Boston College at Nebraska Week 1 College Football Matchup Boston College at Nebraska Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 28 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Yankee Stadium New York, NY · Turf · 54,251 cap
Boston College✈ 176 miSame TZ Nebraska✈ 1,187 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
15 20
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Boston College
21
NEB -3
Nebraska
26
P&R Line Nebraska -5
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Nebraska -3 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Nebraska, while Game Control favors Boston College. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Nebraska wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Boston College wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Nebraska -3
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Nebraska · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2Boston College at Florida State+16.5W28–1350.0W28–13UY
Sat 9/7Boston College vs Duquesne-33.5W56–052.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/14Boston College at Missouri+14.5L21–2751.5L21–27UY
Sat 9/21Boston College vs Michigan State-4.5W23–1945.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/28Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.5W21–2048.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/5Boston College at Virginia+2.0L14–2452.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.5L21–4247.5L21–42ON
Fri 10/25Boston College vs Louisville+7.0L27–3154.0L27–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Boston College vs Syracuse-5.5W37–3151.5W37–31OY
Sat 11/16Boston College at SMU+19.0L28–3854.5L28–38OY
Sat 11/23Boston College vs North Carolina+2.0W41–2150.5W41–21OY
Sat 11/30Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.5W34–2350.5W34–23OY
Sat 12/28Boston College vs Nebraska+3.0L15–2047.5L15–20UN
Nebraska 2024 Schedule
Nebraska's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Nebraska vs UTEP-27.5W40–749.0W40–7UY
Sat 9/7Nebraska vs Colorado-6.5W28–1055.0W28–10UY
Sat 9/14Nebraska vs Northern Iowa-30.5W34–349.5W34–3UY
Fri 9/20Nebraska vs Illinois-9.5L24–3141.5L24–31ON
Sat 9/28Nebraska at Purdue-10.0W28–1047.5W28–10UY
Sat 10/5Nebraska vs Rutgers-7.0W14–739.5W14–7UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Nebraska at Indiana+6.5L7–5648.0L7–56ON
Sat 10/26Nebraska at Ohio State+25.0L17–2148.5L17–21UY
Sat 11/2Nebraska vs UCLA-7.5L20–2738.5L20–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Nebraska at USC+6.5L20–2851.0L20–28UN
Sat 11/23Nebraska vs Wisconsin-1.5W44–2540.5W44–25OY
Fri 11/29Nebraska at Iowa+3.5L10–1341.5L10–13UY
Sat 12/28Nebraska vs Boston College-3.0W20–1547.5W20–15UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Nebraska PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Nebraska
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Boston College #89
+0.287
Nebraska #74
+0.327
Nebraska Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #29
+0.623
Nebraska #91
+0.439
Boston College Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Boston College #72
0.157
Nebraska #40
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Nebraska Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #58
+7.061
Nebraska #114
+7.019
Boston College Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Boston College #93
+0.812
Nebraska #37
+0.871
Nebraska Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Boston College #41
69.7
Nebraska #111
72.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boston College Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Nebraska Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Boston College
-6.1
Nebraska
4.7
Offense Rating
Boston College
10.7
Nebraska
18.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Boston College
16.8
Nebraska
13.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Nebraska Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Boston College #84
0.55
Nebraska #98
0.91
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #87
1.55
Nebraska #17
0.55
Nebraska +0.36
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boston College Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Boston College #1
49.6
Nebraska #1
49.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #67
33.4
Nebraska #21
29.0
Boston College +0.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Nebraska
Matt Rhule #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Satterfield Yr 2 #1
DC Tony White Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself