Charlotte at North Carolina Week 2 College Football Matchup Charlotte at North Carolina Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
Charlotte✈ 103 miSame TZ
20 38
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Charlotte
17
North Carolina
36
P&R Line North Carolina -18.5
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 86 High
Vegas North Carolina -21.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -21.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Charlotte 2024 Schedule
Charlotte's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Charlotte vs James Madison+6.5L7–3047.5L7–30UN
Sat 9/7Charlotte at North Carolina+21.5L20–3847.5L20–38OY
Sat 9/14Charlotte vs Gardner-Webb-14.0W27–2646.5W27–26ON
Sat 9/21Charlotte at Indiana+28.5L14–5250.0L14–52ON
Sat 9/28Charlotte at Rice+4.0W21–2048.0W21–20UY
Sat 10/5Charlotte vs East Carolina+9.5W55–2447.5W55–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Charlotte at Navy+16.5L17–5157.5L17–51ON
Sat 10/26Charlotte at Memphis+17.0L28–3356.5L28–33OY
Thu 10/31Charlotte vs Tulane+14.5L3–3455.5L3–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Charlotte vs South Florida-1.5L24–5953.5L24–59ON
Sat 11/23Charlotte at Florida Atlantic-3.0W39–2749.5W39–27OY
Sat 11/30Charlotte vs UAB-1.5W29–2759.5W29–27UY
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Charlotte #116
+0.267
North Carolina #65
+0.448
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Charlotte #120
+0.338
North Carolina #101
+0.508
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Charlotte #87
0.146
North Carolina #90
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Charlotte #70
+7.913
North Carolina #52
+7.947
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Charlotte #122
+0.777
North Carolina #80
+0.872
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Charlotte #129
73.9
North Carolina #70
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
North Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Charlotte
-17.8
North Carolina
-0.1
Offense Rating
Charlotte
9.3
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Charlotte
27.2
North Carolina
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Charlotte #51
0.00
North Carolina #73
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Charlotte #80
0.00
North Carolina #49
1.00
North Carolina +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Charlotte #1
14.9
North Carolina #1
27.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Charlotte #119
61.0
North Carolina #79
32.5
North Carolina +12.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Charlotte
Biff Poggi #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mike Miller Yr 2 #1
DC Ryan Osborn Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself