Boston College at Virginia Week 6 College Football Matchup Boston College at Virginia Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Scott Stadium Charlottesville, VA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Boston College✈ 488 miSame TZ
14 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Boston College
27
BC +2
Virginia
24
P&R Line Boston College -3
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia -2 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Virginia has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Virginia entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Virginia wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Virginia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Virginia -2
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Boston College · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Virginia Coming off BYE
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2Boston College at Florida State+16.5W28–1350.0W28–13UY
Sat 9/7Boston College vs Duquesne-33.5W56–052.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/14Boston College at Missouri+14.5L21–2751.5L21–27UY
Sat 9/21Boston College vs Michigan State-4.5W23–1945.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/28Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.5W21–2048.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/5Boston College at Virginia+2.0L14–2452.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.5L21–4247.5L21–42ON
Fri 10/25Boston College vs Louisville+7.0L27–3154.0L27–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Boston College vs Syracuse-5.5W37–3151.5W37–31OY
Sat 11/16Boston College at SMU+19.0L28–3854.5L28–38OY
Sat 11/23Boston College vs North Carolina+2.0W41–2150.5W41–21OY
Sat 11/30Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.5W34–2350.5W34–23OY
Sat 12/28Boston College vs Nebraska+3.0L15–2047.5L15–20UN
Virginia 2024 Schedule
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia vs Richmond-21
Sat 9/7Virginia at Wake Forest-1.5W31–3055.5W31–30ON
Sat 9/14Virginia vs Maryland-2.5L13–2755.5L13–27UN
Sat 9/21Virginia at Coastal Carolina-3.5W43–2452.0W43–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Virginia vs Boston College-2.0W24–1452.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/12Virginia vs Louisville+7.0L20–2454.0L20–24UY
Sat 10/19Virginia at Clemson+20.0L31–4857.5L31–48OY
Sat 10/26Virginia vs North Carolina-3.5L14–4158.5L14–41UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Virginia at Pittsburgh+7.5W24–1956.5W24–19UY
Sat 11/16Virginia at Notre Dame+20.5L14–3551.0L14–35UN
Sat 11/23Virginia vs SMU+11.5L7–3354.5L7–33UN
Sat 11/30Virginia at Virginia Tech+4.5L17–3744.5L17–37ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Boston College PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Boston College
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Boston College
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boston College
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Boston College #89
+0.422
Virginia #102
+0.280
Boston College Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #29
+0.712
Virginia #122
+0.338
Boston College Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Boston College #72
0.157
Virginia #91
0.145
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Boston College Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #58
+8.038
Virginia #106
+7.113
Boston College Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Boston College #93
+0.835
Virginia #103
+0.822
Boston College Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Boston College #41
69.7
Virginia #61
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boston College Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Boston College
-6.1
Virginia
7.0
Offense Rating
Boston College
10.7
Virginia
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Boston College
16.8
Virginia
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Boston College #84
0.50
Virginia #65
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #87
1.00
Virginia #83
1.00
Virginia +1.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Boston College #1
46.9
Virginia #1
56.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #67
34.3
Virginia #117
30.9
Virginia +9.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Virginia
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boston College
18.6 — 69.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Virginia won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Virginia. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
6–16 (27%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Des Kitchings Yr 3 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself