Boston College at Missouri Week 3 College Football Matchup Boston College at Missouri Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Faurot Field Columbia, MO · Turf · 71,168 cap
Boston College✈ 1,131 mi-1 hr TZ
21 27
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Boston College
19
Missouri
32
P&R Line Missouri -13.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri -14.5 · O/U 51.5
Matchup Prediction
Missouri has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Missouri wins
Solid
Game Control
50.6%
Missouri wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Missouri -14.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Missouri · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Missouri 3rd straight Home Game
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2Boston College at Florida State+16.5W28–1350.0W28–13UY
Sat 9/7Boston College vs Duquesne-33.5W56–052.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/14Boston College at Missouri+14.5L21–2751.5L21–27UY
Sat 9/21Boston College vs Michigan State-4.5W23–1945.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/28Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.5W21–2048.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/5Boston College at Virginia+2.0L14–2452.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.5L21–4247.5L21–42ON
Fri 10/25Boston College vs Louisville+7.0L27–3154.0L27–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Boston College vs Syracuse-5.5W37–3151.5W37–31OY
Sat 11/16Boston College at SMU+19.0L28–3854.5L28–38OY
Sat 11/23Boston College vs North Carolina+2.0W41–2150.5W41–21OY
Sat 11/30Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.5W34–2350.5W34–23OY
Sat 12/28Boston College vs Nebraska+3.0L15–2047.5L15–20UN
Missouri 2024 Schedule
Missouri's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Missouri vs Murray State-50.5W51–062.5W51–0UY
Sat 9/7Missouri vs Buffalo-34.5W38–053.5W38–0UY
Sat 9/14Missouri vs Boston College-14.5W27–2151.5W27–21UN
Sat 9/21Missouri vs Vanderbilt-17.5W30–2752.0W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Missouri at Texas A&M+3.0L10–4147.5L10–41ON
Sat 10/12Missouri at Massachusetts-27.0W45–354.0W45–3UY
Sat 10/19Missouri vs Auburn-3.5W21–1749.5W21–17UY
Sat 10/26Missouri at Alabama+16.0L0–3451.5L0–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Missouri vs Oklahoma+3.5W30–2341.5W30–23OY
Sat 11/16Missouri at South Carolina+10.5L30–3442.5L30–34OY
Sat 11/23Missouri at Mississippi State-9.5W39–2058.0W39–20OY
Sat 11/30Missouri vs Arkansas-3.5W28–2151.5W28–21UY
Mon 12/30Missouri vs Iowa-1.0W27–2441.0W27–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Missouri PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Missouri
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Boston College #89
+0.269
Missouri #70
+0.335
Missouri Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #29
+0.571
Missouri #66
+0.490
Boston College Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Boston College #72
0.157
Missouri #32
0.183
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Missouri Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #58
+7.379
Missouri #68
+7.558
Missouri Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Boston College #93
+0.815
Missouri #54
+0.862
Missouri Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Boston College #41
69.7
Missouri #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Missouri Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Missouri Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Boston College
-6.0
Missouri
12.2
Offense Rating
Boston College
10.7
Missouri
20.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Boston College
16.8
Missouri
8.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Missouri Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Boston College #84
1.00
Missouri #30
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #87
1.00
Missouri #54
0.00
Missouri +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Boston College #1
85.1
Missouri #1
89.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #67
5.9
Missouri #60
4.0
Missouri +4.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Missouri
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Missouri
49.4 — 30.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Missouri won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Missouri, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
28–21 (57%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kirby Moore Yr 2 #1
DC Corey Batoon Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself