Pittsburgh at Boston College Week 14 College Football Matchup Pittsburgh at Boston College Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA · Turf · 44,500 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 476 miSame TZ
23 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Pittsburgh
26
PITT +3.5
Boston College
27
P&R Line Boston College -1
P&R Total O/U 53.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Boston College -3.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Pittsburgh, while Game Control favors Boston College. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Boston College wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Boston College -3.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Boston College 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Pittsburgh 2nd straight Road Game
Pittsburgh 2024 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Pittsburgh vs Kent State-23.5W55–2455.5W55–24OY
Sat 9/7Pittsburgh at Cincinnati-2.5W28–2762.5W28–27UN
Sat 9/14Pittsburgh vs West Virginia+2.5W38–3460.5W38–34OY
Sat 9/21Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State-29.5W73–1759.5W73–17OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Pittsburgh at North Carolina-2.5W34–2463.0W34–24UY
Sat 10/12Pittsburgh vs California-3.5W17–1557.5W17–15UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/24Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-5.0W41–1362.5W41–13UY
Sat 11/2Pittsburgh at SMU+7.0L25–4855.5L25–48ON
Sat 11/9Pittsburgh vs Virginia-7.5L19–2456.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/16Pittsburgh vs Clemson+12.0L20–2452.0L20–24UY
Sat 11/23Pittsburgh at Louisville+7.0L9–3757.0L9–37UN
Sat 11/30Pittsburgh at Boston College+3.5L23–3450.5L23–34ON
Thu 12/26Pittsburgh vs Toledo-6.5L46–4848.5L46–48ON
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2Boston College at Florida State+16.5W28–1350.0W28–13UY
Sat 9/7Boston College vs Duquesne-33.5W56–052.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/14Boston College at Missouri+14.5L21–2751.5L21–27UY
Sat 9/21Boston College vs Michigan State-4.5W23–1945.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/28Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.5W21–2048.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/5Boston College at Virginia+2.0L14–2452.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.5L21–4247.5L21–42ON
Fri 10/25Boston College vs Louisville+7.0L27–3154.0L27–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Boston College vs Syracuse-5.5W37–3151.5W37–31OY
Sat 11/16Boston College at SMU+19.0L28–3854.5L28–38OY
Sat 11/23Boston College vs North Carolina+2.0W41–2150.5W41–21OY
Sat 11/30Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.5W34–2350.5W34–23OY
Sat 12/28Boston College vs Nebraska+3.0L15–2047.5L15–20UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Pittsburgh #91
+0.299
Boston College #89
+0.272
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #112
+0.361
Boston College #29
+0.578
Boston College Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #31
0.183
Boston College #72
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Pittsburgh #49
+7.749
Boston College #58
+7.676
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh #85
+0.838
Boston College #93
+0.790
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Pittsburgh #108
72.7
Boston College #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boston College Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Pittsburgh
9.1
Boston College
-6.1
Offense Rating
Pittsburgh
19.3
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Pittsburgh
10.2
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Pittsburgh #6
1.80
Boston College #84
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #82
1.30
Boston College #87
1.50
Pittsburgh +1.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boston College Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Pittsburgh #1
43.4
Boston College #1
47.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Pittsburgh #86
40.9
Boston College #67
35.5
Boston College +3.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
65–50 (57%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Kade Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself