Boston College at SMU Week 12 College Football Matchup Boston College at SMU Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Gerald J. Ford Stadium University Park, TX · Turf · 32,000 cap
Boston College✈ 1,540 mi-1 hr TZ
28 38
Final
SMU
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Boston College
19
BC +19
SMU
36
P&R Line SMU -17
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas SMU -19 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
SMU has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor SMU entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
SMU wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
SMU wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
SMU -19
O/U 54.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → SMU · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 SMU Coming off BYE
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2Boston College at Florida State+16.5W28–1350.0W28–13UY
Sat 9/7Boston College vs Duquesne-33.5W56–052.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/14Boston College at Missouri+14.5L21–2751.5L21–27UY
Sat 9/21Boston College vs Michigan State-4.5W23–1945.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/28Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.5W21–2048.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/5Boston College at Virginia+2.0L14–2452.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.5L21–4247.5L21–42ON
Fri 10/25Boston College vs Louisville+7.0L27–3154.0L27–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Boston College vs Syracuse-5.5W37–3151.5W37–31OY
Sat 11/16Boston College at SMU+19.0L28–3854.5L28–38OY
Sat 11/23Boston College vs North Carolina+2.0W41–2150.5W41–21OY
Sat 11/30Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.5W34–2350.5W34–23OY
Sat 12/28Boston College vs Nebraska+3.0L15–2047.5L15–20UN
SMU 2024 Schedule
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24SMU at Nevada-28.0W29–2455.5W29–24UN
Sat 8/31SMU vs Houston Christian-30
Fri 9/6SMU vs BYU-12.5L15–1855.5L15–18UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21SMU vs TCU+1.0W66–4258.5W66–42OY
Sat 9/28SMU vs Florida State-6.0W42–1646.0W42–16OY
Sat 10/5SMU at Louisville+6.5W34–2755.0W34–27OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19SMU at Stanford-16.5W40–1052.5W40–10UY
Sat 10/26SMU at Duke-11.5W28–2749.5W28–27ON
Sat 11/2SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.0W48–2555.5W48–25OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16SMU vs Boston College-19.0W38–2854.5W38–28ON
Sat 11/23SMU at Virginia-11.5W33–754.5W33–7UY
Sat 11/30SMU vs California-11.5W38–654.5W38–6UY
Sat 12/7SMU vs Clemson-2.5L31–3456.5L31–34ON
Sat 12/21SMU at Penn State+9.0L10–3852.5L10–38UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
SMU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ SMU
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ SMU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Boston College #89
+0.190
SMU #38
+0.387
SMU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #29
+0.450
SMU #19
+0.602
SMU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Boston College #72
0.157
SMU #29
0.185
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
SMU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Boston College #58
+7.086
SMU #25
+8.059
SMU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Boston College #93
+0.776
SMU #53
+0.863
SMU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Boston College #41
69.7
SMU #26
68.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
SMU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
SMU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Boston College
-6.1
SMU
15.2
Offense Rating
Boston College
10.7
SMU
25.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Boston College
16.8
SMU
9.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? SMU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Boston College #84
0.63
SMU #25
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #87
1.50
SMU #22
0.38
SMU +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? SMU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Boston College #1
47.3
SMU #1
65.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Boston College #67
35.2
SMU #15
17.0
SMU +17.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
SMU
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
SMU
67.1 — 12.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
SMU won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on SMU with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
SMU
Rhett Lashlee #1
18–10 (64%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Casey Woods Yr 3 #1
DC Scott Symons Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself