Sat, Sep 14 2024
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Week 3
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🏟 Kenan Memorial Stadium
Chapel Hill, NC
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Turf
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62,980 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
North Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -37.5
O/U 57.5
ESPN Bet
North Carolina Central 2024 Schedule
North Carolina Central's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | North Carolina Central at North Carolina | +37.5L10–45 | 57.5 | L10–45 | U | Y |
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | North Carolina at Minnesota | -2.0W19–17 | 52.5 | W19–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | North Carolina vs Charlotte | -21.5W38–20 | 47.5 | W38–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | North Carolina vs North Carolina Central | -37.5W45–10 | 57.5 | W45–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | North Carolina vs James Madison | -10.0L50–70 | 48.0 | L50–70 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | North Carolina at Duke | -1.0L20–21 | 55.5 | L20–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | North Carolina vs Pittsburgh | +2.5L24–34 | 63.0 | L24–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | +3.5L34–41 | 60.5 | L34–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | North Carolina at Virginia | +3.5W41–14 | 58.5 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | North Carolina at Florida State | -2.5W35–11 | 50.5 | W35–11 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -10.5W31–24 | 64.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | North Carolina at Boston College | -2.0L21–41 | 50.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | North Carolina vs NC State | -2.5L30–35 | 54.5 | L30–35 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | North Carolina vs UConn | -2.0L14–27 | 53.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina Central Edge
North Carolina Central +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +44.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓