North Carolina at Boston College Week 13 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Boston College Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA · Turf · 44,500 cap
North Carolina✈ 612 miSame TZ
21 41
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
25
Boston College
27
P&R Line Boston College -2.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 86 High
Vegas North Carolina -2 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
North Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -2
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2Boston College at Florida State+16.5W28–1350.0W28–13UY
Sat 9/7Boston College vs Duquesne-33.5W56–052.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/14Boston College at Missouri+14.5L21–2751.5L21–27UY
Sat 9/21Boston College vs Michigan State-4.5W23–1945.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/28Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.5W21–2048.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/5Boston College at Virginia+2.0L14–2452.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.5L21–4247.5L21–42ON
Fri 10/25Boston College vs Louisville+7.0L27–3154.0L27–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Boston College vs Syracuse-5.5W37–3151.5W37–31OY
Sat 11/16Boston College at SMU+19.0L28–3854.5L28–38OY
Sat 11/23Boston College vs North Carolina+2.0W41–2150.5W41–21OY
Sat 11/30Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.5W34–2350.5W34–23OY
Sat 12/28Boston College vs Nebraska+3.0L15–2047.5L15–20UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #65
+0.342
Boston College #89
+0.326
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #101
+0.395
Boston College #29
+0.568
Boston College Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #90
0.146
Boston College #72
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Boston College Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #52
+7.722
Boston College #58
+8.013
Boston College Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #80
+0.841
Boston College #93
+0.815
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #70
70.9
Boston College #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boston College Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
North Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.1
Boston College
-6.0
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
15.9
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #73
0.67
Boston College #84
0.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
0.89
Boston College #87
1.56
North Carolina +0.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
47.8
Boston College #1
43.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #79
32.5
Boston College #67
38.4
North Carolina +3.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Boston College
81.0 — 7.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Boston College won by 20
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself