Minnesota at Illinois - 2022 Matchup Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, October 15th 2022 (12:00 PM EDT)
Minnesota -4.5 (40.0)
Illinois 26 - Minnesota: 14 (Big Ten)

Golden Gophers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (35 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (8 - 38 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ILL 2nd straight Home Game
MINN coming off BYE
ILL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2.5 (SP+ MINN -0)
Projected Score: MINN: 17 - ILL: 30 (47)
MINN Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
MINN Travel: 422 miles

Fighting Illini (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MINN Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Minnesota's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Minnesota vs New Mexico State	-36.0	52.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Minnesota vs Western Illinois	-41.0	56.5	W 62 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Minnesota vs Colorado	-28.0	47.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Minnesota at Michigan State	-3.0	50.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Minnesota vs Purdue	-9.0	53.0	L 10 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Minnesota at Illinois	-4.5	40.0	L 14 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/22	Minnesota at Penn State	+5.5	43.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/29	Minnesota vs Rutgers	-14.0	40.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Minnesota at Nebraska	-14.5	44.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/12	Minnesota vs Northwestern	-17.0	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Minnesota vs Iowa	-2.0	31.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Minnesota at Wisconsin	+3.0	37.0	W 23 - 16	O	Y
Thu 12/29	Minnesota vs Syracuse	-10.5	45.0	W 28 - 20	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Illinois's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Illinois vs Wyoming	-14.0	42.5	W 38 - 6	O	Y
Fri 9/2	Illinois at Indiana	+1.0	47.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/10	Illinois vs Virginia	-4.0	55.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 9/22	Illinois vs Chattanooga	-20.0	44.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Illinois at Wisconsin	+6.5	43.0	W 34 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Illinois vs Iowa	-3.5	36.5	W 9 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/15	Illinois vs Minnesota	+4.5	40.0	W 26 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Illinois at Nebraska	-7.5	50.5	W 26 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Illinois vs Michigan State	-16.5	41.0	L 15 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/12	Illinois vs Purdue	-6.0	44.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/19	Illinois at Michigan	+17.0	41.5	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Illinois at Northwestern	-15.0	38.0	W 41 - 3	O	Y
Mon 1/2	Illinois vs Mississippi State	+3.5	46.5	L 10 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	.18	42%	23	43%	3.13	198	41%	162	3.73	.1	37%	22.9	38%	37%	3.75	45.3	1	1.4
ILL	.13	40%	29.4	45%	3.38	174	33%	156	3.16	.18	44%	23.6	45%	42%	3.34	52.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Offense	13	23	8.3	42%	3.73	1	20	360	198	162	4.3	68%	32%	43%	41%	14%	.18
ILL Defense	12	23.6	14.4	43.6%	3.34	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	45%	42%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Defense	13	22.9	38	37.4%	3.75	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	37%	17%	.1
ILL Offense	12	29.4	31.3	39.7%	3.16	1	18	330	174	156	4.5	59%	41%	45%	33%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Minnesota	13	35:26	19.9	44%	60%	4.5	45.3	1	1.4	4.5	1.9	0	32
Illinois	12	29:11	17.6	38%	38%	5	52.8	1	1.6	5.7	2.5	0	28

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Offense	13	68%	43%	46.3	198.1	4.3	27	.12	3.13	81%	9%	0.91
ILL Defense	12	52%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.21	78%	9%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Defense	13	47%	38%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.78	74%	10%	0.94
ILL Offense	12	59%	45%	39	173.6	4.5	12	.15	3.38	86%	9%	0.87

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Offense	13	32%	41%	11.7	19.7	162	8.2	13.9	12	9	.31	1.8	29%	30%	.34	5%	2
ILL Defense	12	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.26	1.4	31%	27%	.18	6%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Defense	13	52%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.15	1.4	35%	21%	.12	7%	2
ILL Offense	12	41%	33%	13.8	26.8	156.2	5.8	11.4	13	6	.12	1.7	34%	25%	.15	7%	1.8

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: NR
Minnesota's Offense Rating: NR
Minnesota's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Minnesota's 2022 Expected Record: -
Minnesota's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #16
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #90
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.6 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: Illinois: 10.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 16.0 Illinois: 15.9

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 10.45 NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Illinois's 2022 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #17
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #98
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 5.5 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 8.3
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Minnesota's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 30
Minnesota 17

Projected Total Points: 47

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Illinois	17	Minnesota	25	Minnesota -2.5	Minnesota	47.0	Under
2023	11/04	Minnesota	26	Illinois	27	Minnesota -1.5	Illinois	43.0	Over
2022	10/15	Illinois	26	Minnesota	14	Minnesota -4.5	Illinois	40.0	Push
2021	11/06	Minnesota	6	Illinois	14	Minnesota -14.5	Illinois	44.5	Under
2020	11/07	Illinois	14	Minnesota	41	Minnesota -7.5	Minnesota	64.5	Under
2019	10/05	Minnesota	40	Illinois	17	Minnesota -14	Minnesota	58.0	Under
2018	11/03	Illinois	55	Minnesota	31	Minnesota -8.5	Illinois	61.5	Over
2017	10/21	Minnesota	24	Illinois	17	Minnesota -14.5	Illinois	48.5	Under
2016	10/29	Illinois	17	Minnesota	40	Minnesota -10	Minnesota	46.5	Over
2015	11/21	Minnesota	32	Illinois	23	Minnesota -4.5	Minnesota	47.0	Over
2014	10/25	Illinois	28	Minnesota	24	Minnesota -6.5	Illinois	0
2012	11/10	Illinois	3	Minnesota	17
2011	11/26	Minnesota	27	Illinois	7
2010	11/13	Illinois	34	Minnesota	38
2009	11/07	Minnesota	32	Illinois	35
2008	10/11	Illinois	20	Minnesota	27
2007	11/03	Minnesota	17	Illinois	44
2004	10/23	Minnesota	45	Illinois	0
2003	10/25	Illinois	10	Minnesota	36
2002	10/03	Minnesota	31	Illinois	10
2001	10/06	Illinois	25	Minnesota	14
2000	09/29	Minnesota	44	Illinois	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	8	6	4 Overs
Minnesota	14	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 11	5 - 6	2 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	11 - 11	6 - 5	3 - 3	3 - 2

(#) MINN at (#) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MINN	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#16	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#4	#8
OffenseOff	#2	#24
DefenseDef	#28	#4
Spec TeamsST	#37	#56
TalentTal	#50	#56
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Minnesota Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#4
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#3
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#22	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#30

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#3
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#43	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#24	#28
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#98	#5
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#51	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#9

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#39	#125
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'22 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Minnesota 4.5 (40.0)
Illinois won vs Minnesota this year (26-14)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Illinois in 2024 (25-17)
Illinois beat Minnesota in 2023 (27-26)

MINN's OC Kirk Ciarrocca (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD