James Madison at North Carolina Week 4 College Football Matchup James Madison at North Carolina Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill, NC · Turf · 62,980 cap
James Madison✈ 174 miSame TZ
70 50
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
James Madison
25
North Carolina
28
P&R Line North Carolina -3
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas North Carolina -10.0 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -10.0
O/U 48.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 North Carolina 3rd straight Home Game 🛋 James Madison Coming off BYE
James Madison 2024 Schedule
James Madison's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31James Madison at Charlotte-6.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
Sat 9/7James Madison vs Gardner-Webb-35.5W13–650.5W13–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21James Madison at North Carolina+10.0W70–5048.0W70–50OY
Sat 9/28James Madison vs Ball State-22.0W63–756.5W63–7OY
Sat 10/5James Madison at UL Monroe-16.5L19–2148.5L19–21UN
Thu 10/10James Madison vs Coastal Carolina-7.0W39–759.0W39–7UY
Sat 10/19James Madison at Georgia Southern-9.5L14–2858.5L14–28UN
Sat 10/26James Madison vs Southern Miss-24.0W32–1554.0W32–15UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9James Madison vs Georgia State-14.5W38–753.5W38–7UY
Sat 11/16James Madison at Old Dominion-1.5W35–3251.0W35–32OY
Sat 11/23James Madison at App State-7.5L20–3457.5L20–34UN
Sat 11/30James Madison vs Marshall-2.5L33–3552.5L33–35ON
Wed 12/18James Madison vs Western Kentucky-7.5W27–1750.5W27–17UY
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
James Madison #88
+0.328
North Carolina #65
+0.221
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #99
+0.404
North Carolina #101
+0.239
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
James Madison #8
0.204
North Carolina #90
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
James Madison #66
+7.943
North Carolina #52
+7.722
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
James Madison #61
+0.841
North Carolina #80
+0.759
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
James Madison #10
67.1
North Carolina #70
70.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
North Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
James Madison
-1.3
North Carolina
-0.1
Offense Rating
James Madison
13.9
North Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
James Madison
15.1
North Carolina
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
James Madison #33
0.00
North Carolina #73
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #14
0.00
North Carolina #49
0.50
North Carolina +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
James Madison #1
51.6
North Carolina #1
59.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
James Madison #10
19.8
North Carolina #79
19.4
North Carolina +7.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
James Madison
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
James Madison
5.2 — 85.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
James Madison won by 20
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dean Kennedy Yr 1 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself