4.9	2.3	5	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	12	56%	46%	36.8	196.8	5.3	25	.33	3.54	79%	11%	1.2
WKU Defense	14	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	79%	10%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	12	54%	52%	-	-	-	-	.41	3.52	70%	10%	1.25
WKU Offense	14	37%	43%	29.6	145.1	4.9	15	.18	3.17	71%	7%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	12	43%	42%	15.7	27.2	192.9	7.1	12.3	18	9	.24	1.6	31%	28%	.33	5%	2.3
WKU Defense	14	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.12	1.4	33%	25%	.14	7%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	12	45%	51%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.43	1.5	26%	38%	.5	4%	1.9
WKU Offense	14	62%	46%	28.7	44.4	352.3	7.9	12.3	43	12	.39	1.7	31%	37%	.52	10%	2.4

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: -5.66 #95
South Florida's Offense Rating: 13.60 #94
South Florida's Defense Rating: 11.46 #92
2023 Talent Rating: 622.89 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
South Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 7.10
South Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #102
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #61
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.0 #123

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 471.63
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -5.66 Western Kentucky: 1.245

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -9.5 Western Kentucky: -1.5

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 1.245 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
2023 Talent Rating: 491.26 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Western Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40
Western Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 37
South Florida 28

Projected Total Points: 65

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Western Kentucky	41	South Florida	24	Western Kentucky -13.5	Western Kentucky	71.5	Under
2015	12/21	South Florida	35	Western Kentucky	45	Western Kentucky -3	Western Kentucky	0
2010	09/25	South Florida	24	Western Kentucky	12
2009	09/12	Western Kentucky	13	South Florida	35
2000	11/03	South Florida	30	Western Kentucky	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Kentucky	2	2	0 Overs
South Florida	3	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#95) USF at (#70) WKU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USF	WKU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#95	#70
SP+SP+	#102	#72
Perf GradeGrade	#102	#108
OffenseOff	#107	#111
DefenseDef	#78	#90
Spec TeamsST	#79	#33
TalentTal	#65	#89
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

South Florida Injury Report

Western Kentucky Injury Report

South Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	USF Off	WKU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#107	#90
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#94	#70
SP+SP+	#61	#86
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#57	#122
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#128

South Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	USF Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#74	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#93	#63
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Western Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	WKU Off	USF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#78
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#46	#92
SP+SP+	#55	#123
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Western Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	USF Def
Run GameRun	#133	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#111

Western Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	USF Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#103
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#83	#48
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Western Kentucky -13.5 (71.5)
Western Kentucky won vs South Florida this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat South Florida in 2023 (41-24)

USF's OC Joel Gordon (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Byrum Brown	276	426	65%	3292	26	11	7.7
Bryce Archie (Tr)	7	15	47%	53	0	0	3.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Byrum Brown	203	809	11	4.0	60
Nay'Quan Wright (Tr)	180	797	8	4.4	47
Michel Dukes	63	350	2	5.6	30
K'Wan Powell	61	215	1	3.5	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Atkins	92	1054	7	11.5	88
Naiem Simmons (Tr)	39	637	5	16.3	53
Khafre Brown	27	435	5	16.1	84
Mike Brown-Stephens (Tr)	27	350	2	13.0	38

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
Jaelen Stokes	61	5	2	1	1
James Gordon Iv	58	9	4	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
James Gordon Iv	58	9	4	4	2
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5
Jonathan Ross	47	7	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tavin Ward	38	3	0	0	8
Daquan Evans	64	14	4	5	7
Jhalyn Shuler	97	9	2	3	5

WKU's OC Drew Hollingshead (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Austin Reed (Tr)	289	470	62%	3324	31	11	7.1
Caden Veltkamp	41	54	76%	387	5	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	104	490	3	4.7	64
Markese Stepp	69	310	3	4.5	56
Davion Ervin-Poindexter	63	241	1	3.8	18
LT Sanders	31	138	0	4.5	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Corley	79	984	11	12.5	75
Dalvin Smith	50	513	6	10.3	45
Easton Messer	42	484	4	11.5	35
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)	20	326	2	16.3	39

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Talique Allen (Tr)	48	1	0	1	3
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Desmyn Baker	41	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Sebastian Benjamin	25	3	3	2	0
Hosea Wheeler	40	4	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Upton Stout	24	1	1	5	8
Rome Weber	19	1	0	0	7
Anthony Johnson Jr.	36	1	0	0	5