North Carolina at Virginia Week 9 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Virginia Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 26 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Scott Stadium Charlottesville, VA · Turf · 61,500 cap
North Carolina✈ 149 miSame TZ
41 14
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
29
UNC +3.5
Virginia
26
P&R Line North Carolina -3
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia -3.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia, while Game Control favors North Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Virginia wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
North Carolina wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Virginia -3.5
O/U 58.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → North Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 North Carolina Coming off BYE
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Virginia 2024 Schedule
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia vs Richmond-21
Sat 9/7Virginia at Wake Forest-1.5W31–3055.5W31–30ON
Sat 9/14Virginia vs Maryland-2.5L13–2755.5L13–27UN
Sat 9/21Virginia at Coastal Carolina-3.5W43–2452.0W43–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Virginia vs Boston College-2.0W24–1452.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/12Virginia vs Louisville+7.0L20–2454.0L20–24UY
Sat 10/19Virginia at Clemson+20.0L31–4857.5L31–48OY
Sat 10/26Virginia vs North Carolina-3.5L14–4158.5L14–41UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Virginia at Pittsburgh+7.5W24–1956.5W24–19UY
Sat 11/16Virginia at Notre Dame+20.5L14–3551.0L14–35UN
Sat 11/23Virginia vs SMU+11.5L7–3354.5L7–33UN
Sat 11/30Virginia at Virginia Tech+4.5L17–3744.5L17–37ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
North Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ North Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ North Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #65
+0.461
Virginia #102
+0.302
North Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #101
+0.533
Virginia #122
+0.332
North Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #90
0.146
Virginia #91
0.145
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #52
+8.116
Virginia #106
+7.482
North Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #80
+0.845
Virginia #103
+0.806
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #70
70.9
Virginia #61
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.2
Virginia
7.0
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Virginia
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
16.0
Virginia
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #73
0.67
Virginia #65
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
1.33
Virginia #83
1.17
Virginia +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
40.5
Virginia #1
40.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #79
40.2
Virginia #117
44.2
North Carolina +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
6–16 (27%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Des Kitchings Yr 3 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself