North Carolina at Minnesota Week 1 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Minnesota Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Aug 30 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Huntington Bank Stadium Minneapolis, MN · Turf · 50,805 cap
North Carolina✈ 971 mi-1 hr TZ
19 17
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
21
MINN +2
Minnesota
32
P&R Line Minnesota -11
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas North Carolina -2.0 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -2.0
O/U 52.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Minnesota · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Minnesota 2024 Schedule
Minnesota's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Minnesota vs North Carolina+2.0L17–1952.5L17–19UY
Sat 9/7Minnesota vs Rhode Island-27.5W48–047.5W48–0OY
Sat 9/14Minnesota vs Nevada-17.5W27–044.5W27–0UY
Sat 9/21Minnesota vs Iowa+3.0L14–3134.5L14–31ON
Sat 9/28Minnesota at Michigan+10.5L24–2734.5L24–27OY
Sat 10/5Minnesota vs USC+8.5W24–1745.5W24–17UY
Sat 10/12Minnesota at UCLA-3.5W21–1739.0W21–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Minnesota vs Maryland-6.0W48–2345.0W48–23OY
Sat 11/2Minnesota at Illinois-2.5W25–1747.0W25–17UY
Sat 11/9Minnesota at Rutgers-6.5L19–2644.5L19–26ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Minnesota vs Penn State+11.0L25–2645.0L25–26OY
Fri 11/29Minnesota at Wisconsin-1.5W24–740.5W24–7UY
Fri 1/3Minnesota vs Virginia Tech-10.0W24–1043.5W24–10UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Minnesota PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Minnesota
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Minnesota
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Minnesota
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #65
+0.272
Minnesota #64
+0.366
Minnesota Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #101
+0.314
Minnesota #58
+0.495
Minnesota Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #90
0.146
Minnesota #18
0.194
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Minnesota Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #52
+7.394
Minnesota #27
+8.398
Minnesota Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #80
+0.808
Minnesota #39
+0.854
Minnesota Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #70
70.9
Minnesota #78
71.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Minnesota Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Minnesota
6.0
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Minnesota
16.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Minnesota
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #73
0.00
Minnesota #46
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
0.00
Minnesota #37
0.00
North Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
0.0
Minnesota #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #79
0.0
Minnesota #36
0.0
North Carolina +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Minnesota
32.5 — 27.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Carolina won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Minnesota, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Minnesota
P. J. Fleck #1
50–34 (60%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. Yr 2 #1
DC Corey Hetherman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself