Illinois at Minnesota - 2021 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday, November 6th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Minnesota -14.5 (44.5)
Illinois 14 - Minnesota: 6 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Bret Bielema (1 - 3)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MINN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -7.5 (SP+ MINN -10)
Projected Score: ILL: 23 - MINN: 28 (51)
MINN Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
ILL Travel: 422 miles

Golden Gophers (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach P. J. Fleck (28 - 20)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	Illinois vs Nebraska	+6.5	52.0	W 30 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/4	Illinois vs UTSA	-4.5	52.0	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/11	Illinois at Virginia	+10.5	57.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Fri 9/17	Illinois vs Maryland	+7.0	61.5	L 17 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Illinois at Purdue	+10.5	53.5	L 9 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Illinois vs Charlotte	-10.0	54.0	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/9	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+12.5	42.0	L 0 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Illinois at Penn State	+24.5	46.0	W 20 - 18	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Illinois vs Rutgers	+1.5	41.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/6	Illinois at Minnesota	+14.5	44.5	W 14 - 6	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/20	Illinois at Iowa	+12.0	37.5	L 23 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Illinois vs Northwestern	-7.0	45.0	W 47 - 14	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Minnesota's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Minnesota vs Ohio State	+14.0	62.0	L 31 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Minnesota vs Miami (OH)	-18.5	55.0	W 31 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/18	Minnesota at Colorado	+2.5	49.0	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-30.5	52.5	L 10 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/2	Minnesota at Purdue	+2.0	46.0	W 20 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Minnesota vs Nebraska	+4.5	48.5	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Minnesota vs Maryland	-4.0	53.0	W 34 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Minnesota at Northwestern	-7.5	43.5	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Minnesota vs Illinois	-14.5	44.5	L 6 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/13	Minnesota at Iowa	+4.0	37.5	L 22 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/20	Minnesota at Indiana	-7.5	43.0	W 35 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+7.0	39.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
Tue 12/28	Minnesota vs West Virginia	-5.0	44.5	W 18 - 6	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.14	39%	29.4	43%	2.94	195	31%	153	2.92	.32	50%	23.6	49%	52%	4.44	50.1	1.1	1.9
MINN	.24	45%	23	44%	2.97	193	47%	199	3.91	.34	51%	22.9	52%	50%	3.62	41.1	1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	8	29.4	26.6	38.6%	2.92	1.1	18	348	195	153	4.8	61%	39%	43%	31%	16%	.14
MINN Defense	7	22.9	13	50.8%	3.62	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	52%	50%	12%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	8	23.6	35.6	50.4%	4.44	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	49%	52%	14%	.32
MINN Offense	7	23	30.1	45.2%	3.91	1	22	392	193	199	4.5	61%	39%	44%	47%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	8	27:02	18	38%	47%	4.9	50.1	1.1	1.9	5.6	2.3	0	27.8
Minnesota	7	33:57	21.6	48%	54%	4.6	41.1	1	0.9	2.1	1.1	0	26.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	8	61%	43%	40.6	194.9	4.8	9	.16	2.94	74%	11%	1.11
MINN Defense	7	53%	52%	-	-	-	-	.34	3.25	83%	7%	1.09

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	8	58%	49%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.42	85%	10%	0.96
MINN Offense	7	61%	44%	42.6	192.9	4.5	19	.17	2.97	68%	9%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	8	39%	31%	11.4	24.3	152.9	6.3	13.4	10	4	.12	1.9	35%	30%	.24	5%	2.1
MINN Defense	7	47%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.34	1.3	26%	30%	.27	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	8	42%	52%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.47	1.5	25%	32%	.39	4%	2.1
MINN Offense	7	39%	47%	15.3	26.3	199.1	7.6	13	7	5	.35	1.6	26%	44%	.56	6%	2

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #64
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #99
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: Minnesota: 9.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: 4.3 Minnesota: 14.4

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 9.7 NR
Minnesota's Offense Rating: NR
Minnesota's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Minnesota's 2021 Expected Record: -
Minnesota's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.4 #18
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #63
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #8

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 28
Illinois 23

Projected Total Points: 51

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Illinois	17	Minnesota	25	Minnesota -2.5	Minnesota	47.0	Under
2023	11/04	Minnesota	26	Illinois	27	Minnesota -1.5	Illinois	43.0	Over
2022	10/15	Illinois	26	Minnesota	14	Minnesota -4.5	Illinois	40.0	Push
2021	11/06	Minnesota	6	Illinois	14	Minnesota -14.5	Illinois	44.5	Under
2020	11/07	Illinois	14	Minnesota	41	Minnesota -7.5	Minnesota	64.5	Under
2019	10/05	Minnesota	40	Illinois	17	Minnesota -14	Minnesota	58.0	Under
2018	11/03	Illinois	55	Minnesota	31	Minnesota -8.5	Illinois	61.5	Over
2017	10/21	Minnesota	24	Illinois	17	Minnesota -14.5	Illinois	48.5	Under
2016	10/29	Illinois	17	Minnesota	40	Minnesota -10	Minnesota	46.5	Over
2015	11/21	Minnesota	32	Illinois	23	Minnesota -4.5	Minnesota	47.0	Over
2014	10/25	Illinois	28	Minnesota	24	Minnesota -6.5	Illinois	0
2012	11/10	Illinois	3	Minnesota	17
2011	11/26	Minnesota	27	Illinois	7
2010	11/13	Illinois	34	Minnesota	38
2009	11/07	Minnesota	32	Illinois	35
2008	10/11	Illinois	20	Minnesota	27
2007	11/03	Minnesota	17	Illinois	44
2004	10/23	Minnesota	45	Illinois	0
2003	10/25	Illinois	10	Minnesota	36
2002	10/03	Minnesota	31	Illinois	10
2001	10/06	Illinois	25	Minnesota	14
2000	09/29	Minnesota	44	Illinois	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	14	5	4 Overs
Illinois	8	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 11	5 - 6	2 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	11 - 11	6 - 5	3 - 3	3 - 2

(#) ILL at (#) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	MINN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#64	#18
Perf GradeGrade	#53	#6
OffenseOff	#84	#7
DefenseDef	#39	#30
Spec TeamsST	#26	#34
TalentTal	#51	#43
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Illinois Injury Report

Minnesota Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#99	#8
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#77	#68
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#88

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#20
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#100	#71
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#39
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#63	#32
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#82	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#12

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#44	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#28	#31
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Minnesota -14.5 (44.5)
Illinois won at Minnesota this year (14-6)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Illinois in 2024 (25-17)
Illinois beat Minnesota in 2023 (27-26)

ILL's OC Tony Petersen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MINN's OC Mike Sanford Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD