Georgia Tech at North Carolina Week 7 College Football Matchup Georgia Tech at North Carolina Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 337 miSame TZ
41 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia Tech
29
UNC +3.5
North Carolina
30
P&R Line Georgia Tech -0
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Georgia Tech -3.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Georgia Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Georgia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Georgia Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Georgia Tech wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -3.5
O/U 60.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 North Carolina 2nd straight Home Game
Georgia Tech 2024 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24Georgia Tech vs Florida State+10.0W24–2154.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/31Georgia Tech vs Georgia State-20.5W35–1257.0W35–12UY
Sat 9/7Georgia Tech at Syracuse-2.5L28–3160.5L28–31UN
Sat 9/14Georgia Tech vs VMI-42.5W59–753.5W59–7OY
Sat 9/21Georgia Tech at Louisville+9.5L19–3156.0L19–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Georgia Tech vs Duke-10.0W24–1452.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/12Georgia Tech at North Carolina-3.5W41–3460.5W41–34OY
Sat 10/19Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame+14.0L13–3149.5L13–31UN
Sat 10/26Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech+11.0L6–2152.0L6–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Georgia Tech vs Miami+9.5W28–2364.5W28–23UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/21Georgia Tech vs NC State-7.5W30–2951.5W30–29ON
Fri 11/29Georgia Tech at Georgia+17.5L42–4448.5L42–44OY
Fri 12/27Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt-3.0L27–3549.0L27–35ON
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia Tech #36
+0.413
North Carolina #65
+0.358
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #26
+0.583
North Carolina #101
+0.436
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #78
0.153
North Carolina #90
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Georgia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #35
+8.266
North Carolina #52
+8.047
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #29
+0.864
North Carolina #80
+0.842
Georgia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #113
72.9
North Carolina #70
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Georgia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia Tech
1.1
North Carolina
-0.2
Offense Rating
Georgia Tech
14.2
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia Tech
13.1
North Carolina
16.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia Tech #79
1.00
North Carolina #73
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #34
0.60
North Carolina #49
1.20
Georgia Tech +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia Tech #1
47.4
North Carolina #1
45.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #52
31.9
North Carolina #79
35.0
Georgia Tech +1.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Tech
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia Tech
10.4 — 71.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia Tech won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Georgia Tech, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
11–10 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 2 #1
DC Tyler Santucci Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself