Sat, Nov 9 2024
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, MA
·
Turf
·
44,500 cap
Syracuse✈ 257 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Syracuse,
while Game Control favors Boston College.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Syracuse wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Boston College wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Boston College -5.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Syracuse
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Syracuse 2024 Schedule
Syracuse's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Syracuse vs Ohio | -17.5W38–22 | 47.5 | W38–22 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Syracuse vs Georgia Tech | +2.5W31–28 | 60.5 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/20 | Syracuse vs Stanford | -9.5L24–26 | 56.5 | L24–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Syracuse vs Holy Cross | -31.5W42–14 | 59.5 | W42–14 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Syracuse at UNLV | +5.5W44–41 | 55.5 | W44–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Syracuse at NC State | -1.0W24–17 | 51.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/24 | Syracuse at Pittsburgh | +5.0L13–41 | 62.5 | L13–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Syracuse vs Virginia Tech | +3.5W38–31 | 54.0 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Syracuse at Boston College | +5.5L31–37 | 51.5 | L31–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Syracuse at California | +10.5W33–25 | 58.0 | W33–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Syracuse vs UConn | -10.0W31–24 | 53.0 | W31–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Syracuse vs Miami | +12.5W42–38 | 65.5 | W42–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Syracuse vs Washington State | -19.0W52–35 | 58.5 | W52–35 | O | N |
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/2 | Boston College at Florida State | +16.5W28–13 | 50.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Boston College vs Duquesne | -33.5W56–0 | 52.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Boston College at Missouri | +14.5L21–27 | 51.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Boston College vs Michigan State | -4.5W23–19 | 45.5 | W23–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Boston College vs Western Kentucky | -7.5W21–20 | 48.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Boston College at Virginia | +2.0L14–24 | 52.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/17 | Boston College at Virginia Tech | +8.5L21–42 | 47.5 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Fri 10/25 | Boston College vs Louisville | +7.0L27–31 | 54.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Boston College vs Syracuse | -5.5W37–31 | 51.5 | W37–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Boston College at SMU | +19.0L28–38 | 54.5 | L28–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Boston College vs North Carolina | +2.0W41–21 | 50.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Boston College vs Pittsburgh | -3.5W34–23 | 50.5 | W34–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | Boston College vs Nebraska | +3.0L15–20 | 47.5 | L15–20 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Syracuse
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Syracuse Edge
Syracuse +0.72
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Boston College Edge
Boston College +1.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Mike Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Elijah Robinson
Yr 1
#1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Will Lawing
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim Lewis
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

