Michigan State at Illinois - 2022 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, November 5th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Illinois -16.5 (41.0)
Michigan State 23 - Illinois: 15 (Big Ten)

Spartans (5 - 7) (3 - 6 - 3)
Coach Mel Tucker (13 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: -10 (SP+ ILL -15)
Projected Score: MSU: 21 - ILL: 31 (52)
ILL Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
MSU Travel: 266 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Fighting Illini (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Michigan State vs Western Michigan	-22.0	54.5	W 35 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/10	Michigan State vs Akron	-34.5	56.0	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Michigan State at Washington	+3.5	56.5	L 28 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/24	Michigan State vs Minnesota	+3.0	50.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/1	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	58.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/8	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+27.0	64.5	L 20 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/15	Michigan State vs Wisconsin	+7.0	49.5	W 34 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Michigan State at Michigan	+22.0	55.0	L 7 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Michigan State at Illinois	+16.5	41.0	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-10.0	41.0	W 27 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/19	Michigan State vs Indiana	-12.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/26	Michigan State at Penn State	+19.0	54.5	L 16 - 35	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Illinois's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Illinois vs Wyoming	-14.0	42.5	W 38 - 6	O	Y
Fri 9/2	Illinois at Indiana	+1.0	47.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/10	Illinois vs Virginia	-4.0	55.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 9/22	Illinois vs Chattanooga	-20.0	44.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Illinois at Wisconsin	+6.5	43.0	W 34 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Illinois vs Iowa	-3.5	36.5	W 9 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/15	Illinois vs Minnesota	+4.5	40.0	W 26 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Illinois at Nebraska	-7.5	50.5	W 26 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Illinois vs Michigan State	-16.5	41.0	L 15 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/12	Illinois vs Purdue	-6.0	44.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/19	Illinois at Michigan	+17.0	41.5	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Illinois at Northwestern	-15.0	38.0	W 41 - 3	O	Y
Mon 1/2	Illinois vs Mississippi State	+3.5	46.5	L 10 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	.27	43%	24.6	44%	2.94	176	43%	254	3.78	.19	44%	29.9	41%	46%	3.43	63.9	1.4	1.7
ILL	.13	40%	29.4	45%	3.38	174	33%	156	3.16	.18	44%	23.6	45%	42%	3.34	52.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	13	24.6	21.6	43.3%	3.78	1.4	21	429	176	254	4.8	52%	48%	44%	43%	18%	.27
ILL Defense	12	23.6	14.4	43.6%	3.34	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	45%	42%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	13	29.9	32.8	44%	3.43	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	38%	61%	41%	46%	17%	.19
ILL Offense	12	29.4	31.3	39.7%	3.16	1	18	330	174	156	4.5	59%	41%	45%	33%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	13	28:28	20.8	40%	70%	6.9	63.9	1.4	1.7	6.5	3.3	4	29.3
Illinois	12	29:11	17.6	38%	38%	5	52.8	1	1.6	5.7	2.5	0	28

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	13	52%	44%	36.8	175.6	4.8	23	.18	2.94	67%	10%	1.12
ILL Defense	12	52%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.21	78%	9%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	13	38%	41%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.78	70%	10%	0.85
ILL Offense	12	59%	45%	39	173.6	4.5	12	.15	3.38	86%	9%	0.87

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	13	48%	43%	18.7	30.8	253.7	8.3	13.6	27	10	.38	1.8	32%	33%	.4	7%	2.1
ILL Defense	12	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.26	1.4	31%	27%	.18	6%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	13	61%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.28	1.4	33%	32%	.38	6%	2.1
ILL Offense	12	41%	33%	13.8	26.8	156.2	5.8	11.4	13	6	.12	1.7	34%	25%	.15	7%	1.8

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Michigan State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #67
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #48
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #82

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: Illinois: 10.45

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 1.2 Illinois: 15.9

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 10.45 NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Illinois's 2022 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #17
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #98
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 5.5 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2022 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 3
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 2
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 2
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 31
Michigan State 21

Projected Total Points: 52

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Illinois	38	Michigan State	16	Illinois -2	Illinois	47.5	Over
2022	11/05	Illinois	15	Michigan State	23	Illinois -16.5	Michigan State	41.0	Under
2019	11/09	Michigan State	34	Illinois	37	Michigan State -15.5	Illinois	48.0	Over
2016	11/05	Illinois	31	Michigan State	27	Michigan State -7	Illinois	47.5	Over
2013	10/26	Illinois	3	Michigan State	42	Michigan State -13	Michigan State	0
2010	10/16	Michigan State	26	Illinois	6
2009	10/10	Illinois	14	Michigan State	24
2006	09/30	Michigan State	20	Illinois	23
2005	09/24	Illinois	14	Michigan State	61
2004	10/09	Michigan State	38	Illinois	25
2003	10/11	Illinois	14	Michigan State	49
2000	10/27	Michigan State	14	Illinois	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	4	3	3 Overs
Michigan State	8	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 7	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 5	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#) MSU at (#) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#67	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#75	#8
OffenseOff	#52	#24
DefenseDef	#96	#4
Spec TeamsST	#92	#56
TalentTal	#34	#56
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Michigan State Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#4
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#48	#3
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#103	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#30

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#3
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#28	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#24	#96
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#98	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#51	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#64

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#125
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#39	#88
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Illinois -16.5 (41.0)
Michigan State won at Illinois this year (23-15)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Michigan State in 2024 (38-16)

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD