Sat, Nov 2 2024
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
North Carolina✈ 484 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Carolina
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
North Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
North Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -2.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → North Carolina
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | North Carolina at Minnesota | -2.0W19–17 | 52.5 | W19–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | North Carolina vs Charlotte | -21.5W38–20 | 47.5 | W38–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | North Carolina vs North Carolina Central | -37.5W45–10 | 57.5 | W45–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | North Carolina vs James Madison | -10.0L50–70 | 48.0 | L50–70 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | North Carolina at Duke | -1.0L20–21 | 55.5 | L20–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | North Carolina vs Pittsburgh | +2.5L24–34 | 63.0 | L24–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | +3.5L34–41 | 60.5 | L34–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | North Carolina at Virginia | +3.5W41–14 | 58.5 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | North Carolina at Florida State | -2.5W35–11 | 50.5 | W35–11 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -10.5W31–24 | 64.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | North Carolina at Boston College | -2.0L21–41 | 50.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | North Carolina vs NC State | -2.5L30–35 | 54.5 | L30–35 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | North Carolina vs UConn | -2.0L14–27 | 53.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
Florida State 2024 Schedule
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Florida State vs Georgia Tech | -10.0L21–24 | 54.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Mon 9/2 | Florida State vs Boston College | -16.5L13–28 | 50.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Florida State vs Memphis | -7.0L12–20 | 52.0 | L12–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida State vs California | -3.0W14–9 | 44.0 | W14–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida State at SMU | +6.0L16–42 | 46.0 | L16–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Florida State vs Clemson | +16.5L13–29 | 47.0 | L13–29 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Florida State at Duke | +2.5L16–23 | 43.0 | L16–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Florida State at Miami | +22.5L14–36 | 55.0 | L14–36 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Florida State vs North Carolina | +2.5L11–35 | 50.5 | L11–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Florida State at Notre Dame | +25.5L3–52 | 44.5 | L3–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Florida State vs Charleston Southern | -33.0W41–7 | 44.5 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida State vs Florida | +17.5L11–31 | 45.5 | L11–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ North Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ North Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +0.34
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina Edge
North Carolina +27.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 2
#1
DC
Geoff Collins
Yr 1
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
31–17 (65%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Alex Atkins
Yr 3
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓