Sat, Nov 30 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, MA
·
Turf
·
44,500 cap
Pittsburgh✈ 476 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Pittsburgh,
while Game Control favors Boston College.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Boston College wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Boston College -3.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Pittsburgh 2024 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Pittsburgh vs Kent State | -23.5W55–24 | 55.5 | W55–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Pittsburgh at Cincinnati | -2.5W28–27 | 62.5 | W28–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Pittsburgh vs West Virginia | +2.5W38–34 | 60.5 | W38–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State | -29.5W73–17 | 59.5 | W73–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Pittsburgh at North Carolina | -2.5W34–24 | 63.0 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Pittsburgh vs California | -3.5W17–15 | 57.5 | W17–15 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/24 | Pittsburgh vs Syracuse | -5.0W41–13 | 62.5 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Pittsburgh at SMU | +7.0L25–48 | 55.5 | L25–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Pittsburgh vs Virginia | -7.5L19–24 | 56.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Pittsburgh vs Clemson | +12.0L20–24 | 52.0 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Pittsburgh at Louisville | +7.0L9–37 | 57.0 | L9–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Pittsburgh at Boston College | +3.5L23–34 | 50.5 | L23–34 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Pittsburgh vs Toledo | -6.5L46–48 | 48.5 | L46–48 | O | N |
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/2 | Boston College at Florida State | +16.5W28–13 | 50.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Boston College vs Duquesne | -33.5W56–0 | 52.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Boston College at Missouri | +14.5L21–27 | 51.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Boston College vs Michigan State | -4.5W23–19 | 45.5 | W23–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Boston College vs Western Kentucky | -7.5W21–20 | 48.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Boston College at Virginia | +2.0L14–24 | 52.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/17 | Boston College at Virginia Tech | +8.5L21–42 | 47.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Fri 10/25 | Boston College vs Louisville | +7.0L27–31 | 54.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Boston College vs Syracuse | -5.5W37–31 | 51.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Boston College at SMU | +19.0L28–38 | 54.5 | L28–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Boston College vs North Carolina | +2.0W41–21 | 50.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Boston College vs Pittsburgh | -3.5W34–23 | 50.5 | W34–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | Boston College vs Nebraska | +3.0L15–20 | 47.5 | L15–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Pittsburgh Edge
Pittsburgh +1.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +3.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
65–50 (57%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Kade Bell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Randy Bates
Yr 3
#1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Will Lawing
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Lewis
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

