North Carolina at Duke Week 5 College Football Matchup North Carolina at Duke Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Wallace Wade Stadium Durham, NC · Turf · 40,000 cap
20 21
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Carolina
25
Duke
30
P&R Line Duke -5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas North Carolina -1 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Duke has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Duke entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Duke wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Duke wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Carolina -1
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Duke · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2024 Schedule
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29North Carolina at Minnesota-2.0W19–1752.5W19–17UN
Sat 9/7North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.5W38–2047.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/14North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.5W45–1057.5W45–10UN
Sat 9/21North Carolina vs James Madison-10.0L50–7048.0L50–70ON
Sat 9/28North Carolina at Duke-1.0L20–2155.5L20–21UN
Sat 10/5North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.5L24–3463.0L24–34UN
Sat 10/12North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.5L34–4160.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26North Carolina at Virginia+3.5W41–1458.5W41–14UY
Sat 11/2North Carolina at Florida State-2.5W35–1150.5W35–11UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.5W31–2464.5W31–24UN
Sat 11/23North Carolina at Boston College-2.0L21–4150.5L21–41ON
Sat 11/30North Carolina vs NC State-2.5L30–3554.5L30–35ON
Sat 12/28North Carolina vs UConn-2.0L14–2753.5L14–27UN
Duke 2024 Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Duke vs Elon-24.5W26–347.5W26–3UN
Fri 9/6Duke vs Northwestern+2.5W26–2037.5W26–20OY
Sat 9/14Duke vs UConn-17.5W26–2146.5W26–21ON
Sat 9/21Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.5W45–1751.0W45–17OY
Sat 9/28Duke vs North Carolina+1.0W21–2055.5W21–20UY
Sat 10/5Duke at Georgia Tech+10.0L14–2452.5L14–24UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Duke vs Florida State-2.5W23–1643.0W23–16UY
Sat 10/26Duke vs SMU+11.5L27–2849.5L27–28OY
Sat 11/2Duke at Miami+21.0L31–5355.5L31–53ON
Sat 11/9Duke at NC State+3.5W29–1951.5W29–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.5W31–2845.5W31–28OY
Sat 11/30Duke at Wake Forest-3.5W23–1753.5W23–17UY
Thu 1/2Duke vs Ole Miss+17.5L20–5250.5L20–52ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Duke PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Duke
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Carolina #65
+0.251
Duke #109
+0.289
Duke Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #101
+0.226
Duke #55
+0.499
Duke Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Carolina #90
0.146
Duke #2
0.225
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Duke Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Carolina #52
+7.268
Duke #90
+7.715
Duke Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Carolina #80
+0.796
Duke #116
+0.791
North Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Carolina #70
70.9
Duke #24
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Duke Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Duke Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Carolina
-0.1
Duke
4.1
Offense Rating
North Carolina
15.8
Duke
14.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Carolina
15.9
Duke
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Duke Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Carolina #73
0.67
Duke #63
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #49
1.00
Duke #84
0.33
Duke +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Duke Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Carolina #1
45.9
Duke #1
58.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Carolina #79
35.8
Duke #68
18.9
Duke +12.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Carolina
13.9 — 70.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Duke won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Duke with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Mack Brown #1
38–27 (59%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Chip Lindsey Yr 2 #1
DC Geoff Collins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Duke
Manny Diaz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jonathan Brewer Yr 1 #1
DC Jonathan Patke Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself