Western Kentucky at Boston College Week 5 College Football Matchup Western Kentucky at Boston College Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Alumni Stadium Chestnut Hill, MA · Turf · 44,500 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 891 mi+1 hr TZ
20 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Kentucky
20
BC -7.5
Boston College
30
P&R Line Boston College -9.5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Boston College -7.5 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Western Kentucky, while Game Control favors Boston College. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Boston College wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Boston College -7.5
O/U 48.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Boston College · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Boston College 2nd straight Home Game
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Western Kentucky at Alabama+31.0L0–6360.0L0–63ON
Sat 9/7Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-18.5W31–059.5W31–0UY
Sat 9/14Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee-10.5W49–2153.5W49–21OY
Sat 9/21Western Kentucky vs Toledo+2.0W26–2160.5W26–21UY
Sat 9/28Western Kentucky at Boston College+7.5L20–2148.0L20–21UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Western Kentucky vs UTEP-19.0W44–1755.5W44–17OY
Wed 10/16Western Kentucky at Sam Houston+1.5W31–1455.0W31–14UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/30Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State-24.0W31–1449.0W31–14UN
Sat 11/9Western Kentucky at New Mexico State-18.0W41–2853.5W41–28ON
Sat 11/16Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech-11.5L7–1252.5L7–12UN
Sat 11/23Western Kentucky at Liberty+1.0L21–3856.5L21–38ON
Sat 11/30Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State+0.5W19–1762.5W19–17UY
Fri 12/6Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State+4.5L12–5258.5L12–52ON
Wed 12/18Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.5L17–2750.5L17–27UN
Boston College 2024 Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2Boston College at Florida State+16.5W28–1350.0W28–13UY
Sat 9/7Boston College vs Duquesne-33.5W56–052.5W56–0OY
Sat 9/14Boston College at Missouri+14.5L21–2751.5L21–27UY
Sat 9/21Boston College vs Michigan State-4.5W23–1945.5W23–19UN
Sat 9/28Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.5W21–2048.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/5Boston College at Virginia+2.0L14–2452.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.5L21–4247.5L21–42ON
Fri 10/25Boston College vs Louisville+7.0L27–3154.0L27–31OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Boston College vs Syracuse-5.5W37–3151.5W37–31OY
Sat 11/16Boston College at SMU+19.0L28–3854.5L28–38OY
Sat 11/23Boston College vs North Carolina+2.0W41–2150.5W41–21OY
Sat 11/30Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.5W34–2350.5W34–23OY
Sat 12/28Boston College vs Nebraska+3.0L15–2047.5L15–20UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Boston College PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Boston College
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Boston College
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boston College
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Kentucky #66
+0.340
Boston College #89
+0.369
Boston College Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #28
+0.584
Boston College #29
+0.637
Boston College Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #122
0.125
Boston College #72
0.157
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Boston College Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #78
+7.477
Boston College #58
+7.658
Boston College Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #83
+0.840
Boston College #93
+0.856
Boston College Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #55
70.3
Boston College #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Boston College Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Boston College
-6.1
Offense Rating
Western Kentucky
11.9
Boston College
10.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Kentucky
17.3
Boston College
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Kentucky #114
1.33
Boston College #84
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #119
1.67
Boston College #87
1.00
Western Kentucky +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boston College Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Kentucky #1
48.6
Boston College #1
56.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #40
40.1
Boston College #67
24.6
Boston College +7.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
40–26 (61%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Will Friend Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Will Lawing Yr 1 #1
DC Tim Lewis Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself