Mon, Sep 2 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
Boston College✈ 1,097 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Florida State -16.5
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Boston College
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/2 | Boston College at Florida State | +16.5W28–13 | 50.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Boston College vs Duquesne | -33.5W56–0 | 52.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Boston College at Missouri | +14.5L21–27 | 51.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Boston College vs Michigan State | -4.5W23–19 | 45.5 | W23–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Boston College vs Western Kentucky | -7.5W21–20 | 48.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Boston College at Virginia | +2.0L14–24 | 52.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/17 | Boston College at Virginia Tech | +8.5L21–42 | 47.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Fri 10/25 | Boston College vs Louisville | +7.0L27–31 | 54.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Boston College vs Syracuse | -5.5W37–31 | 51.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Boston College at SMU | +19.0L28–38 | 54.5 | L28–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Boston College vs North Carolina | +2.0W41–21 | 50.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Boston College vs Pittsburgh | -3.5W34–23 | 50.5 | W34–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | Boston College vs Nebraska | +3.0L15–20 | 47.5 | L15–20 | U | N |
Florida State 2024 Schedule
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Florida State vs Georgia Tech | -10.0L21–24 | 54.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Mon 9/2 | Florida State vs Boston College | -16.5L13–28 | 50.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Florida State vs Memphis | -7.0L12–20 | 52.0 | L12–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida State vs California | -3.0W14–9 | 44.0 | W14–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida State at SMU | +6.0L16–42 | 46.0 | L16–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Florida State vs Clemson | +16.5L13–29 | 47.0 | L13–29 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Florida State at Duke | +2.5L16–23 | 43.0 | L16–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Florida State at Miami | +22.5L14–36 | 55.0 | L14–36 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Florida State vs North Carolina | +2.5L11–35 | 50.5 | L11–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Florida State at Notre Dame | +25.5L3–52 | 44.5 | L3–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Florida State vs Charleston Southern | -33.0W41–7 | 44.5 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida State vs Florida | +17.5L11–31 | 45.5 | L11–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Boston College
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Boston College
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boston College
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Boston College
7.3 — 82.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Boston College won by 15
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Will Lawing
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Lewis
Yr 1
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
31–17 (65%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Alex Atkins
Yr 3
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓