Louisville at Boston College Week 9 College Football Matchup Louisville at Boston College Matchup - Week 9
Fri, Oct 25 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA · Turf · 44,500 cap
Louisville✈ 819 miSame TZ
31 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisville
32
Boston College
23
P&R Line Louisville -8.5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Louisville -7.0 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Louisville has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisville entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Louisville wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisville -7.0
O/U 54.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Louisville · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2024 Schedule
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisville vs Austin Peay-38.5W62–054.5W62–0OY
Sat 9/7Louisville vs Jacksonville State-27.5W49–1456.5W49–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Louisville vs Georgia Tech-9.5W31–1956.0W31–19UY
Sat 9/28Louisville at Notre Dame+6.5L24–3145.0L24–31ON
Sat 10/5Louisville vs SMU-6.5L27–3455.0L27–34ON
Sat 10/12Louisville at Virginia-7.0W24–2054.0W24–20UN
Sat 10/19Louisville vs Miami+4.5L45–5261.5L45–52ON
Fri 10/25Louisville at Boston College-7.0W31–2754.0W31–27ON
Sat 11/2Louisville at Clemson+11.0W33–2162.5W33–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Louisville at Stanford-21.0L35–3857.5L35–38ON
Sat 11/23Louisville vs Pittsburgh-7.0W37–957.0W37–9UY
Sat 11/30Louisville at Kentucky-3.5W41–1448.5W41–14OY
Tue 12/31Louisville vs Washington+1.0W35–3450.5W35–34OY
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2Boston College at Florida State+16.5W28–1350.0W28–13UY
Sat 9/7Boston College vs Duquesne-33.5W56–052.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/14Boston College at Missouri+14.5L21–2751.5L21–27UY
Sat 9/21Boston College vs Michigan State-4.5W23–1945.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/28Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.5W21–2048.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/5Boston College at Virginia+2.0L14–2452.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.5L21–4247.5L21–42ON
Fri 10/25Boston College vs Louisville+7.0L27–3154.0L27–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Boston College vs Syracuse-5.5W37–3151.5W37–31OY
Sat 11/16Boston College at SMU+19.0L28–3854.5L28–38OY
Sat 11/23Boston College vs North Carolina+2.0W41–2150.5W41–21OY
Sat 11/30Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.5W34–2350.5W34–23OY
Sat 12/28Boston College vs Nebraska+3.0L15–2047.5L15–20UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Louisville PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisville #15
+0.454
Boston College #89
+0.333
Louisville Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisville #9
+0.641
Boston College #29
+0.618
Louisville Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisville #62
0.164
Boston College #72
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisville Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisville #31
+7.918
Boston College #58
+7.984
Boston College Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisville #26
+0.886
Boston College #93
+0.811
Louisville Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisville #41
69.7
Boston College #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisville Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisville
10.8
Boston College
-6.0
Offense Rating
Louisville
21.9
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisville
11.2
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisville Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisville #5
1.00
Boston College #84
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisville #59
1.33
Boston College #87
1.50
Louisville +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisville Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisville #1
47.8
Boston College #1
44.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisville #26
35.4
Boston College #67
39.6
Louisville +3.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisville
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Boston College
61.6 — 23.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Louisville won by 4
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisville, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
10–4 (71%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brian Brohm Yr 2 #1
DC Ron English Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself