UConn at North Carolina Week 1 College Football Matchup UConn at North Carolina Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 28 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Fenway Park Boston, MA · Turf · 38,073 cap
UConn✈ 87 miSame TZ North Carolina✈ 615 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
27 14
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UConn
26
UNC -2
North Carolina
29
P&R Line North Carolina -3
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas North Carolina -2 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
UConn has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UConn entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UConn wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
UConn wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -2
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UConn · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 North Carolina 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 UConn 3rd straight Road Game
UConn 2024 Schedule
UConn's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UConn at Maryland+19.0L7–5045.5L7–50ON
Sat 9/7UConn vs Merrimack-14.5W63–1744.5W63–17OY
Sat 9/14UConn at Duke+17.5L21–2646.5L21–26OY
Sat 9/21UConn vs Florida Atlantic-1.0W48–1446.0W48–14OY
Sat 9/28UConn vs Buffalo-6.0W47–344.5W47–3OY
Sat 10/5UConn vs Temple-17.5W29–2049.0W29–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19UConn vs Wake Forest+2.5L20–2355.5L20–23UN
Sat 10/26UConn vs Rice-6.5W17–1047.0W17–10UY
Fri 11/1UConn vs Georgia State-7.0W34–2748.0W34–27ON
Sat 11/9UConn at UAB-7.5W31–2354.0W31–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UConn at Syracuse+10.0L24–3153.0L24–31OY
Sat 11/30UConn at Massachusetts-9.5W47–4249.5W47–42ON
Sat 12/28UConn vs North Carolina+2.0W27–1453.5W27–14UY
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UConn PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UConn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UConn #67
+0.363
North Carolina #65
+0.294
UConn Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UConn #85
+0.449
North Carolina #101
+0.333
UConn Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UConn #53
0.171
North Carolina #90
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UConn Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UConn #51
+8.103
North Carolina #52
+7.440
UConn Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UConn #82
+0.823
North Carolina #80
+0.813
UConn Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UConn #17
68.5
North Carolina #70
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UConn Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
North Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UConn
-3.8
North Carolina
-0.2
Offense Rating
UConn
13.2
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UConn
17.1
North Carolina
16.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UConn Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UConn #72
1.36
North Carolina #73
0.64
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UConn #53
1.09
North Carolina #49
0.91
UConn +0.73
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UConn Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UConn #1
44.1
North Carolina #1
42.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UConn #69
39.9
North Carolina #79
37.5
UConn +1.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UConn, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UConn
Jim L. Mora #1
9–16 (36%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Gordon Sammis Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Brock Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself