Pittsburgh at North Carolina Week 6 College Football Matchup Pittsburgh at North Carolina Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 318 miSame TZ
34 24
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Pittsburgh
31
North Carolina
32
P&R Line North Carolina -1
P&R Total O/U 62.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -2.5 · O/U 63.0
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Pittsburgh wins
Strong
Game Control
49.4%
Pittsburgh wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -2.5
O/U 63.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Pittsburgh Coming off BYE
Pittsburgh 2024 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Pittsburgh vs Kent State-23.5W55–2455.5W55–24OY
Sat 9/7Pittsburgh at Cincinnati-2.5W28–2762.5W28–27UN
Sat 9/14Pittsburgh vs West Virginia+2.5W38–3460.5W38–34OY
Sat 9/21Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State-29.5W73–1759.5W73–17OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Pittsburgh at North Carolina-2.5W34–2463.0W34–24UY
Sat 10/12Pittsburgh vs California-3.5W17–1557.5W17–15UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/24Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-5.0W41–1362.5W41–13UY
Sat 11/2Pittsburgh at SMU+7.0L25–4855.5L25–48ON
Sat 11/9Pittsburgh vs Virginia-7.5L19–2456.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/16Pittsburgh vs Clemson+12.0L20–2452.0L20–24UY
Sat 11/23Pittsburgh at Louisville+7.0L9–3757.0L9–37UN
Sat 11/30Pittsburgh at Boston College+3.5L23–3450.5L23–34ON
Thu 12/26Pittsburgh vs Toledo-6.5L46–4848.5L46–48ON
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Pittsburgh #91
+0.321
North Carolina #65
+0.311
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #112
+0.355
North Carolina #101
+0.400
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #31
0.183
North Carolina #90
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #49
+8.118
North Carolina #52
+7.754
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh #85
+0.822
North Carolina #80
+0.801
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh #108
72.7
North Carolina #70
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Pittsburgh
9.1
North Carolina
-0.1
Offense Rating
Pittsburgh
19.3
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Pittsburgh
10.2
North Carolina
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Pittsburgh #6
3.00
North Carolina #73
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #82
1.33
North Carolina #49
1.00
Pittsburgh +2.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Pittsburgh #1
54.3
North Carolina #1
50.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #86
30.3
North Carolina #79
31.4
Pittsburgh +3.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
65–50 (57%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Kade Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself